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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LR 12z GEFS and GEPS both are very cold for this range. Hopefully they can hold on long enough to stay cold. If that trough pulls too far north, a ridge will build under it. The Weeklies had something like that...and the pattern eventually become variable overall. Anyway, that looks like our window.
  2. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting about the storm on the 22nd, it is very similar to the one coming in this weekend. Cutter w/ modeling trying to develop a slp at the southern edge of the attached cold front. Again, this feature will most assuredly change by 18z.....but I am a big fan of slp forming in the GOM if a cold front slows or becomes stationary south of us. Something to watch as we get back to a better period for tracking.
  3. Carvers Gap
    On this morning's ensembles, the changes which will either permanently or temporarily alter the current pattern begin right around 270h or just prior. As we get closer to that timeframe, we should begin to see those changes manifest in operational modeling. The details will change 25x before we get to that time, but the 12z GFS has a good example of what "could" occur as a storm forms along the boundary of incoming cold air. Word of caution for those new to this, there is an old tenet....if you see a low in the Lakes the thermal profiles here won't hold snow easily.
  4. Carvers Gap
    From Robert at WxSouth on FBt: But all model guidance in the longer range has been gradually showing more and more of a big pattern change. It now looks like a complete reversal is coming to the overall Northern Hemisphere, the West will get to dry out and warm up, and the jet stream will be diving in the center and eastern part of the country by late January and lasting into early February. Long range large scale indices look to support the modeling on this pattern flip. So for now, we carry on and trudge through this warm rather boring and benign non-Winterlike pattern in the Southeast and MidAtlantic, with rain and thunderstorms every few days, followed by a brief cold snap and then repeating the process. But changes are in sight.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Nina winters are not good for the mountains(Apps to be specific). I think I actually wrote back in June that the mountains would be much below normal in terms of snowfall. The storm track during Ninas is just lousy for NE TN and mountain communities when the cold checks up at the Plateau as it has for three straight winters. It is good for the Plateau and points west. Even Knoxville can sometimes get some snow during Nina's. The reason for this is that many storms cut through the eastern valley or the spine of the Apps. Now, some Nina winters are really good, and this one isn't over yet. As for the long range, it still looks the same as it did yesterday - pattern change inbound around the 23rd. How long does that hold? TBD. I think a good window is upcoming. As for the weekend, this system was really a one-foot-in-one-foot-out from the word go. That means modeling had it heading to Chicago or an Apps runner(both on many runs), even a couple of runs yesterday had that. To steal a line from a MA poster, when the system looks complicated, the least complicated solution is usually right. In this case, it was a cutter to Chicago and a frontal passage here. And that is the danger of tracking systems from 7 days out...things do change. However, it is pretty amazing that modeling can track things at that range now. I can remember when 4-5 days was the max and 7 days was nearly random.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Hang in there, man! You all are in good hands at Duke for sure.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro control has a huge storm just after 300. Foot plus totals for the eastern valley and lows in the single digits. Models are beginning to see the cold around the 22nd and 23rd.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. From @WxUSAFin the MA forum: GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro!
  9. Carvers Gap
    But here is what is crazy, most modeling(back when we were closely watching the "winter storm that wasn't" for the weekend), modeling had it doing the boomerang back into the coast. So, that clockwise rotation of the WAR must be stout. So, stuff like that interests me regardless of actual storms. However, if we get a storm near the coast, it could get pulled northwest. Lots of speculation in this post....but anyway, the GFS.
  10. Carvers Gap
    It has a crazy big western Atlantic ridge (WAR) which is reversing flow over the Atlantic. There is probably some feedback going on there w/ the WAR. That system probably isn't 100% tropical in nature, but that is very rare(not sure I have ever seen it) to see a slp advance westerly towards the Carolina coast for hundreds of miles.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Somebody go get the keys from the 12z GFS. It needs to catch a cab. It has what looks like a tropical storm barreling towards the North Carolina coast around 200hours. No kidding. It is worth a look. Cause we know that is going to verify.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, I had kind of put that system to bed re: the weekend. The 12z CMC has warning criteria snows for the mountains and advisory criteria for the Plateau. The valleys are out of if for right now. If the Euro goes w/ an inland runner on the tail end of the front(like the CMC), that might spark my interest. As for now, just passing interest as we are about two weeks from the good stuff and this weekend is the only game in town..
  13. Carvers Gap
    Happy Monday! Admittedly, this is a cherry picked map from the GEFS Ext Jan8th. I still do have a wary eye that the cold could dump into the West and hold there before modifying and heading eastward. Why? That is what SSW events(whether official or not) tend to produce. That said, if modeling is correct(and it is moving forward w/ each run)...a secondary storm track would develop along the coast(maybe the primary track for a brief window). You can actually see those storm tracks on this control run. The big storm which produced the E TN snows was early Feb. The real score would be a displaced TPV which heads eastward due to the MJO signal, and hits an active STJ.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Kind of fun to watch modeling begin to sniff out this pattern. The 18z GEFS (and its much talked about warm temps and where is the cold in the LR everyone has been talking about?), well take a look at the temp anomalies for NA after 348. The warmth vanishes - just gone. That is a long way out there and still may not yet verify, but the model now reflects what the CMC is putting out. That look is a setup for a major cold outbreak from the Rockies to the Apps.
  15. Carvers Gap
    LC had a great write-up yesterday evening - very detailed w/ supporting ideas. A little Cosgrove from last night: The warm air may be around in the Eastern Seaboard communities until the start of the last week of January. If I am reading the "tea leaves" (numerical models) correctly, a Colorado/Trinidad type storm will establish an Arctic air mass across all but the West Coast states. Aside from temporary alterations, we would then be facing a cold-dominated period that will last until the end of February. After that sequence, a warmer March will be for real in all but southern Canada and parts of the Intermountain Region.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, my much above normal temp forecast(for Feb) from June...in major jeopardy right now. Exact opposite is on the table.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The end of the 12z EPS run.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Fountain nails it. BIG changes to the storm next weekend. Temps are still no bueno, but that track was not Midwest cutter on the CMC. IF we can get that storm below us, who knows. We are exiting the timeframe where storms are lost on modeling.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It is not warm right now in NE TN. It definitely felt like January this evening.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has now joined the EPS and GEPS in the LR pattern change - and it is a pretty massive change at 500mb as other models have shown above. It was the last model to budge. Next item to address will be source regions for cold. The pattern would support discharge of cold air from high latitudes. It would be nice to get Siberian grade cold as an upgrade option - one click shopping from Amazon(we want the entire bundle subscription of widespread snow, cold, and a 2 year warrantee).
  21. Carvers Gap
    And it pops a weak inland runner in the Piedmont. That will work. Is it right? No idea.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good example of a lee side low...
  23. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS
  24. Carvers Gap
    NE TN and W NC folks might want to take a look at the 18z GFS. That is a 98 redux right there.
  25. Carvers Gap
    If that verifies, I think we see multiple things to track. So, I am just going to enjoy the next couple of weeks, watch for maybe an oddball storm in the meantime(maybe some high elevation snow next weekend...light). What will be interesting to see is if the storm next weekend just ushers in the new pattern, and we don't look back. The GFS has hinted at this on more than one occasion. The Euro control ends w/ a massive western ridge w/ the Arctic being unleashed into Canada. This would be a triumph of LR modeling as it has had this for a bit. If the SSW comes to fruition, it could wreck all of that or it could dump into the East due to the MJO.
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