Models don’t matter. A moderate to strong low like that will send waa moisture our way. They almost always do and it’s the wrong idea from the models that it won't this time. What that means afterward I can’t say but there will be a fast onset of snow/sleet for DC of steady-moderate duration and intensity and then what happens next is what happens next
Last 15 mins is an evolution to all frozen at 2:15 and temp down 5 degrees in last 75 minutes. Frozen is icy but some nickles starting to show up.
i do s melt count on the board in these circumstances and went from instant melt at 1:45 to 12 seconds at 2:15
Down to 36.5