wawarriors4

54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday.

Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out.....

Definitely more than Wednesday here in Stafford County, a nice dusting overnight.

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Heavy snow shifts to NE PA/SE NY tonight. Those areas look good for 20"+.

Yeah, absolutely, my parents live between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, in Pittston. Expecting 18-24, can't wait to see the pics they send while I enjoy 32 and a little glaze on the trees.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some good news, especially for the I-95 crew and the immediate low landers. Frederiskcburg and Louisa, VA were -RA at the start but once the heavier precip moved in they've not flipped to -SN. Even Quantico, which is right on the river, has -SN now so there might be a bit more 'boom' with the snow thanks to the earlier onset.

Sleet here at the moment a little NW of Fredericksburg and 29 degrees

Flurries near Hartwood, VA (Stafford County)

29/26

26/22 NW of Fredericksburg a bit

Just now, BristowWx said:

Warner than I would have thought.  26/20 here.  I look to my south for clues about my future.  Prediction? PAIN

Oh there is pain coming, but out 17 a bit in Stafford County, NW of FXBG it's 28/19

41 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey all. I’m chasing this storm up from Philly. I don’t want to drive more than 3 hours tops. I was thinking either poconos, but also Williamsport or around the Harrisburg region. Any spots you’d recommend based on current data? I’m a little worried in E PA about the deformation zone lifting farther N than anticipated, but that’d still be better for c pa. Can’t decide! I’d be leaving early  tomorrow morning so still time to get some model runs in.

Hazleton, PA might be a great spot it has elevation and looks to be in a good spot.

My parents are in Pittston, PA (between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton) they look to be in a great spot as well. Wish I could be there to see this, enjoy this PA!

I asked in jest yesterday, today not so much.

When does the flood watch start? We are up over an inch of rain here around Fredericksburg and still pouring. And Wednesday looks like at least another inch of rain.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. 

Looks great for most of sub forum, per 0z GFS, still not great here around Fredericksburg, but it’s closer than it was. Goal has always been 5” to verify a WSW, gonna be tough to do that here in FXBG.

When does the flood watch start?

Just now, H2O said:

That is still a hell of a gradient across Fx Co.  4”-12”

Stafford is wild too, nothing to like 4-5"

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Same. I’m 370-380’ two miles from 95. It helps. A lot in many situations. But still close enough to be dicey compared to the M-D line crew.

I'm at 340' about 7 miles NW of Fredericksburg and 5 miles WNW of 95. It's different down here obviously from central or Northern Maryland, but in some marginal events, 1/8/2020 comes to mind, I can go from work and white rain to my house and 2" of snow on the ground. Probably not a big difference in this coming storm, but that extra 250-300 feet really helps at times.

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event.

Not upset with that look at all. Almost warning level down here NW of FXBG 

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’s a good place to be. Region wide (sorry eastern shore) warning level event seems totally reasonable even with some mixing. Anything more is gravy. The overall setup before you get to any computer generated maps is really good for most places. 

If things go right this isn’t a pinpoint strike where only westerners get hit, it’s a carpet bombing. Of the wintry variety.  

@MillvilleWx made great points on this earlier.

That’s kind of where I am at right now, 6”+ down here just NW of Fredericksburg would be nice. I know I’m going to mix, or change to rain, happens in most big storms. Maybe warning criteria of 5”+ or really any snow would be a better bar, but either way, it’s nice to track something in December.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Euro will probably be the only one to make the I-95 folks annoyed.  Now if that sucker is cold like the GFS/CMC then.....

Absolutely, I understand what happens in these kind of storms down here around FXBG. Hope for 6"+ of snow down here doesn't seem too crazy. Here's hoping the Euro can deliver something nice here shortly.

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1337450404108509190?s=20

CWG Article

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

or sneet as we call it around here. 

Grupel or Sneet falling here in Stafford County as well, surprised me. Recording a trace, haha

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

was about to state that I think we need a thread. Didn’t want to jinx it though!

DT kind of started a thread, though I don't know if it counts, haha

3.81”here so far. Looks like we will go over 4.00” with ease with more rain inbound 

Just had lightning and Thunder down here just NW of FXBG. Radar looks like it’s about to pour here.... 1.26” so far on the day.

3.04” storm total with the overnight rain

Up to 2.46” on the day

Up to 2.04” on the day so far, heavy rain atm