Carvers Gap
-
Posts
15,695 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
Meanwhile, this look waaaaay out there is prime. -
We need that system to crank. Has time of day changed? That would cause thermal profile issues.
-
Remind me why the inverted trough is good. I know it helps, but I always forget about how that actually works.
-
This is the 6z off run of the Euro operational. These snow maps are incomplete as the storm is not finished. I have the last slide of both accumulations and slp/preciptype maps. The control definitely has issues w/ the thermal profile in the valley. I would think the west side of the eastern valley is in a slightly better spot with this set-up as downsloping is less here.
-
Yeah, it did for sure. Now let's hope the Euro doesn't go west!
-
If modeling locks down that track by the time the Euro runs, somebody start a thread. If it busts, it busts. Nobody will fault you. For now, it is the NAM and snow starts about 60 hours in the southern valley....so just beware of the NAM.
-
12z NAM left the GFS camp. I suspect the GFS will now leave quite soon. If one uses the non-Kuchera extrapolated rates, this is the total. By rule in the forum, the map with the most snow must always be used. j/k...but sort of not.
-
My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew.
-
It does. It was late to the game w/ the ice storm, and took a long time to correct to the CMC. It really wasn't close to being accurate until about 24hours to go.
-
Three windows I feel are interesting, because cold fronts are likely involved. 1. Feb 11th 2. Feb 18th 3. Last four days of Feb and/or first few days of March.
-
And if you think cold weather is done for the season, I am just gonna leave this here. That Feb18-21st window is decent. 1040hp parked over Memphis feeding cold into the Gulf Coast.
-
Exactly!
-
Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL.
-
The 18z Euro and 18z GFS don't even look like they are modeling the same storm at the surface.
-
I mean where can one get that type of information other than here, and for free at that. This is such a great forum.
-
Agree. There is a HP which is sitting over the top which might be blocking it, but there is not bitterly cold air mass shunting southward. That said bowling balls are notoriously tough to predict.
-
The 12z Canadian has an upslope event around d10. Way out there, but good to see modeling seeing something w/ that cold shot.
-
The 12z GFS has a mid-south slider around d10 FWIW. That is going to change likely, but worth noting. That is the 18th timeframe that we have had circled as well...no cutter this run. edit: sorry. cutter 17th and then slider right after.
-
Euro was slight jog to the east. CMC was a slight jog west. GFS was an ever so slight jog west. They may be converging on a storm track. We will see. The 12z GEPS has a decent snow mean over TRI...4-5".
