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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS supports the operational. Looks like it is going to be cold. Main concern is that we are currently experiencing drought conditions. That means timing of systems(re: snow storms) will be exceptionally important.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is still advertising a significant period of cold. The block is impressive. We will see how source regions set-up in terms of the severity of cold.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I was looking back at some of MRX's climatology. I have my doubts if it doubles down colder after December, but 10-11 was definitely front loaded Dec/Jan. It is a great fit for the currently ascending QBO.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I was reading the MA forum earlier. They were talking about '10-11 as a possible analog. I looked at 83-83, 89-90, 95-96, 20-21...no match. JB and/or others have mentioned those. But take a look at this.
  5. Carvers Gap
    -NAO anyone?
  6. Carvers Gap
    As noted in the Fall thread, take with a grain of salt as this is in the 10-15 day range. EPS is a hair slower. Overall, Atlantic blocking likes to hang around once established. Winters of late have tended to buck some of the analog packages.
  7. Carvers Gap
    High latitude blocking galore. Please see comments in the Fall thread.
  8. Carvers Gap
    December thread has been started. If December wx is slow, I will just convert it to Part I of probably multiple, winter threads.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We will soon find out if the high latitude blocking signatures pay dividends for our area. May need a boat and may also need snow shovels. We'll try separating this into threads by month. If that doesn't work, I will simply switch this to Part I of winter. Have fun and good luck!
  10. Carvers Gap
    As you can see above, the source regions are frigid. One cutter, and much of that cold comes eastward. The NAO is strongly negative. I noticed that Bob Chill in the MA forum notes that often when the NAO is that negative, it tends to hang around and the overall pattern is very tough to break down. Food for thought. NOTHING IS A CERTAINTY. This is spitballing, and should be noted this is in the 10-15 day range. We all know the rules. Probably time for a December thread. Edit...I will get the thread started.
  11. Carvers Gap
    This is what corresponds to those above...Euro is about 36 hours slower.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Temps are cold from the Apps west, northwestward. That is a strong high latitude blocking signature. If true, I expect severe cold to ensue. Pretty easy to see where the storm track battle line is drawn. As noted above, flooding is a possibility as well as an extended overrunning event in the areas where cold and GOM moisture intersect.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Woof at the 18z GEFS. Looks more like the Canadian and EPS now. That is a COLD look.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has a MONSTER -NAO. It is so strong that it nearly overcomes a PAC that is the exact opposite of what we need it. BN temps still relatively on target for mid-December...could begin during week 2 of December. Huge grain of salt right now as this is a wonky set-up...could be much colder or much warmer.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Patterns is very blah after what looked like something promising. I still think mid-December looks like a good window for the beginning of cold. Nailing down that timeframe has not been easy. Certainly looks like the trough will pull into the West in January, if not before. But really, I have no crystal ball on that. The Pacific is so hostile, I am not sure the trough can hold in the east at all for more than a few days. That said, January climatology normally does the trick.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The ensembles are spitting out a pretty nice pattern from mid-December onward. Cosgrove has been doing pretty well this late fall...he has a nice write-up about it on social media. How long does the cold last? TBD. As John noted, there are some similarities to '89, but there are also some similarities to some winters which saw cold come back after a brief January thaw. The bridge over the top of HL blocking is a pretty good signal for winter here.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS does not support the operational after d10. I think the idea of the next cold shot coming around mid-December looks about right.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS today has the bridging of the HL PAC and Atlantic blocks now at hour 288, roughly beginning Dec3-4. Guessing part of the TPV gets trapped and sent southward. Impressive look. 12z GFS w/ a hold my beer run compared to yesterday's incredible look at 12z.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Looking at the 0z CFSv2extended/seasonal, 6zGEFS, and Weeklies(careful as today's runs don't look overly similar...), I am beginning to feel more comfortable that a window of cold/wintry weather will make its appearance around mid-December. And that might be our shot. That window has been tough to nail down. Duration is incredibly tricky as well. This is just spitballing. The cold could show up anywhere between Dec 7-15th, and maybe last 10-20 days(if pressed I would say Dec 10th...earlier if the 6z GEFS is correct, but it is prob rushed). Christmas is too far out to say anything with certainty. Some LR model runs show cold...some not. The third week in December seems almost universally cold on modeling though.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Pretty nice run of the Weeklies and looks to really repeat what we have seen during November. Cold shots followed by ridging....wash, rinse, repeat. NAO gives way to an EPO ridge later in the run - displaced slightly westward but still will work. I have seen MUCH WORSE runs than that. We are almost out of shoulder season, so the "trust factor" of the Weeklies edges upward with each run now.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It is 384 for kicks and giggles. That traps the PV. Blockimus Maximus.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I mean really for MBY, we are five to six weeks away from prime climatology, so even tracking at this time of year(my elevation) is a bonus! The early snows of the past decade were not something I even saw as a kid at lower elevations. Now the Apps and Plateau, snow is not uncommon beginning now.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the NAO, some runs it appears it is headed for an alignment which would benefit us. On others it is east based which would favor cold for Nova Scotia and the extreme NE. With the Pacific being hostile (PNA/EPO included), the NAO from what I have seen is only blunting what would otherwise be a record setting torch. As is, the NAO will keep us seasonal. Even marginal help out west would create very cold conditions here. OTH, if the NAO backs off....torch city. I tend to lean towards a period of moderation during the early half of December, an idea shared by many. I then think that we see the end of December turn cold before flipping to a potentially winter-ending pattern in January. Not saying that is a certainty BTW, but that is on the table. The other option is winter just ratchets down and never warms back up truly. There is the potential for a modified 95-96 pattern. In NE TN and the mountains, we are long overdue for that. 14-15 is on the table as well.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we are going to see a cutter(unless something abruptly changes) on Friday. We could still see some snow showers and flurries along the Plateau and mountains. I would think the valleys have a shot if the Euro is accurate. The reason for the cutter? Well, climatology supports that track as Nina is in place. It also looks like the energy for this storm(to my eyes anyway), is coming out in several pieces with the main energy cutting int middle and west TN.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is a doozy of a solution. That is rain changing to snow in the northwest quadrant. Mountains would get hammered.
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