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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right? I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.
  2. Carvers Gap
    What are you changing your tune to?
  3. Carvers Gap
    "Nothing to see here...move right along."
  4. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 12z GFS is absolutely burying your area.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Maybe we better start looking at the QPF trends? I have to think a 1040+ hp sitting to the north of this is a big problem, especially since it is well west of the Apps into the Midwest or plains.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The NBM ticking up is concerning on a lot of levels.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Remind me what that is?
  8. Carvers Gap
    That is telling. Takes how long to include the 12z data?
  9. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy is the UKMET trended strongly towards the slider camp. The GEM trended strongly towards the AIFS camp. They almost swapped spots. The AIGFS trended strongly towards the slider camp.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Does that UKMET accumulation map include ice? That map is insanity.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z UKMET absolutely buries most of the forum.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It was a strong cutter at 0z. Did it also trend south?
  13. Carvers Gap
    The bad thing about the CMC is it follows that ice w/ near record cold.
  14. Carvers Gap
    19 degrees colder in Chattanooga at 132 compared to 6z for the AIGFS and 15 degrees colder at TRI.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Oh dang. The 12z AIGFS did correct southward by quite a bit.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The snow map or the 12z CMC is very similar to the 6z AIFS. We had better hope the ice map trends that way as well! If the AIFS holds at 12z, I would say that is a somewhat of a cave by the Canadian model. One more run, and that slp likely cuts w/ that trend.
  17. Carvers Gap
    What we are seeing on the CMC is severe cold crashing into and undercutting an over-running event which doesn't get out of the way.
  18. Carvers Gap
    On the 12z CMC, we see a slight weakening of the hp to the NW of the storm by 3-4mbs. Maybe that is a trend towards the AIFS???
  19. Carvers Gap
    Haha. Same. I just don't even bother to strike it out anymore. I just assume folks see the error in my ways and politely move along!!!
  20. Carvers Gap
    This thought crossed my mind as I looked at the CMC this morning at 0z. That looks like an anafront hybrid(w/ over-running). This run wasn't necessarily more amped....it was surprisingly flatter.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Upwards of 3" of ZR in E TN on that CMC run per pivotalwx.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GEM definitely not suppressed. Big winter storm on that map at 126 on Pivotal - usually earlier than wxbell and I often forget that!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Don't want' to be bullseye w/ an over-running system at this range. Need some modeling south of us in my experience.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Of note the 12z ICON is a bit north of its 6z run but no significant change in its hp(mid 1040s). The 12z GEM and GFS are not budging w/ that hp.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just watching the GEM roll. At 72 hours, its Yukon high is smidge stronger at 1050 when compared to 0z. I noticed the same minor change in increasing expansiveness of that hp early in the ongoing GFS run. At 81, the hp is at 1053. I have to think another suppressed solution is incoming. I don't know for sure, but I would guess that.
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