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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Seems like modeling is settling on a bowling ball(Holston called that a few days ago) which enters the US around San Fran and just bulls its way across the country due east. How far it drifts SE once past the MS River makes a HUGE difference. The GFS transfers its energy to the SE coastline where it forms a stronger storm. The CMC keeps the majority of the energy north w/ some energy transfer to the coast, but to late to help anyone outside of inland PA and NY. When you look at the vorticity maps, there is very little difference between the two. So, right now we are riding the line between "rain changing to snow showers" or a high end mountain event w/ potential for lower elevation snows in E TN w/ just the slightest changes. What changes you say? Well, we need the storm to reform slightly more inland. If so, it would be a boomer. I am fairly conservative at this range. We are going to see a lot of changes over the next 4-5 days.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That banana high, if real, is going to trap that storm and it may just crawl or even stall out. Once east of us. The mountains, especially, may be looking at a high end event if it does that. Still, a long ways to go.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Both the CMC and GFS at 12z have the storm which is 8 days away, and understandably we are going to see lots of different variations at this range. That said, the 12z GFS, which doesn't have a big clown map for us, stalls the slp over eastern NC and VA for days - days!
  4. Carvers Gap
    And it wouldn't be a weather forum if we didn't talk about the unofficial/official SSW occurring in modeling. The GFS splits the strat at 10, 30, and 50mb. I don't know about the wind reversal piece. I am wondering if we actually need to redefine an SSW. When we see a fairly concentric lobe of x heights split into two lobes...that is a split in my book. And to paraphrase a great scientist....Amy Butler noted(did NOT say there was a split coming) that it is rare to have a split during this phase of the QBO and maybe Nina(?). However, those rare splits resulted in some pretty significant cold at mid-latitudes. That strat warming is likely playing extreme havoc w/ LR products right now IMHO. Lots of flip flopping in modeling. So, to me, that means we are looking at 50/50 as to whether this comes to NA. Then is is 60/40 as to whether it drops into the West and nation's mid-section. I am wary when I see cold at LR and see strat split occurring...I have been burned more than once with that set-up.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The one thing modeling has been pretty consistent w/ is a banana high over the top of the SLP. That essentially traps that storm along the coast. I am tempted to say that a storm now looks likely, but only tempted. We all know what can happen w/ storms at this range. Also, we are entering the timeframe where storms are lost(d5-7). If this thing is still there Sunday, it might be worth seeing if the potential is there to reel it in. Another characteristic which I have seen across modeling is the storm going negative tilt, turning due north, and then turning northwest for a brief time.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at ensembles, the 0z EPS has this for the E TN and W NC mountains and also portion of SW VA and TRI. Their ensembles probably support it better than the GEPS. LONG way to go, but those were good trends for mountain communities.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has the same storm as the CMC, but is eastward. That does not surprise me as it is the more progressive model. I would guess the Euro might be having some issues w/ holding energy back...but who knows, that might have been exactly why its run was so big yesterday or so meh overnight. I need to look at the ensembles more.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I can remember a couple. That huge NC/SC storm that never materialized was one. It was producing 4-5' right up to the event. They got nada! Snowmegadon had some big totals. @tnweathernutsent me a photo while I was driving in the mountains. I had to pull over in order to get enough service to get the photo...glad I was pulled over!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Thing is, this has been there on several model runs for a while(maybe not that much). If anyone gets their hopes of for 52!!!! Well, they haven't been doing this long enough. LOL. DGEX worthy right there. Looks rates driven vs cold driven in terms of accumulations.
  10. Carvers Gap
    You know the 6z GFS has that CMC solution now, just warmer. Euro was...meh! LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
  12. Carvers Gap
    NE TN, SW VA, and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 0z CMC. overnight.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, amen to that.....and with the strat getting jostled....things can change. The good thing is that seasonal patterns and the MJO do provide good underpinnings.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Sorry for the flurry of LR posts. Last post of the evening and a cherry picked one at that. GEFS Ext Control 35day snow maps(multiple storms with that...it isn't just one)...
