wawarriors4

12z GFS gets cutoff into central Spotsy which is a bit North of 6z run....I will count the flakes that fall and record my trace haha

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Route 28 wall.  I stopped on every frame.  I live north of Route 28.  Tomorrow should be a hoot. 

I’m slightly more optimistic in Fredericksburg, but it may mean seeing heavy flurries instead of stray flurries

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I really wish the GGEM was a good model.  Has 0.5" to Woodbridge or so.  ~0.2" to DC.

Me too, but I won't bet the farm on it....

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one here wants you to do any posts

I want to like this so many more times than the 1 time I can

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You are asking me? Wag 3-5 just north 4-6 central 5-8 south.  My house 2-4 inches of tears.  I do think the storm will be a tick further north but not enough for anything meaningful above EZF.  1-3 there with more in Spotsy less in Stafford.  This is a sharp cutoof storm and hallucinations of its coming north will fun...until they are not fun. You’ll be shoveling I think. 

That NAM run had like 8” at Lake Anna in Southern Spotsy, 2” where I live in Southern Stafford and nothing at Garrisonville Rd in North’s Stafford. It’s wild, I’d be happy with 2”. The brick wall presentation is amazing....

Its funny when people in the SE forum are more worried about Ji than the incoming winter storm....

FV-3 is around 2-3" in EZF, seems plausible, but I'm not really confident. Cant wait for the EURO to see if it nudges anything anywhere....

The freakouts in other regions have nothing on us here in the Mid-Atlantic, it's comforting to know we rock at something winter related other than Wind....

13 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’d be out if i was North of DC. But being 30 miles south of the city i still have a punchers chance of being on the Northern fringe. So I’m in for a couple more days.

Thats about how I feel too, being near EZF feel like I still have an outside chance at maybe an inch.......

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup.  At the moment I think hoping that the QPF max is over DC-Balt is pretty big reach.  But I think we're still very much in the game to have that northern edge/cutoff draped somewhere through the region.  

Where that cutoff will be is the big question. Feel it will be just South of EZF, but that’s a wag. Wouldn’t shock me to see DC in like a 2-4” range when all said and done with amounts a bit higher as you head toward EZF. But that’s all just a guess...

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS seems to be trending. Fingers crossed that continues at 12z. Ukie aside, we do seem to have gotten rid of the WAY far south solutions that don’t get precip north of the Va/NC line in the last day. Consensus right now puts the cutoff between shoveling and tears between RIC and EZF.

I want to feel good about getting some snow around EZF but as you said, just have a feeling the cutoff will be a little South of EZF. FV-3 did come North some though, we will see how the EURO looks in a bit.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

FV3 pushing the 1" qpf line to EZF is very encouraging... The rabbit hole is open for business again. 

This has the feeling for the EZF area of rooting for a North trend and then it goes too far North and we worry about mixing issues. I like where we all sit right now. 1" really close on FV-3 and CMC is a big hit around Fredericksburg.....

View from work in Spotsylvania County........

And promptly back to sleet and rain inn stafford

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Unless ground truth is different CC radar shows the sleet line here:

We have sleet with snow starting to mix back in down here in Stafford, near Fredericksburg. Precip picked up and so did the snow flakes

Shocked at the WWA for down here around Fredericksburg. Was expecting a Flood Watch honestly, we will see what happens. Its 40/19 so theres plenty of potential to wetbulb.....

Another 1 inch rainfall day in Stafford.

1.58" yesterday 

1.02" and counting so far today. 

Installed my new PWS on September 8 and in just under two months have 17.06" of rain, yard is disgustingly muddy

1.19 inches of rain so far today, didn't really pay attention to how much we could get this morning. The mud pit has returned to my yard......

http://www.citizensvoice.com/news/storm-damage-reported-in-wilkes-barre-twp-1.2349369

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

Bad situation up in PA in W-B

 

My hometown....it’s absolutely awful. Sounds like their could be lots of injuries to go along with a lot of damage. 

Just now, yoda said:

Thats the 1630 OTLK

Yep, interesting......we've heated up quickly down here around Fredericksburg

Seems the enhanced area was expanded locally

My latest forecast...

I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. 

 

snowmaps.jpg

Interesting stuff about a slower cold front passage, hadn't thought about that in relation to this wave. It is still 52 here in Spotsylvania (just outside EZF) hoping for maybe a little Snow TV/Flurries.....good luck over on the Eastern Shore!

In all seriousness, I wish there was more talk about NHK and SBY in addition to DCA/IAD/BWI/RIC/CHO

EZF is probably closest that is talk about enough but even there, it is still like 60 miles away from NHK and 100 from SBY.......