Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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And throw in a switch to Nino....nice, nice LR look. And good support for that across teleconnections, ENSO, etc. -
I completely forgot about the Super Bowl Trip analog! More accurate than "thunder in the mountains!"(which is super accurate IMBY)
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It is possible. FWIW, the Canadian is a good track, but woefully bad time of day. Noon is not when we want to see snowstorms during mid Feb. This track could produce some lollipops. Of all modeling, the CMC in this set-up is probably not the go to. That said, it usually would be the coldest - doh!
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12z CMC is also rolling...
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We take that run and run with it in NE TN. I suspect we see one more shift west, and then maybe a slight jog east. Bullseye is now 2000' on the Plateau and Smokies I think w/ Cumberlands, NE TN(?), SE KY, SW VA, and W NC sitting in a good spot.
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The 12z definitely has thermal issues, but precip arrives overnight Saturday. It definitely has broken towards the Euro now. The question is modeling done trending westward. IDK.
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MRX mentions there is a lot of uncertainty w/ the western extent of precip. Crossville would be my early frontrunner. We will see what 12z brings.
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At 18hours, it is already slower w/ the energy out west.
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The 12z GFS is rolling. I expect it to look like the NAM. I could be wrong, but I bet it budges.
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The 12k NAM, and who knows if it is right at this range, has precip starting about midnight on Saturday night. The best dynamics for snow aren't until mid-day Sunday. Best case scenario is the rain changes to snow Saturday night. That would cool the air column and keep it snow. If we are having to get marginal temps to cool during the middle of the day on Sunday...might be tough sledding.
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That is the problem.
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This is one of these systems that might lollipop somebody. Three years ago the Plateau had a storm which was quite similar almost at the exact time of year. We had a robotics tournament in Cookeville, and the Plateau had been hammered.
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Meanwhile, this look waaaaay out there is prime.
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We need that system to crank. Has time of day changed? That would cause thermal profile issues.
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Remind me why the inverted trough is good. I know it helps, but I always forget about how that actually works.
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This is the 6z off run of the Euro operational. These snow maps are incomplete as the storm is not finished. I have the last slide of both accumulations and slp/preciptype maps. The control definitely has issues w/ the thermal profile in the valley. I would think the west side of the eastern valley is in a slightly better spot with this set-up as downsloping is less here.
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Yeah, it did for sure. Now let's hope the Euro doesn't go west!
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If modeling locks down that track by the time the Euro runs, somebody start a thread. If it busts, it busts. Nobody will fault you. For now, it is the NAM and snow starts about 60 hours in the southern valley....so just beware of the NAM.
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12z NAM left the GFS camp. I suspect the GFS will now leave quite soon. If one uses the non-Kuchera extrapolated rates, this is the total. By rule in the forum, the map with the most snow must always be used. j/k...but sort of not.
