Carvers Gap

One more thing in a flurry of posts, I am beginning to see evidence that the NAO may begin to fire. It is notoriously hard to predict, but it is significant in both the CMC and Euro 12z runs. It is very evident on the 12z EPS and to some extent the 12z GEPS. That is a BIG difference between the CMC/Euro vs GFS.

@John1122 is definitely on the money with the 0z GFS not even getting to phase 8. I "think" that GFS plot is hopefully an outlier. But....definitely something to keep an eye on, and as always, a very keen observation from John to spot that. I "think" the 12z GFS began to correct that. I would take the GMON above and shift that stall to the phase 7/8 border. If it was January, I would be far more concerned w/ the faster rotation into 6. But really, I am always concerned it rotates back into 6 - even if it wasn't showing it! I wonder when/if the SSW begins to show at the end of deterministic runs. By the end of next week, we may start to see that influence at the end of those deterministic runs.

I should add that climatology kind of doesn't like snow during early December in the valleys. But during the last 15 years, it has allowed for it. Anyway, this was the GMON from yesterday. 22 days in phase 8!

Pretty good 12z run from the 12z GDPS para and 12z Euro(Dr No?!)....

Glad to have you back, man!!!

Pretty chilly 12z suite incoming so far. Triptofan shut me down last night…so I missed the torch! LOL

The 12z Euro trended south and eastward. Overall, was a nice run as was its ensemble.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!! The 12z CMC looks close to something good late in the run.

The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

We all are guilty of HOT takes. I will be more than happy for this to happen every time I predict warm weather to occur. I have had some good ones, but this might be a winner from last Friday. The pivot away from BN heights over Tenn Valley has voluminous support both in width and depth in the model world. From ensembles to Weeklies....the trend is towards a standing wave SER over the SE. It can be beaten down, but it immediately returns. Maybe I should have clarified. A standing ridge over...Cuba. ->

Ah, and one last ironic thing which I am noticing(and mentioned yesterday)....I think there is the danger of suppressed systems due to the strength of these air masses. But the souther stream looks active regardless. If we can get 1-2 systems to connect with the cold, we would be in business.

The biggest things I am noticing at 12z are the potential for slp to form as cold front drags its feet across the souther Gulf states. I am also seen very cold air masses that seem to have little difficulty making it to our latitude. The cold air supply in Canada appears ample.

The 12z Euro is definitely in the CMC camp w/ a flatter wave.

Surprised we haven't had more discussion. The 12z GFS and CMC look great in the medium and long range - several good windows. The CMC actually looks good for E TN. Good 12z run so far. Euro is inbound currently.

This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting....

Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well?

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to have something similar. The 0z CMC wasn't bad either.

Overnight modeling definitely interesting.

@nrgjeff, basketball season is here! Vols get a big one against Houston. I like how they played down the stretch in that game. How are the Jayhawks this year?

It is pretty wild to see the 12z Euro as it does not get stuck loading endless troughs into the Southwest. It looks reasonable.

Amazingly, the 12z Euro has a very similar solution to the 12z GFS. And the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the area with cold throughout its 360 hour run. I think it is safe to say that modeling is "seeing" the MJO rotation now through cold phases. I am just going to have to file this one away for safe keeping. I bet if I go back through the threads, I can find a similar scenario where the MJO wasn't recognized until the "last moment." Usually, modeling(as noted the other day) will try to sustain cold while in the warm phases of the MJO. Then, at the last minute, models flip warm. I think we have seen this one, except in reverse. Now, I do think we see some warm-ups. These are deep troughs and steep ridges. That is going to move a lot of cold air and warm air into places which don't see things like that often. There is a mechanism to transport subtropical air to the Arctic Circle and a mechanism to transport Arctic air into the subtropics. During La Nina, especially early in the season before long range patterns flatten into more stable waves for winter, these wild patterns are possible. I would suspect that we see this wild pattern persist through much of December. I would definitely think an anafront is on the table. We have seen several of those recently, and the cold that is present on modeling would certainly allow for one.

The irony of looking at a monster SER for a few days on modeling…only to need a NW trend this morning. That is what makes this hobby so great and maddening at the same time. The CMC cuts west of the Apps. We prob need the GFS to stay SE of us. If that SER flexes at all, that system is going to St Louis. But the cold pressing eastward on modeling and ensembles is strong. I would suspect a system is brewing, but with model mayhem, I have no idea where it is going. I would think someone in our forum area might do ok with it.

Sitting at the dentist for a checkup, or I would post the maps. Quick glance…there are some with light amounts west of for Apps. The GFS deterministic run has some support for sure.

The 0z CMC has ice for the western half of the state and typical CAD locations of W NC. The 0z Euro is close to a storm. The 6z GFS is just cold which differed greatly from its 0z run - even just after 100h! The 0z Euro was one cold front after another. I do think the SER will flex between fronts. Could be some wild swings. Definitely plenty to look at from overnight.

Glad @John1122reminded us of the basketball game. Wow. Insanely good on offense today. You all know that I like the Euro controls. I went back to the last 7-8 runs. They are alternating almost perfectly from warm to cold...every other day. Well, here is today's, and this has support across the 12z suite(even though this was a 0z run). This is a 30 day map for the month of December. Lot of big troughs swinging through w/ the SER flexing as the cold retreats. To me at least, that seams like a reasonable pattern compromise.