Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Send it, man. Bring on the 1050hp...or 1040...or 1030...or 1028....or just send a slp right up the Valley instead.
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FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.
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The 12z gfs is trying to make me feel like I live in the Sierra Nevada. 49" for TRI on that run? AIFS less but still noteworthy.
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It has been my experience with these things that it may well depend on which roads get a lot of sun and which don't regarding roads. I know they started pre-treating yesterday here. Our road crew guys have somebody who is good with weather. They didn't wait for the warning packages.
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Are precip totals going up on the short range models at 12z - both NAMs and RGEM?
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TRI gets hammered by the 12k NAM. There are considerable differences between the 12k and 3k regarding Chattanooga and TRI. I simply refer to you all who live in those places to know your microclimates. @nrgjeff- maybe he will stop in this afternoon. No doubt he is busy!
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The 12z NAM put 1.88" of ice over Chattanooga. No idea if that is right, but man.
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I pretty much knew when the 12z 3k NAM just rolled....it didn't leave them with a lot of wiggle room.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-240600- /O.NEW.KMRX.HW.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T0000Z/ Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Limestone Cove, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Hampton, Hartford, Elkmont, Cades Cove, Citico, Coker Creek, Gatlinburg, and Unicoi 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher wind gusts up to 80 mph are expected across the highest elevations of the foothills such as Cove Mountain.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ018-040>047-071>074-086-087-101-102-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Sevierville, Johnson City, Greeneville, Erwin, Hampton, Newport, Alcoa, Pigeon Forge, Citico, McMahan, Ducktown, Seymour, Cedar Creek, Parksville, Big Frog Mountain, Bybee, Neva, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Shady Valley, Reliance, Conasauga, Sweetwater, Harrisburg, Archville, Elizabethton, Bullet Creek, Hartford, Kodak, Madisonville, Happy Valley, Unicoi, Benton, Limestone Cove, Trade, Mountain City, Maryville, Doeville, Elkmont, Coker Creek, Turtletown, and Gatlinburg 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch with locally higher ice totals. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...A portion of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel will be hazardous. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 TNZ012>017-035-037>039-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-Union- Grainger-Hamblen-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Harrogate-Shawanee, Bristol TN, Paulette, Coeburn, Pardee, Honaker, Wise, Howard Quarter, White Oak, South Holston Dam, Treadway, Petros, Norris Lake, Oneida, Appalachia, Smokey Junction, Lebanon, Castlewood, Kingsport, Pine Orchard, Rosedale, Norma, Jellico, Alpha, Lone Mountain, Morristown, Luttrell, Evanston, Huntsville, Benhams, Springdale, Kyles Ford, Maynardville, Dye, Bristol VA, Bean Station, Abingdon, Caryville, Elgin, Hiltons, Big Stone Gap, Big South Fork National, Clairfield, Rose Hill, Norton, Mooresburg, La Follette, Slick Rock, High Point, Sharps Chapel, Sneedville, Russellville, Hansonville, Sandlick, Royal Blue, Fincastle, Arthur, and Elk Valley 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between a trace and 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NCZ060-061-TNZ036-067>070-081>085-098>100-240615- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.IS.W.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T0000Z/ Cherokee-Clay-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Sequatchie- Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- Including the cities of Lone Oak, Jefferson City, Grandview, White Pine, Oak Ridge, Rockwood, Fairview, Dayton, Old Washington, Lookout Mountain, Martin Springs, Bearden, Unaka, Knoxville, Loudon, Powells Crossroads, Athens, Chestnut Hill, Hiawasse Dam, Hayesville, Dentville, Harriman, Whitwell, Cartwright, Etowah, Marble, Jasper, Shooting Creek, Lake Forest, Bradbury, Monteagle, Clear Water, Andrews, Clinton, Eagle Furnace, Pikeville, Brasstown, Spring City, Signal Mountain, Murphy, Chattanooga, Dunlap, Palio, Strawberry Plains, Mount Crest, Topton, Brayton, Cleveland, Lenoir City, Kingston, South Pittsburg, Melvine, Evensville, Tasso, Dandridge, Cagle, Haletown (Guild), Violet, Big Spring, Tusquitee, Old Cumberland, and Oliver Springs 954 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 /854 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one quarter to one half of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina and East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any higher ridge tops within the warning area, along with portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, and Mowbray Mountain will have gusty winds in addition to the ice accumulation which will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages for these locations. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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I love this quote, "Luck cannot be part of your safety protocol." Modeling overnight looks relatively consistent to yesterday. The 6z GFS has zero support so far. Story continues to look like ice in the northern valley.
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Anyone know when we can start to see if reports on the ground match what modeling has....might helps us to know which model is initializing better and is more accurate?
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Kind of impressive to see how much colder the ICON is through 38....3-5 degrees over E TN. Fits the trend of models correcting colder as the event gets closer.
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Both 0z ICON and NAM are colder than their previous run through roughly 27....2-5 degrees depending on local.
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Out to 27...2-3 degrees colder over E TN than its run at 18z.
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Globals are not warm for next Thursday. I agree w/ @tnweathernut and others that this is a time to watch. It is very rare to get that type of cold without precip on the front edge of that type of front. It happens, but about 90% of the time there is high ratio stuff when this rolls in. Real feels. Again, with some snow under that...some locals may make a run at record lows which I thought were pretty safe. The GEM is the "warm model." Now let that sink in.
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I am expecting ice. Anything else is bonus! But right....the GFS is gonna need some company. It is just a conspiracy to make us all stay up late again? About one mile into my run each of the last two days, I am asking myself why I am so tired.
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Yeppers. Yeppers. @Met1985said the GFS did ok w/ a recent snow event in W NC that the Euro didn't even have I don't think. I think the Euro has better physics, and I will need it on board. But...there have been trends southward today. Also, models are cooling off the earlier part of the run....tells me there is still some adjusting occurring. Eventually, that adjusting gets here. Maybe it is hurricane hunter data. Might be a one off run. But other models are only about 50-100 miles of going east of the Apps at times.
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Nah. Nobody is worried about it. You are one of us, man. Get in there and sling it. Just be yourself. You aren't saying anything that the rest of us aren't thinking!!!!
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Maybe we need to talk about mountain waves more often. The GFS got bored and was like, "Ok. Ok. Here ya go. Just please don't make me look at another wind map from Carvers Gap."
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Just one more lap, GFS! You can do it!!! So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse. If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???
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Paging @TellicoWx...the 18z GFS says, "There ya go." Inland runner. Man, if it wasn't the GFS I would be excited. But...I have seen it pull off a stunner at this range...just enough not to ignore it. I mean we have seen that energy get right to the far edge of the eastern valley and run west of the Apps. We have seen Apps runners. So, it makes sense to have a solution or two with runs east of the Apps....I have NO IDEA if that run is right. However, we have been seeing baby steps today which are south of some modeling - not all.
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I am here for more mountain wave talk and the GFS girlfriend who just can't walk away without breaking up ten times first.