  15. Carvers Gap
    Sorry to bury your comment w/ 1,000 posts of mine. Just bumping it so folks can see it.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The CMC Weeklies ran tonight as well. They are substantially colder. Here is the last week of the month....The CMC Weeklies begin get cold right around the 20th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Right now, I am just waiting for the 35d snow map for the GEFS EXT control......it should be fun.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I may have! Ha! It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow. About this time of night, it all runs together for me! These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps. If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps. Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean. That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER.
  19. Carvers Gap
    GEFS Ext has above normal precip over the TN Valley during the colder weeks, and it looks like a textbook setup w/ the most precip over middle TN...but pretty much the entire forum area is AN for precip though. Euro Weeklies look to have normal precip during its coldest "mean" timeframes..... FWIW, the Weeklies control is also very similar but slightly less extreme east of the MS. Its mean ensemble is about week later w/ a much more watered down look understandably since it is a blend.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Let me dig back through the Euro Weeklies and GEFS Ext to see what the precip anomalies are....
  21. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove I thought the same. It would fit the repeating pattern that you, Boone, and Holston have been kicking around. The GEFS EXT ensemble is much less cold...but still cold for an ensemble at this range. I know you know this...but I like looking at the control just to see what a non-washed-out member would look like. I was like, "Wow." The run is still ongoing. It is colder than the map above. Right now, I think trying to get the timing of any outbreak is going to be tough. The window(range of dates) for the outbreak is roughly Jan25-Feb10. It could still go poof or it could get crazier. I have always felt like that range of dates has held some of our best winter weather during my lifetime. We will find out soon if the cold snap in December was winter's opening act or just its only act!
  22. Carvers Gap
    Still conflicting signals out there about where this heads, but modeling seems (today) to be adding the potential for a pretty serious cold outbreak in weeks 3-4, especially weak 4. That timeframe is fraught w/ forecasting danger! So take all of this with huge grains of salt(boulders if necessary). There is a lot on the table right now in terms of medium range tracking and LR modeling. Models are juggling quite a bit.
  23. Carvers Gap
    GEFS Ext (control)...check this out. Way out there so huge grains of salt, especially since it is a control run. We have been talking about the MJO disconnect on modeling. Something is gonna have to give. Well, I hope this is the "give." That has both an Alaskan and NAO block. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but that would make the cold in December feel like a walk at the beach.
  24. Carvers Gap
    GEF Ext control got into it as well......I think it is a hair to quick. This is similar to some of the looks showing up in the weeks 3-4. There are still some work looks as well. But the "holiday shine" look is more fun to look at!!! LOL
  25. Carvers Gap
    Considering the bleak look from several days ago...we have traded in our Yugo for an F150. Basically we are leaving a pattern that just kind of took us around town, and at times didn't run at all...for a pattern which is steady and something you can work with. Key takeaways from Euro Weeklies: 1. Developing NAO late in Feb as the run ends. Why lead off w/ something way out there? It fits NAO climatology where NAOs return. It implies spring will be delayed. 2. The HB block is now on the clock. Within a couple of weeks, we are transitioning quickly to something else. What is that something else? See below.... 3. Pattern after that will feature a very November-ish pattern where cold settles into the Mountain West and spread eastward in waves. It is not without some warmth, but hey...we live in the South. We are gonna have some warm days during winter. 4. The SER is going to be present, but gets beat down at times. With as much cold on the map in early Feb...we might need a bump from that feature. 5. Beginning the 20th through almost the end of February - base seasonably cold pattern w/ variability. 6. Base warm pattern until the 20th w/ storms cutting under the block. 7. Source region for cold is less maritime and more Canadian or Arctic in nature as the run progresses. 8. This run fits nicely w/ the CFSv2 run from today and yesterday. 9. Nice look late in the third week in January into the fourth week w/ EPO ridge and increasing cold. First and second weeks of February are the core of the cold shot....but it never really leaves, just moderates to normal. Is it right? We will find out....
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