wawarriors4

Just now, Convicted said:

What is the second number when you all are saying the temperature?

Dew Point

Awaiting my rain and non accumulating something, 39/28 just NW of FXBG

Just now, Deer Whisperer said:

I can make a case for Prince William as a challenger for the title

Stafford and Fredericksburg too

EZF is the center of the screw zone on the EURO....

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is going to be a dead zone that misses/mostly misses both waves.

Yeah, have been fearing that all along. That dead zone sets up pretty much over mby. Frustrating at time, but we will see how it works out.

30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is so very interesting 

That’s the best troll job for Stafford County I have seen yet, and seems about right.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

First guess? When does he plan on making an actual forecast? After the storm?

Saturday during our sleet bomb!

Really though, I’d love this forecast if I thought it had even a 5% chance of verifying 10” for mby. With the preponderance of guidance all moving away from high qpf/snow totals, I’m not sure how useful this type of first guess is....

This seems loltastic 

Some of the posts in the main thread just........

Moderate Snow and 32 just NW of Fredericksburg 

Rain/snow mix 34

Rain and 36 NW of Fredericksburg 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is going to be a run where people west of the Fall line will appreciate. Looks like a nice hit incoming for I-95 east to Cambridge. S/w is beginning to take a negative tilt beyond that point I mentioned yesterday (Longitudinally from Nashville/Indy on east). 

The NAM seems like a good hit even here just a little NW of Fredericksburg, as you mentioned the S/W is beginning to tilt negatively in a pretty good spot for our area. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Berks county always does well up there 

Brother lives east of Reading, pictures he sent was easily 18+ there

Snow just NW of Fredericksburg, everything coated again, 

SN/29

Band really developing in Stafford County, interesting to see what it's like when it move through. It's just North of me.

Actually getting some Light Snow now just NW of Fredericksburg, driveway starting to dust up, 29 degrees.

This is unexpected...

Just measured at 1:30 here NW of FXBG. 
 

5.1” and currently 29 with a light snow/sleet mix

Up over 2” here NW of Fredericksburg,

Snow and 27

Just went to moderate almost Heavy Snow 

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

One of the pieces of guidance I like to look at and others should too is the HRW WRF-NSSL which does a fairly decent job in the mesoscale and isn't as prone to crazy convective feedback issues like some of the CAM's. It's a pretty areawide 5-8" through 00z Tuesday with more snow afterwards, but the run ends since it only goes out to 48 hrs. It has you in 4-6" fairly easily. I'd be curious to see it's 12z run. I'm dissecting the HREF next and seeing what kind of signals I can deduce in terms if WAA snow, then coastal in a probabilistic sense. I'm going to try to make a rough map forecast, albeit late, for what I think might occur. I still want to see a picture of your house in the snow  

Thanks @MillvilleWx and everyone for the awesome analysis! Much appreciated!

Light Snow and 28 NW of Fredericksburg 

Meso for SW part of forum

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0049.html

About and inch and Light Snow, just NW of FXBG, 28.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gonna do my best to make the NOVA people sad they wanted me to leave. Gotta will an opposite jinx into existence. CHO gained 3" on the WAA from 18z. 10" just to my north. Make it happen.

Thumppin Baby! Almost 8" around FXBG good stuff. Juicy......

28/13