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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    At the furthest extent of its reach, the 12z EPS looks pretty good at 500. Temps are still AN, but should switch quite quickly as Canada would refill with cold quite quickly. PNA/EPO ridge(which has yet to verify this winter), AN heights over the Davis Straits, and a mean trough over the East. This reminds me of two years ago when winter was meh...and Memphis got hammered in about this same timeframe. With strat warming underway, it should be noted that these patterns can switch on a dime...so proceed w/ caution. Let's reel it in.... addendum: I should be noted the transition to this look begins around Jan 15th w/ the pseudo winter storm.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like Jan 22-23rd is a fairly common way point on modeling. When it is on Weeklies products, I kind of have to guess at the pattern change as it sits in a 5d mean window. So, it is nice to see it showing up on ensembles. So far, it is holding in time. Interestingly, the -NAO is trying to show back up in modeling.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The potential pattern change is still moving forward in time. As with the last cold shot, there was a ton of can kicking....but the pattern is now on global ensembles instead of just being limited to runs of the Weeklies. That is a very cold look.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Several of my seasonal forecast ideas are going to work this year - LOL, but February not so much it looks like. Seasonal ideas are a bit of a crapshoot(requires a certain amount of luck), but I went w/ the past two years of Nina climatology to repeat. The good thing if this winter repeats, we should see at least one more cold shot into the forum areas(I am think a couple of periods of cold). I had February as much above normal......that is on extremely shaky ground. In fact, I might get the exact opposite. Oddly, November and December started the exact same way - warm start w/ cold eroding those warm starts as the month progressed.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The greenest yard in my neighborhood(likely over seeded w/ rye) is brown. It is not uncommon for me to have to get an early mow by late Feb here, though. Most of that is day length driven - just gets more sun. I have a small hoop house which I put up in mid-February in order to grow cool season crops in my garden. Just looking at LR temps, modeling looks like it has for days. Looks like the return to winter could possibly begin around the 20th. Unfortunately,(very unfortunately) spring does not look warm at this point. Might be a very slow climb if Nino takes hold early. I actually like quick flips to spring. Last year, my growing season was pretty short due to temps not warming-up quickly here. I was looking at some garden photos on my phone....the last couple of years my garden has been put in the ground 2-3 weeks later than normal.
  6. Carvers Gap
    At 186, the Euro has a stalled 997 low on the south end of Hatteras. Heading to bed. Might be classified as a slight synoptic improvement as the storm is closer to the coast(the secondary).
  7. Carvers Gap
    This run is just more disorganized which almost tells me the Euro is stuck in purgatory - not knowing to drive a cutter or drive SE to the coast.
  8. Carvers Gap
    At 144, more energy has been kept south of the primary - middle of Arkansas instead of St Louis.
  9. Carvers Gap
    At 117, this looks more like a bowling ball. It may still cut, but that looks more like it might not.
  10. Carvers Gap
    As @John1122 noted, I also have a 30% chance of snow in the morning. Yeah, I am watching the Euro roll - just a glutton for punishment. At 108, slp is in a similar location over the Four Corners. And yes, when lows go into the Four Corners, the Euro can have problems. So far, it looks more realistic than 12z in terms of the shape of the storm.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC goes cutter...but...it transfers waaaay south. Then, a slp crawls(and I mean crawls) up the SE coast. It eventually comes ashore and jogs nw inland. That would be a significant upslope event for the mountains, and snow would be flying in the valleys. Stall a storm out just northwest of Hatteras, and you have my full attention.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And the GFS w/ yet another solution as John notes. Realistic set-up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    30 day temp map by the 18z CFSv2.....
  14. Carvers Gap
    Do you still read that site about Bering Sea teleconnections? Have they mentioned any downstream cold later this month or next month?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Mine were fried! It has been my experience that hollies are nearly impossible to eradicate. I would think that the entire trunk and strongest branches will send out new shoots. Now, Japanese maples and crepe myrtles....they can die in that type of cold. I once saw a holly bush removed three feet deep by a backhoe. Two years later, the holly bush grew back through a crack in the pavement. Last year, I cut mine back to the ground during spring. They were four feet tall by the end of summer! But there will surely be less hardy varieties of plants that will be knocked out. I think if yours has made it 16 years, you are good. The ground here looks like it has been scalded by hot water.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think we likely get a good three weeks somewhere between Jan25 and Feb 20th or so. That is primetime so I am not complaining IF that is the window. Honestly, ensembles are a bit quicker w/ the transition than the CFSv2.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Definitely can see the pattern change in the LR now. The HB block pattern, which will have lasted almost 5 weeks by that time, finally is displaced enough that the trough is slipping from the West towards the East. Theres is plenty of mischief in the meantime as pieces of energy slip under the HB block. Most cut, but if one doesn't.....IYKYK.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yep, that is nothing more than a cutter. That run was really wonky from the word go when it reached the US coast. At this range, I can't blame it. But energy that lacks the look of a vortex....suspect right off the bat. Anyway, this will cut and then form a secondary low well of the coast which will not impact meaningful weather here unless it pulls way back!
  19. Carvers Gap
    At 168 it begins the SE jog which we have seen on other modeling.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yep, this one is going to cut to guess where....Indianapolis. LOL. Let's see if there is energy transfer.
  21. Carvers Gap
    @ 150 this is definitely north of the previous 0z run. That may not be a bad thing if it actually takes a SE jog. The 0z run never dug until it got off the coast.
  22. Carvers Gap
    @ 126 the 500vort map is not so much a vortex as it looks like the letter "v." No other run, including the 0z has that look. So, we are off to a wonky start.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Just eyeballing this as it comes ashore near the Bay Area, it looks slightly north and the flow slightly further east. That makes me think this doesn't dig as far south as the 0z run did. That also falls in line w/ the GFS/CMC looks. We'll see. It is about like reading somebody's palm at this point in the run.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is rolling.....While we wait here is a LR look at the GEPS. Normally, I wouldn't worry about the last slide of an ensemble run. However, since Weeklies(of every sort) are looking colder...I will be interested to see if the global models will follow suit. That low in the Bering Sea... @jaxjagmanthat teleconnects to western ridging right?
  25. Carvers Gap
    The Christmas storm trended from Savannah to Indianapolis, and that was after we had a thread on it(no offense meant to wurbus, just saying that is how quickly that changed). At this range, I wouldn't rule anything out. Energy transfer scenarios are complicated enough inside of 72 hours. With 8 days to go, all options are on the table. For now, the likelihood of a storm has increased, but even that isn't a certainty. The Plateau could certainly be involved as it is as elevation. For now if pressed, I would say a coastal (maybe strong) is the likely option...The next likely option is just slider that passes north of us, does a Miller B transfer, and is a blizzard for inland PA, NY and the New England states.
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