Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Looks like it has slowed on the CMC as well. -
FWIW, the 12z GFS looks like it has a feedback issue w/ stalling this just west of Hatteras.
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The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not.
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Looks super similar to 6z...just slower. That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues. Slower usually results in westward down the line.
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Can u see past 66h?
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LOL. You got me!
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I am gonna roll with the GFS being west of 6z. It is digging every so lightly more at 36. But truly...IDK.
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You all who have been watching this closely for a couple of days...should be able to spot trends early as it is under 84 hours now.
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12z GFS is rolling.
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Oddly, if it is a big storm, I rarely worry about ground temps. Those can be overcome. Heavy rates trump.
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Thinking more about that good question...I say let it rip in terms of strength. We are going to need that to overcome temps. We want cold air crashing into the NW quadrant. I think we only get that if it deepens.
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Also, downsloping along the western foothills is definitely a concern if cold air is not in place and is being manufactured. The 12z NAM shows that downsloping effect quite well. W NC is cold and E TN is in the mid 40s. Need this to hit at night. What is the timing on this? I haven't even looked.
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The NAM at range has a biased of being amped. Word of caution there, and I know you all know that. That is for new folks. That could easily trend SE if it sobers up. But again, this is more of closing off vs just synoptically riding an inbound front. So, the NAM "could" be correct as the closing off point is not at 84, but earlier in the run.
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That is an exceptionally great set-up if legit...at range gives me pause. That is how you get a big winter storm. The likelihood of somebody in the SE getting hammered is growing.
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Man, IDK. Old model biases are out the window this winter. I tend to think we want it just to our southwest given the trend all winter of storms coming back west(some bigly so). That said, Fountain makes a great point about when it closes off being key. By tomorrow at this time, we need to be right in the middle of that cone, and not the westward edge of guidance. Two things have helped me this winter. Don't trust the GFS d10+ w/ cold. Trust it more than the Euro inside of d5. If this event gets more extreme(higher totals), the GFS is probably more likely to get this right(John's rule). The GFS actually caught the southeast trend first, and was an extreme outlier....until it was likely right. So, I lean GFS right now...but I do take notice when the Euro backs west like it did at 6z. It is often adjusts first to that westward trend. Used to one could just say the GFS is too progressive, and it is coming northwest. One could also say the Euro is wound up to much and will jog southeast....Those old rules don't apply as much. For now, I would just blend the ensembles. That gives us I-81/I-75 as the western edge of guidance....for now. Downsloping would eat a bunch of that up on the western slopes of the Apps. Western NC looks prime w/ E TN the big question mark.
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The 6z GEFS and EPS individuals. FTR, the GEPS(Canadian) is mostly nothing, and a few hits to the Carolinas.
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The 6z Euro control(and I checked) picks up almost exactly where the operational stops. For those new to the Euro off-run, it doesn't go out as far. So, you have to look at the control run of the ensemble to see where it would have gone. It is waaaay west from 0z.
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The 6z Euro ensemble ups totals for E TN and the Plateau. The control is big. The GFS, if it is right, is a NC special. The Euro is not there yet, but it had trouble w/ the last storm. It was far, far too far to the northwest. OTH, the GFS was to far to the SE and blew thermal profiles until the last minute.
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The 18z GEFS individual members are clustered around North Carolina...very few for E TN. But if this thing keeps jogging eastward, we may need some room. Wishing 24-36 hours, this thing is likely to lock in though. The EPS at 18z is a nice uptick.
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That is awesome VolMan! Great photos! As for the 18z GFS, is it going to flirt with a Miller A?
