weathafella

qq mentioned gfs destroyed euro on current system. Is that true? Both had big hits down there I thought.

I thought less. Boy was I wrong!

EPS mean is right over ACK it looks like. Good amount of spread still so keep your minds open.

Euro looks similar to yesterday's 0Z. A lot of taint but going by 925s there's a way to salvage decent snows left of the track.

Can we please either post in the panic thread or the 1/7 storm thread?

DCA with light rain and 46 as of midnight.

It’s 59 in RIC, now 49 at BWI/DCA, 59 at WAL. If I were one of the weenies there I wouldn’t have a warm and fuzzy feel. My call is no one in the cities of RIC/DCA/BWI exceeds 4 inches.

Currently 50 at DCA

Wrong thread. EPS is less tucked at 18z

PGW today…

Yeah that’s a great season in YBY…..

Unreadable. Just remember something about fear. FEAR often results from the acronym using the first letter of each word..False Evidence Appears Real.

That shuffle was signaled though but not timed well in th earlier guidance.

Yeah they’re up for 4-8. What a mecs....

Back to covid......daughter lost the sore throat and fever and just now has a stuffed nose. I was reading that omicron is less severe because it seems to be mainly upper pharynx sparing the lungs. That kind of matches the experience of all of my recent relatives and friends who have had it over th e holidays. Cautiously optimistic that this is the trend with variants going forward to keep viable hosts. Hopefully when it hits largely unvaccinated areas it stays this way and we get some accurate reporting from mainstream soursces.

Why are we fighting over an ensemble position 5 days out? Don’t you think +/- 150 miles is still on the table?

I think there’s too much distance between the events. I think the idea of a hugger is more viable than ots at this point.

Euro/CMC/uncle are nice hits. Toss then outlier

How many pages on an iffy maybe few inches for a small area of New England? Longer range looking good though and that’s all I care about today.

It's like old times. GFS had it and lost it way out to sea or no storm, the rest of the models have variations of a big hit for humans in New England. Euro has been reasonably steady with minor variations. Let's see if it can stay that way. Pattern change FINALLY en route.

Yeah the 0C line gets to just south of the Pike before retreating. But 5 days out a lot of changes can happen. UKMET/CMC were nice hits. We have reasonable consensus on plowable snow. Time to charge up the snow blower batteries....

Actually per snow Algo even on the stingiest it’s better than you depict. I’m ok with it at this point in time. I think Narcan has 3.4 for BOS which should be more for you and even me. But at this time frame I’m happy it’s an event.

Euro not printing out on SV

SMH violently....

1-3 is big these days. But that's an inch of qpf over the 6 hour period from 6-12z at the height so that ain't hay!