Carvers Gap

1. The overal northern stream dominance reminds me a lot of 14-15. 2. 12z EPS looks much better than this morning.

12z Euro w/ same wave-along-a-front set up.

The 12z GFS...Pretty good look around the 26th. Cosgrove was money with that comment on social media.

Cosgrove noted on FB just a few mins ago that he thinks the morning operational runs might have been in error w/ re: to the absence of snow and a storm.

Remind me of late Nov/early Dec 1975.....

That is the textbook look we need. Ensemble is continuing the meh look from the past several runs which sends a ridge into the middle of the country and builds eastward. This could be a time where the operational may lead the way. It seems like the GFS operational does handle early season cold better.

Just to tag onto my post above. Blocking over Greenland is not far enough southwest to fight the upcoming PAC pattern which is nearly opposite of optimal for cold in the East. It is not a classic Greenland block on the GEFS. Need it centered closer to the Davis Straits. Otherwise, Michigan benefits and cold doesn’t press.

No idea if correct, but the blocking up top looks short lived. Could easily be models decaying that pattern too quickly, and we have seen that many times before. OTH, the MJO is not gonna play nice, and we could be seeing a ridge back in the East to start December (duration TBD).

That is a score!

12z GFS has that now almost exactly. If real, that is a pretty significant upslope snow event.

That is my thinking. The Nina pattern around the dateline(cool SSTs) does not favor convection. Now, if the Nino manages to be slightly ahead of schedule or there is some warm upwelling, that could help us during the second half of winter. Either way, I think we see some help on the Atlantic side and maybe a very jostled strat most of the winter. I would not be surprised to see some sort of Alaska origin, cold air train. Basically a high in the Aleutians(not good), but AN heights over Greenland and HB. That would send the cold air down the Rockies. It would modify as it slides eastward under the Greenland/HB block but might be cold enough. Storm track would be a sneaky bonus.

Gonna be fighting a crappy Pacific most of the winter. SSTs favor a 4-6 MJO setup from what I have read. We will have to have a -NAO to counter it. Not optimal, but that is the way I believe. Looks promising at least for the first third of winter.

Man it is like someone just flip the lights off for summer. Record highs last Monday. Snow in the mountains over the weekend.

Even on the LR CFS2, the EPO and NAO never really form a couplet but they do this -> -EPO -> -NAO -> EPO over the next 6 weeks.

I saw where Cosgrove in his Sat wx update mentioned there are some similarities to NovDec 83, 93, 95, and 13. Sorry, I should have referenced your NAO discussion above when I posted earlier. Good find.

In the LR, it seems like as we lose the EPO, the NAO starts to build. Been a while since I have seen that type of good fortune.

The 12z GFS is just flat out cold. I didn’t think the Euro Weeklies yesterday looked warm either. (A bit rusty as I put my pattern discussion in the observation thread earlier...still, brrrr)

Pretty bad loss to a team that had a rough outing against Grambllng.

We were in Indianapolis foe the past four days for Marching Band Nationals. Cross country running season preceded that! Now, it is time for a break. When we arrived the temp was 75! Prelims were at Lucas Field and the temps outside for our walk down were hot! Two days later moderate snow was falling. We ended up with 2-3” of the white stuff. Nearly the same thing occurred last year.

Looks to me like only the tropospheric is displaced. Pretty solid consolidation up top.

The 12z GFS does not have a long term, strat split. BUT, the strat is on fire even as it reconsolidates. There is an equatorial displacement of cold air d10-15 on the GFS. Is it right? I don't know. Looks like two stout, cold air masses are depicted on it. At this point, that looks like our first winter-storm window. Yeah, I know it is November. That said, that pattern is ripe for a storm -> cold, GOM open for business. Likely will be more of a cutter, but if one of those 1040+ highs presses south it will displace the storm track southward in response.

Is there a 3-D animation of it?

We are gonna be fighting the MJO all winter the the IO and dateline SST setup. Probably going to be in the warm phases all winter as a generality.

@Math/Met, that was quite the mountain wave event last night!

So, shoulder season modeling coupled with the randomness of SPV potential....wx modeling is likely going to struggle mightily.