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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    TRI radar is lit south and east of I81. Pixie dust north and east of it IMBY…low rates here.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sorry. I am in the ops thread talking about the pattern...but here goes. The 18z 3k NAM and RGEM spread energy from east to west w/ some backing evident. I will be interested to see if this occurs. I just want to see the wind w/ the light snow in combination per @tnweathernut.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Exactly my experience, and part of the reason I really have struggled to buy-in with this. You and I both drove through the cutoff zone. It is abundantly apparent where it is...even now at this early stage. Now, if the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are right...more energy rotates back into our area overnight from slightly NE. I can't say I like seeing the cutoff already in place, but there may be more fireworks before we are totally cutoff from the lift.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I drove about 3-4 miles south of my local…huge difference in rates. Already a big discrepancy evident here.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is very close. I would think mountain communities might meet that criteria, but they guard that designation with their lives in E TN.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The northwest side of TRI has to score early with this. The southwest side(west of I81) has prolonged and strong forcing due to orographic lift on northwest flow. The snow(as I mentioned to Stove) started here in Kingsport about 1:00PM which was early for most modeling by about an hour. The original timing was....19z -12 - 5 = 2:00PM. Though the storm is unusual w/ its dynamics...the stronger accumulations near the mountains are common when the incoming system has a northwest flow forcing component. Kingsport does better when there is backing of any kind and especially if there is Atlantic input. I would think any NW facing area could score well. I have my investment low for KPT, but am pulling for the Euro w/ the same fervor that I pulled for the GFS during the last storm...and maybe a little bit of "little engine that could" embedded in there. Good luck to you all in the foothills...we will live vicariously through you!
  7. Carvers Gap
    They showed 2:00PM for MBY here in TRI and started about an hour early. I am THANKFUL for Knoxville not having snow yet. I have one who has to commute home....selfishly, I want it to wait until after 4:00PM. Knoxville could potentially do well. I think Knoxville's totals could resemble the west side of TRI.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Areas that have orographic lift, you should do really well. My concerns for west of I81 in TRI are readily apparent w/ that map. MRX downgraded Bristol's and Kingsport's max to 1-3" - lower than Knoxville's. OTH, Gatlinburg has a max of 16". There are going to be some very strong gradients over TRI...potentially comparable to the storm of the late 90s.
  9. Carvers Gap
    But I want my bonus flakes to stick. LOL! Admittedly, my standards are too high given where I live - both latitude and living next to one of the world's largest chemical plants, a large defense plant which makes "stuff" which shakes the ground on Fridays, and a big paper plant. Yes, for non TRI folks...that would be three industrial plants in addition to a natural rain shadow. We call this the EB. The pain is real! In reality, east of I81 has been bullseye so I consider any snow above 2-3" a bonus. That RAP map does not give me confidence.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Light to light-moderate(is that even a term?) snow IMBY...snow is finally starting to stick to the tops of my bushes.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yes. Point and clicks have been apparently(and significantly) downgraded west of the I40 corridor.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If I can get 2-3" out of this overnight, I will call it a day.
  13. Carvers Gap
    My point and click was dropped(max) from 7 to 3. I think the fact none of this is sticking in the valleys has them rightfully spooked. The sun is eating into totals big time IMBY.
  14. Carvers Gap
    We've easily burned through at least an inch of accumulation just with melting. When I look at accumulation maps, I am thinking...well subtract one from that number already. Not a single flake is sticking. I am surprised, but interested to see what happens when the sun angle and temp drops. It isn't even remotely as cold as I thought it would be - we are above freezing. Rates are probably 10:1 if it was sticking. Right now it is 0:1. LOL. I have seen some snowstorms start like this, and then quickly ramp up. I have also seen busts start like this....IDK
  15. Carvers Gap
    His Reelfoot Lake post about 5-10 minutes before the tornado hit there was pretty epic. He basically told everyone to tell anyone(they knew) on that lake to get off it immediately. He was very adamant, and very right.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The sun did the work today. This isn't going to stick until the sun angle goes down and the temp drops. Temps are above predictions IMBY. It is snowing, but not even thinking about sticking on anything....not metal surfaces, not mulch, not raised surfaces. Definitely not rooftops or roads. Rates should eventually overcome that, but I am surprised that the cold temps didn't allow for this to immediately stick. I am not gonna complain about the sun, because we would kind of be screwed without it. LOL. With two days of below freezing temps...rates still do matter.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Kind of surprising to see decent snow, and it not accumulating on grassy nor raised surfaces. The sun is still kind of poking through. I thought things would immediately be covered due to the very cold temps. Nope. It may stick later, but it is not right now. Knoxville folks, you are not really missing out...and I am under a decent band. It is similar to March snows where it snows all day and doesn't accumulate. Need more rates or lower sun angle.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Light to moderate snow IMBY. It is very fine and not sticking yet. Sun was out and then it was not. It started snowing immediately after that.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I was sitting here w/ the sun shining through the clouds, and noticed the sun disappear....started snowing almost immediately after. I have seen that happen only a few times...once out West.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Next weekend still looks like a pretty significant upslope event as yet another in a series of strong cold fronts impacts the region.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is just one system after another, beginning on Weds.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing reports that roads are turning white in Lebanon, Virginia.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't completely rule out something even Weds or Thurs...one scenario is a slider w/ mostly rain. Another is a similar setup, but it backs the flow as the front passes. Might be room for a slp or weak wave to ride that front.
  24. Carvers Gap
    We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???
  25. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking maybe around 2:00PM for TRI and also a friend of mine noted this as well. I would think Knoxville is a hair later than that - I hope so, because I have one commuting!!!!
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