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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases. It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct. Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning. Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That would fit the flight path and timing almost perfectly IMHO. Great find! I am super impressed. People who follow the weather as a hobby...can find stuff at 60,000'!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Wow, I think you did get a photo. Hunter Ward (Asheville Wx) has a potential photo of it over Hendersonville(NC) around 9:00AM. If you snapped that earlier, good chance that is exactly what that is, and it would match the trajectory!
  4. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS, 0z Euro, and 0z CMC have some sort of winter wx event (light) for next weekend.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Well, we have something else to track.... @Daniel Boone, you know if they ever decide to do something about this, it is coming down in somebody's front yard in this forum. ORNL, BAE, and NFS in that flight path. https://fox59.com/news/national-world/possible-chinese-balloon-tracker-where-is-it-headed-next/
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS agains looks decent at 180. That is the only analysis I am giving at this range. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).
  8. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, when I envisioned this winter...that 12z GFS run is how I envisioned it(maybe a bit more compressed in terms of frequency). Lots of warmth, but intrusions of cold w/ some chances if timing works.
  9. Carvers Gap
    WARNING: GFS at range. The 12z run wasn't terrible.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a similar set-up but phases less....but not a terrible look either.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It is only 198 hours out there, and it is on the GFS....but that is the general idea. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It has been a while since the end of Feb and beginning of March were decent. Kind of an MJO nugget this AM, many models are trying to race through warm phases at low amplitude and cut quickly to 7/8. Even the 6z GEFS is not overly warm after d10(big warmup prior to that). Maybe this is the year where we see 1-2 more windows in the valleys after Feb 20? For your troubles....
  13. Carvers Gap
    This was a textbook over-running event in west TN. When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all. Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area. Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM. The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was. Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary. The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.
  14. Carvers Gap
    That sound about right. I am watching the timeframe of Feb11-14 as a cold front(timing TBD) is rolling under that big ridge. It would be thread the needle, but is the only game in town after the ice storm.
  15. Carvers Gap
    So, January(after crazy warmth) would close with an ice storm in middle and west TN. West TN, Arkansas, northern MS....those regions appear to have had it the worst. The ice storm would roll into February as it has one foot in one month and one in another. There is a thread dedicated to this event.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that snow storm in the LR is hurting my warm-up.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It is going to likely get warm - almost a certainty. The trick is can we score a snowfall during a warm-up. February is the kind of month where that can happen. Absolutely no promises on my part...this is a stretch, but still interesting.
  18. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba.
  19. Carvers Gap
    JB mentioned it yesterday. He said it reminded him of 2018. Man, nothing like a good strat split to end the month and extend winter into April. LOL. I am going to put up my hoop house this week just so I can hear the strat crackle.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS shows the trough amplification. The EPS shows a weakness. In the force that slips beneath our latitude on the 11th.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I mean it is going to very likely get warm. But a cold front is pretty much our best shot during a warm pattern. I suspect it will be marginal at best, but you never know.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I am mildly interested in the timeframe around Feb 11th. That is a possible seasonal cold front. Most runs have been not had much cyclogenesis along the front...but never know.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It is early in west TN! I did see a post on FB that Rutherford Co bridges and overpasses are very slick and should be avoided. Interstate interchange there is a sheet of ice.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Gopher wood supply chain issues. Better stock up now! And that is great to hear! Hey, if Alabama wants to pay the bills, I think that is great! My former grocery bagger was telling me that his wife used to have a little heater they took to practices and games for early season baseball. They set their blanket on fire! LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Textbook La Nina 90d temp anomaly signature. The Mountain West temps are well below normal.
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