Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp). It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro. What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana. IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across. The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z. I don't know. I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.
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I mean....the differences w/ hp over the top(especially nw of the system) from 0z to 6z are pretty startling. It was gone at 0z and is back on 6z. I have no idea why it wasn't there at 0z, and no idea why it is back at 6z.
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Substantial differences between the 0z and 6z Euro in regards to high pressure over the top. At 0z it lost it. At 6z, it's back. Not sure that changes the surface, but bizarre to see that big of a change from run to run. I'll post a thumbnail here in just a sec of the differences - majorly different. Probably why the 6z run was forced a hair south.
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I got you at 20" so far....HH FTW???
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Should be a good run. Slider.
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At 72, the surface pressure configuration is nearly identical to 18z.
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At 57 a big 1055 hp is pushing into eastern Montana and western N Dakota. Something may try to cut, but that dude is gonna have some say in that.
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I started using it after your rec. Good model.
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A little trick on wxbell...switch to mslp surface pressure and use the mouse over comparison. You can see the surface pressure about 10 mins before the surface output catches up.
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The 0z GFS is running...for those of you watching for trouble, post it here. You should be able to see differences almost right away.
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To clarify, I was comparing to 12z which is the last full run. The 18z didn't go all the way out. 0z is south of 12z.
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The 0z ICON flirted w/ a true coastal cyclogenesis. Probably some reflection west of the Apps, but the depth of cold would not allow much liquid. Severe winter storm as is. Totals are on Pivotal.
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0z ICON is on the board w/ a southerly trend.
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Ain't no way in hell I am using the NAM at range - good or bad. Haha.
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Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley. AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four. The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track. The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north. The problem is ice and lots of it. If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs. I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up. It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better. I have nod idea which, could be additional data or the absence of data.
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That dude has been bad all winter. Flips badly almost daily. I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which. He is just working for clicks.
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The 18z Euro would be a worst case scenario not because of rain...but because of insanely huge amounts of ice. That would knock power out to many, many people. I would gladly take rain over that business.
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Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things. He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day. He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.
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The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...before changing to rain on the back end. In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured. I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen. It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.
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Was just coming to comment on this. Those are all-time record lows on that map.. We rarely ever see that extreme on modeling, and have seen -10s occur about once a decade...mid 80s, early mid90s, mid-late 2010s.....I think we would have to have deep snowpack to get there. But the overall setup on modeling (HL and EPO block) would support very cold temps if we get snow on the ground. While the GFS run is over cooked, its low temps do have some support across modeling. I cannot imagine those temps w/ the power out or no alternate source of heat.
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With 12 days still to be inputed, TRI is one +3.3 after that warmup to start the month. Lows have been quiet cold this month. The interesting thing will be whether we can erase the +3.3, and I think that will likely occur. The chances for January to finish BN(maybe well below) are quite high, especially considering that today will almost certainly be well BN and added to the list tomorrow. Pretty amazing to see a reversal on the table after all of that warm weather. By the end of January, Dec/Jan may well average below normal for temps...even with the huge post Christmas chinook.
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Need a break from analyzing the growing potential of a weekend winter storm? So do I. Here is some long range stuff.... Feb 2-7....looks like we get a break and a WELCOME warmup. We may need it. Here are 30 day maps from the Euro Weeklies mean and control today. The other is the CFSv2 from lunch. There is a good chance that Feb 2-7th is halftime for winter. The Euro Weeklies control has two more substantial cold shots embedded. One is at d20-27. The 500 pattern again looks ripe for February. I have listed Feb7-March7 as the next possible big window. This runs a little bit against overall Nina climatology, but I bet you can find a group of La Nina winters which have a small cluster of very cold Februarys. In fact, this might well be a Nino pattern beginning to flex just a little. Nice EPO, NAO, AO block. Again, this is how you trap cold air under a block and send it southward. Precip during this time frame looks seasonal, and I would doubt this would be a dry time as climatology favors increasingly wet weather as we slowly approach spring. As for spring....man, it looks way out there as of this writing. Now that could change, but there are some signs winter may linger this year well into March. If this pans out, Larry Cosgrove put together a gem of a seasonal forecast. Uncanny. I don't think wx modeling can outrun the human mind - yet!
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Well, evidently the Scooters groundhog has some kind of Puxatony Phil powers. Didn't seem overly scared of his shadow, but maybe that is what happens when good folks slip you a cake bite now and then - got to stay visible.
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I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week. I should have known we were in trouble then.
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Follow that up w/ temps that barely get above freezing from Sat-Sat...and that is a big problem. Some temps almost assuredly will be low single digits or BZ for nighttime lows. Yikes.
