Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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If there is any term I truly hate in professional development, it is "deep dive." When I hear that term, it makes me want to dive under the table. So, why am I using this term today....I am sort of making fun of the term. Anyway, if you have a better term for dialoguing (another term I truly an uncomfortable with) about various aspects of global weather such as the PDO, AMO, IO, AO, NAO, SOI, MJO, PNA, EPO, QBO etc....I am open to suggestions. Anyway, I thought maybe we could fire up a thread to learn. I thought of this thread idea, because one aspect of my seasonal forecast that I forgot to include was the PDO. And the PDO may well have been partly driving the bus this winter(and the past several in North America). Anyway, here is an article(second link) I am working through. So, what do you all know about the PDO, and maybe how has it been impacting NA weather? I "think" the cold phase PDO is connected to Nina ENSO states as cold water is along the Pacific NA coastline and water water is in the north central Pacific. The warm PDO is the exact opposite. I am not ignorant not he subject(I do lack overall expertise on this), but I truly need to learn more about it, as I think the warmer anomaly of water over the north central Pacific is pulling the trough into the west. And the physics of that is what I am trying to understand! How is the warm water in the north central Pac pulling that trough into the West(or is it)? https://legacy.climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo (primer) https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml (working through this article currently)
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Nashville's low Saturday AM is 23...let's hope there isn't a ton blooming. -
Other than some daffodils, nothing blooming here that I can see. I hope things don't start getting going too quickly. The 12z EPS was not warm after d10. It must feel like it was outdone by the Happy Hour GFS yesterday. It wasn't "hold my beer" cold, but it was chilly. This MJO trying to hang out it 8 makes me super cautious. It won't surprise me to see modeling flip colder at some point if that MJO is legit. What may happen is it rotates into 8...back to 7...back to 8. That seems more reasonable. The low here Saturday is supposed to be 21. That will nip most blooming things here pretty badly.
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Spring is clearly on modeling today in the LR, but Saturday night will be bitterly cold before we begin to make the climb. I still think we see a very sharp cold shot later in the month or early March. The 12z Euro was trying to cook some mischief up today. For now, I think the climb to spring begins in earnest after this weekend. One thing to be wary about, maybe about half to 2/3 of modeling stalls the MJO in phase 8. If that happens - cold. Also, I am seeing some hints the NAO is going to fire. Also another thing to be wary about, during 2018 when the SSW occurred...modeling flipped on a dime (literally went from warm to very cold in one run...and then stuck the landing from 16 days out). Spring being on the way is not exactly a difficult call on my part as days are getting longer and this week is going to be WARM right before we cool back down.
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The 18z GFS rarely disappoints, and tonight was no exception as it tried to build a glacier in the LR. Alas, it is the LR and it is the GFS at range. But fun run.
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The Euro Weeklies are still cold, but the mean is not crazy cold like last Thursday's run was. Most of the run is BN, but seasonably so. The front two weeks are warmer, and the last 30 days are BN. That looks about right to me given the SSW and MJO phase 8 progression. So, maybe some signs of spring if one rolls with the trend....but still a pretty cold start to spring if true. The control run is quite cold, and also snowy for western parts of the state. I still think I see more snow IMBY.
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We had a freezing fog advisory SWS this morning. Fortunately, I didn't observe frozen fog. I hate that stuff. If there is one wintery event which is basically unobservable until you hit it....that is the one.
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Agree. If one really wants to see how good the board is...I urge all to go look at the winter spec thread for this winter(from last summer) and go find a better seasonal forecast. It should be noted that most of us here are amateurs and do this as a hobby. Red taggers almost always have better insight. And it is free regional discussion about our own microclimates. We even have people w/ weather their own data bases which go back decades(reference John). We are very fortunate to have this place to talk weather. Truly, discussion ranges from mountain wave events to winter storms to severe weather to flooding to droughts. One of these days this place won't be here. Enjoy it while it lasts. Each event thread is a gold mine of climatology, observations, and discussion. I think we have done a pretty good job of identifying windows this winter for cold and possible wintery precip. Not every thread works out(if they did we either need to go into business and/or go to Vegas), but having those threads will help several years from now. We have definitely dealt with some head fakes in modeling since December. Notably events will be the mountain upslope snows, the bitter cold of December, and the ice storm for west TN. As "meh" as this winter has been, I did have snow on the ground and in the air on Christmas Day. That is a score in my book. The winter was definitely front loaded w/ a transition from Nina to Nino late. The QBO is rising and that is a teleconnection which is tough to fight. It might be one of the best teleconnections for great winters in this area, and it might be a great teleconnection for bad winters. And again, it is noted that one teleconnection by itself is rarely accurate. For those new to the board, welcome to predicting chaos. I studied a bit of this in college. About half of it is over my head(ok, more than half....ok, a lot more than half) Britannica defines chaos theory as: chaos theory, in mechanics and mathematics, the study of apparently random or unpredictable behaviour in systems governed by deterministic laws. A more accurate term, deterministic chaos, suggests a paradox because it connects two notions that are familiar and commonly regarded as incompatible.
