wawarriors4

Appears the WWA has been expanded up I-81 corridor

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory?

 

My question too, curious how much of the QPF ends up falling into 34-39 degree air....

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro. 

 

 

The temperatures are "interesting." Has Culpeper at 16 degrees at 7AM tomorrow morning and 36 by noon falling back to 33 when precip moves in. I-81 corridor mostly below freezing when precip moves in.

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah you would need to look at temp profiles from the surface on up. If that warm layer is shallow and near the ground, and with dewpoints low as Wes said, then those temps can fall like a rock. 

Agreed, just would rather not waste precip getting temps to cooperate here along 95, but where we are headed, any snow is great. This has a feel of a rush hour WWA for the 95 corridor though too, out your way should be a decen 1-3 type WWA event.

I'd love to believe the snow maps (they show a nice event around FXBG) but the fact that most models have temperatures spike up to around 38-45 tomorrow before precip gets to I-95 gives me a lot of pause, even with lower dewpoints to start we only get down to about 32-33 along 95. Feels like an event that starts as rain or a rain/snow mix and transitions to snow just before precip shuts off leaving like maybe a slushy half inch on grassy areas. Would love to be wrong and I'm definitely hoping for precip to start as early as possible.

63 in Fredericksburg with Thunderstorms moving in from the west. Lightning showing on RadarScope our near Orange, VA. 

Solid cover on grass, trees and cars in Stafford. That’s a win, maybe 0.3” total.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??

On a positive note, at least Thanksgiving is as late as it can possibly be this year. Those panels from the 24th -27th do look great......hopefully it translates going forward.

21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Posted this in the wrong thread....moving to this one.

For all the peeps in here that have memories like an elephant....any of these dates interesting?  

11/24-25/1971 there was a pretty big snowstorm in the Northeast, dropped about 2 feet on my hometown of Scranton, PA

ETA: CWG had a write up on it a few years ago, and a few other late November/Thanksgiving snow storms

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/23/five-early-snow-storms-that-turned-thanksgiving-into-travel-nightmares/

Light Snow at work in Spotsylvania County, 35.4 

Light Snow at home in Stafford County, 34.9

Sleet falling in Stafford County NW of FXBG, temp down to 37.8

Sun out around Fredericksburg and we’ve jumped up to 80 degrees 

2.15” according to my PWS here just Northwest of Fredericksburg, definitely more than expected 

At 0.95” for the event so far and it is pouring down here around Fredericksburg 

Up to 1.51” here, judging by radar may add a few hundredths more. Good day of rain....

Up to 1.21" here just NW of EZF, healthy rain storm, probably finish up near 1.4"-1.5" of much needed rain.

Have picked up 0.52" so far just NW of Fredericksburg and it's raining nicely, been a great day so far, hopefully can go over 1.00" for the day.

Got .31" here around Fredericksburg.....the grass might not catch on fire now

Got under one of the really intense showers early tonight. Picked up more rain today in Stafford (0.76”) than I did yesterday (0.21”) go figure

Outflow boundary came through Souther Stafford and knocked temp down by ten degrees. Was around 100, now sitting at 89.6 with a small thunderstorm with a lot of thunder and lightning nearby.

ETA: much more comfortable outside 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

100 at Stafford

97 at Leesburg (JYO), Dulles (IAD), Webste Naval Air Station (KNUI), and Baltimore (BWI)

Really glad we spiked over the convective temp w/o it clouding over too much.  I always hate heat ruined by clouds in the afternoon.

I’m 5 miles from Stafford airport and sitting at 99/76. Definitely met the Heat Advisory criteria here

2.67” of rain so far, in about 45 minutes. Had an instantaneous rain rate of 6.12” per hour at one point. Crazy Heavy rain in Falmouth, VA. Happy 4th of July all!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0448&yr=2019

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

It would figure the day I’m going to the Nationals game would be the day for multiple waves of storms to happen over DC. Last night we didn’t get much rain around Fredericksburg but the light show was pretty good. How much rain we looking at, 2”+ in some areas?