wawarriors4

1.28” so far down here around FXBG, brings the monthly total to an even 7.00”

Don't know if it matters down toward FXBG, but sun came out and we are at 67/48.

Ended up with 0.68" of rain (a lot more than I expected) from last night into this morning, it mixed with some snow toward the tail end so I guess I could record a trace of snow as well.

Really good storm moving through just NW of Fredericksburg right now. Heavy Rain, Lightning, Thunder and just had a 44 mph wind gust.

ETA: Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1247607555137757184/photo/1

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll be here for you when the inevitable happens.   

Anybody buying into this is brave.  Crazy.  But brave.  And I salute you.    I'll be around for the counseling.  

I’m so pessimistic on this whole thing, but what else is there to track so.....all in I guess

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I already regret the above post.

 

Either way... I’m officially beyond interested as a joke. Couple more north bumps and I’ve got my second best event of the year.

 

If it was us in the jackpot zone, we’d be sweating these north trends a little bit.

 

I was casually interested, now I’m a bit more than casually interested, but with the way this winter has gone, I won’t feel great about it til it melts Saturday, lol. Been some good North bumps so far, Here’s hoping they continue.

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO suggesting 2-3 inches of rain upcoming... turrible

you don't happen to have a QPF total map? 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

Its for this alone I don't hold much hope around Fredericksburg. Snow TV/White Rain yes, but with the airmasses we've had, anything more than that feel like a pipe dream unless things change (here's to hoping)

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro crushes the DC south and sw burbs with rain . Its showing 4 to 4.5 " in several spots and that's only thru Fri 12z . Wish it was snow lol 

Edit ...actually lollies of 5.5 inches 

Yeah, been following that a bit. Thinking river flooding (in addition to flash flooding) may become an issue later this week. It’s not winter weather but at least it’s boring weather. 5 inches of rain in some places in about 36-48 hours or so according to EURO

25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This is random but does anyone remember that really isolated snow event that hit west of Philly I believe? I want to say it was a decade or more ago possibly. From what I remember, it was some fluke snow band that just sat over a small area and dumped snow. I think there were reports of like 15 inches.

Think you’re referring to February 2009 around Lancaster, PA. Narrow band set up and absolutely dumped on parts of Lancaster and Chester county.

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

You’re not kidding. Grew up near Scranton, PA. Was 7 for 1993 and 10 for 1996. In high school for PD2. Then I decided to go to school in San Antonio and love there for a year after school (2004-2009), it was a great time, but dang did I miss big east coast snow storms. Got a job and moved to DC in August 2009, wow what a year to move to DC. Lived in Philly for 12/2010 and 1/2011. And now I find my self outside Fredericksburg. 2016 was great, but man oh man, I cannot wait for the next one. That’s what keeps me going, knowing eventually everything will line up and we will get buried again. You’re absolutely right, you can never get enough!

Light Snow and 29, NW of Falmouth, VA

eta: shocked it’s snow for the time being, because the band around 5:30 am was heavy sleet.

2nd eta: sleeting now....so about ten minuets of snow, then sleet and now again back to mostly snow. 

Heavy Sleet 28 degrees

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

For comparison, this is EZF at the same time frame. Still not much of a warm nose at there at 18z, it's probably sleet in EZF

Just now, stormtracker said:

I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it.  

Agreed, this as is, is pretty nice, but there is definitely room to improve further......hopefully.

The 6z GEFS shows snow in Mexico City, I know it's like 7,000 feet in elevation, but how often does Snow in Mexico City happen?

11/12- T

12/11- 0.2”

1/7- 1.0”

Total- 1.2”

Right at 1.0” here in Stafford

Heavy Snow and 32 just NW of Fredericksburg 

ETA: roads have caved

Still Heavy Rain NW of FXBG, 36

Rain and now 37 in FXBG

Edit: Now Pouring Rain

Rain and 39 in FXBG

Just now, stormtracker said:

Tell me about it......31/20

33/19 here in Stafford just NW of FXBG. Very nice temp drop.