Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering. I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero. Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend. Things are going to change with this almost assuredly. Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now. Also, the frames below are only snapshots. The GEM frame is the second wave. Most models had a couple of waves.
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Honestly, the cold following that type of event on the 12z Euro would be rough, rough.
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The 12z Euro is going for a glacier in North Carolina. I have seen this before in the early 2000-2010. Monster run.
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Right around 240, the 12z Euro hits us again.
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Bout time for the hot donuts sign...here we go.
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At 162, the 12z Euro has gone pretty much bonkers.
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Well, the 12z Euro is gonna have a say it appears!!!!
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12z AIFS EPS...some BIG dogs.
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Ensemble members....The 12z GEFS is almost universally KY. The 12z AIFS EPS is very much the state of TN. After yesterday's basketball game, that makes me a little nervous.
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So far at 12z...and this looks like an over-running event to me at least preliminarily. We have seen these events during recent La Nina winters, but mainly to my west. This is more of a QBO La Nina winter look.
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The 12z GEFS does not provide much support to the deterministic run at 12z, but...plenty of support exists for a slider over much of the forum area, and maybe more than one. The 12z GEM is the best cast - so far. I drops 5-10" over most of the forum. We have said more than once this winter that it resembled 95-96' (light) in many ways. That winter kind of arrived a bit after the mid point.
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The 12z AIFS Euro is why we need the GFS south of us. Need that blend! That said the 12z AIFS EURO EPS....is nice for the entire forum.
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The 12z GEM and GFS runs are excellent runs. The GFS has tended to trend north with everything this winter. The GEM is just a mauler. Right where we want them right now. There is a very good met on Volquest who is saying next weekend is showing up strongly on ensembles as a winter storm for E TN(which is where he lives...that could encompass much more area...kind of his backyard post).
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For kicks and giggles. The 18z AIFS Euro EPS....the bulk of that is after the 23rd. This is definitely on the high end of ensembles. There are other models with much less. I generally like to look at these for storm tracks. Interestingly, the Carolina storm track....most of that doesn't fall w/ the ongoing storm.
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I have said that I like the GEPS - para. Pretty big over-running event on that model - several waves. Rain, ice, sleet, snow. Yes, it is 240 and it will likely change, but....this showed up at 18z on other models.
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When you begin to see system south of the forum...that generally is not a bad thing. Need room for that to trend north.
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Let's see if the Euro AIFS can score a dub...
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Unfortunately, CPC now almost entirely refuses to used any 1900s analogs. They broke down on the 6-10 day analog package and was partially used 1994. 2014 was partially incorporated for the 6-10. 2010 was partially used for d8-14. The fly in the ointment is drought. That said, I think the STJ will give us a few chances. The d6-10 window is AN precip FWIW.
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CPC d8-14 and d6-10 analog probability maps for temps.
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Just looking through the 12z and 18z suites....there is a very strong signal for possible two shots of cold air that could push near zero temps into our forum area. This fits with recent Nina winters. I will wait a couple of days before fully embracing that look, but for now...I would say confidence is growing that very cold air may pay us a visit. Need about 48 hours more of model runs to be sure.
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It is probably over done, but there are places in the forum that are projected to be nearly 15-20 degrees BN for a 7 day time frame. There is a 5 day time frame that is over 20 degrees BN. Incredibly impressive numbers. I have to think that we see some severe winter weather somewhere in the forum with that. Very concerned about ice.
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18z GFS holds steady with its cold and wintry look.
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It is interesting that we had a cold week last week....exactly mirror to last year. On social media, an icy trail showed up from last year on this date.
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I am probably not as down on the 12z Euro. I am really just looking to see where the gradient is going to set up. I think the risk has always been that it would jog north. However, there will likely be an ebb and flow to this. Anything can change that gradient at this range. Again, I tend to think S KY is in a prime spot for the first wave of this. Just now digging through the 12z stuff after watching the basketball game.
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Yeah, man. No ice over-running. I had enough power outage stuff during Helene. The worst! But probably a good reason to follow ensembles at this point. EURO AI EPS and GEFS at 12z are pretty beefy. I have to imagine individuals within each run are showing some big solutions. I haven't looked yet.
