Carvers Gap

Here are the winter monthly averages for TRI(so far): January -1.6F...snow 8.6 which is +5.6 AN December +0.7F...snow 0.9 which was -0.7 BN February (which will certainly modify some with WELCOMED warmed temps! bring it on) as of 2/4: -17.4F...snow is +0.4 so far February had the coldest day(regardless of month) since 2015 according to David Boyd of WCYB along w/ two record lows on Feb 1st and 2nd. February 1st was -27.8 BN and Feb 2nd was -28.4 BN. There are portions of lakes frozen solid right now which rarely freeze over in NE TN. There have been three record lows set in the 2000s at TRI....February 2026 now holds two of those three record lows. We have had back-to-back winter storms during the past two weekends...an ice storm and snow storm. It snowed again last night. I would guess MBY probably has had about 12" of snow so far this winter. Lots of nickel and dime stuff in addition to the big storm. And yes, temps after Christmas were warm, but oddly TRI didn't set a single record high here, but again....the temps for both December and January will average out BN for both months combined at TRI. With the exception of just a few days, TRI has been BN since Jan 11. This has been an impressive cold spell.

Definitely a strong signal showing up at this range. Is the Nino finally kicking in w/ the STJ starting to show some life?

Seriously...take the climate stuff somewhere else. But just so we have the record straight and don't just cherry pick....Temps are BN for DJF so far as a whole for TRI. That is just fact. TRI just booked two record lows for February to start the month. Rivers here are frozen solid here, but I bet you maybe don't know that. The last time I remember that was 17-18. Temps have been BN as a base level since Jan 11. The first half of December was BN. Definitely was a torch right after Christmas with the chinook...but again, you are cherry picking stuff. Take the rest of this garbage to the climate forum or back to your forum wherever that is.

Roads up her were/are a mess today. Snow(light) began falling last night at around 8:00PM and continued for about 5-6 hours. We got about .5-1” of snow and it absolutely wrecked I81. The rain froze on the spot as the front rolled in. That is the second time that has happened this year.

12z suite gonna make us track a system from 10 days out?! Just 40 more runs to go! LOL

Just looking at the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS....I think 0.5-1" of now over NE TN tonight is plausible.

I gotta admit. It feels good out there. After looking the Weeklies 500 pattern for March....I need to bank some warm days. Looks like cold returns after Feb 20th roughly. No guarantees.

I would post these in the storm thread. Honestly, it tells part of the story. When we look back in a few years, it will be great information.

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event. The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this. Is that the 18z RGEM?

The water main break in Fort Sanders is insane. This cold weather is doing a number on infrastructure. Go find some photos of it - WILD.

Usually takes them 1-2 days to input those.

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear. Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Great find.

We have snow flurries as well.

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history. The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB. When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

Just shuffling through wx maps and the weeklies. It looks like next weekend could be very cold yet again. Then, we warm-up during the second week of February. That has been well advertised and is no surprise. Then, sometime between d17-24 we could have another strong cool down per the Euro weeklies mean and control. That holds for roughly 2-3 weeks. Again, that really fits the winter pattern. But....changing wave lengths have the potential to create more chaos than normal within modeling. We are entering a time frame where LR modeling gets very undependable, even at the long wave level. But I do think roughly sometime between Feb 17-20 looks like the next resupply of very cold air(after this weekend). The NAO will often not be felt by modeling until just a few days prior to it strengthening. It establishes sometime (if models are correct) between Feb 8-9th. Then, I think it takes about 7-10 days for the eastern NA pattern to respond w/ a suppressed storm track.

The 18z GFS is advertising upslope next weekend for NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and IF real...likely the Plateau works itself into the equation.

Cosgrove warned on his Saturday night extended forecast that the upcoming, brief warm spell could lull people into thinking winter is over. He noted that winter should return fiercely around mid-month and last through roughly the first week of March - then we break for spring which may well be wet and stormy according to LC. I see a window around Feb 15th and one around the 21st. The last half of the month looks cooler than the first half. If we are talking 95-96 as an analog, winter came back yet again after the first series of storms during that winter. OTH, 85(also an analog) simply got warm in February. I gotta be honest....I need some warm wx for a few days. Jan31st was -20.6 BN for TRI. That is an incredible number. TRI will finish w/ 8.6" of snow for January. Amazing finish to the month given that we had incredibly warm days for Jan 1-10th. I do think we need to watch any cold front(next weekend for example) as sometimes modeling has under-modeled the cold. So far, we have had two very cold air masses strike this winter...One after Thanksgiving which lasted into the middle of December. We had about a three week warm-up, and then the more severe cold shot(currently) hit. It has lasted for nearly three weeks. I suspect we repeat the pattern one more time, but am not guaranteeing this. The Weeklies do support a cool down during weeks 3-4. But just because we warm-up for a bit does not mean snow is not possible during that "warm-up." The NAO will likely be negative which places the storm track south of its normal location. We have just witnessed one of the great winter reversals of this century after that wild chinook.

Ah, yeah. I forget he is in the TRI right now! Awesome for him!!! Weeklies looked decent. Feb10-20 there is a -NAO w/ a trough undercutting the block from Seattle to Savannah. That is often a great setup, but still a ways to go before that - so it could change. But the 500 map looks good. I always kind of find that February is a month where we look for windows of winter precip. It is also a month where the jet can buckle on very short notice - remember that February is a time when the long wave winter pattern at 500 breaks down over the NH. That means that the amplitude of troughs/ridges often increase and the frequency of those troughs/ridge can be more numerous. It can be a month of chaos. I wouldn't even worry about d10-16 right now....very likely to change many times. And this week is not without things to track. Next weekend has ago be watched. It is weird, but weekend winter storms are incredibly common as are storms on a 7 day rotation.

Tallahassee, FL, is forecast tomorrow (during the day) to have 9F wind chills. Check out their forecast discussion for today. Here are some excerpts. FXUS62 KTAE 311752 The coldest air and wind chills will arrive Saturday night with the strong cold air advection continuing as we will still have elevated winds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph through the night. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low 20s, and perhaps the upper teens. A (Hard) Freeze Warning is in effect because of these cold temperatures. This product is mainly for advisement to protect exposed plants and pipes. Apparent temperatures will be bitterly cold with values in the single digits, ranging from 3 to 7 degrees! Hypothermia onset will be quick as cold air and strong winds efficiently pull heat from all living things that are outside. Sheltering and minimal exposure will be incredibly important Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Due to these extremely cold wind chills, an Extreme Cold Warning is in effect to warn all living things about the dangerously cold temperatures and to be sure to find adequate shelter.