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Cosgrove says analogs are warm for spring. The Weeklies are super chilly. Could go either way. I think of March, April, May.....I would order the months in terms of cold(against the norms and coldest listed first): April, May, March.
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The LR global ensembles still have two windows: 1. Feb 18(looks less optimal due to precip not being timed well) 2. Last few days of Feb and first few days of March Go take a look at the last 2-3 days of the ensemble runs at 12z. The polar vortex sets up shop over the Hudson Bay region. We have seen these looks in the LR not verify once inside of 8-9 days, so beware. However, that look would extend winter and delay spring. I certainly have more thoughts about that look, but I want to see it be consistent before wasting my breath and typing energy. LOL.
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After watching TN lose on a half court 3point shot...after being up by 2(and shooting 2FTs) w/ four seconds left, man............................................................................................
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Larry Cosgrove. Old school met. You can friend him on FB. Though, I think you can find the same write-up on Linked-In. He has a great Saturday night write-up on GoogleDocs that he does, and it is free. He is level headed...not a lot of hype stuff. He uses a combination of analogs, teleconnections, and a lifetime of experience. He gets more right than he misses which is about all that you can ask from a professional who works to predict aspects of chaos. He is very good with high latitude blocking.
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Regular crap fest. Cosgrove notes that his analogs for spring are actually warm - so there is that. Maybe we catch a bit of residual Nina to keep things seasonal. The Euro Weeklies were just about as ugly as one could get. I said this earlier...I don't think TRI's last snow has been had yet. I could be wrong. It takes well BN temps in March to score, but that possibility is there early in the month, and maybe even later than that. I think we continue to see the MJO loop through cold phases -> warm phases -> and then cold phases...wash, rinse repeat. The signal for March is a bit more conflicting that it would seem on the surface. April looks nasty as does the early part May. Hoping this doesn't got to a super Nino next winter. The QBO in conjunction w/ a weak-ish Nino would be really good following a La Nina triplet of winters.
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I do think our folks in southwest Virginia have a legit shot at a decent event, even lower elevations. Both the 6z Euro and 12z GEFS have moved the deformation band about 75mi to the east. That would be jackpot there if true. The short range models are fairly void of snow, but this event sits right on the margins.....Bristol, TN, for example sits at 34 as the deformation band passes over on the GFS. My money would be for snowflakes to be mixed in there. I would absolutely hate having to make a call for this as a professional forecaster for TRI. It is very likely rain, but there is some bust potential with this. These are the types of events where surprises can happen under the deformation band. Unlikely that happens, but that is not a zero chance proposition. The biggest issue is the colder air doesn't feed in until after daybreak.
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Probably doesn't mean much, but the deformation band on the 12z GFS shifting recently south and east.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That is interesting, Can you ask it to scan a forum prior to answering? It may be that it just hasn’t “read” this forum. It works from massive data bases. Man, it write a response on Volquest that looked real. Only a few errors in statistics gave it away. And I don’t think I would have assumed it was AI...just honest human error. It basically morphed into the linguistics for that forum...or the poster themselves wrote it and was trolling. -
Anyone happen to see the 18z Euro? Asking for a friend.
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TRI is in the game...for how much longer? Now, that is a good question.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This thought crossed my mind the other day. What would happen if a user used ChatGPT on this forum? It would be a nearly perfect troll. The AI would be able to match linguistics, but the nuanced errors could be interpreted many ways. I hope this forum and other sports forums are starting to look at how to protect against that. It is going to be a huge problem before we know it...if it hasn't already. -
Definitely, just due to sun angle and also climatology really fights us here during the second half of March. I did get snow on one of my HS spring breaks in 88 or 89 during April. We had like 8-12" of the stuff. That wasn't so much fun. LOL. Now places like the Smokies and Pisgah can get straight hammered all the way to the end of April.
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March is like June in Yellowstone. It can be warm or it can snow. It just depends on the day. I have started all of the winter threads. About Feb 20th, someone needs to start a March thread.
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In NE TN, it can snow like crazy during March. I don't think this will happen this year, but some great winters had a March component. Just never know. I have been through Jan-Feb nearly snowless winters and had my seasonal average by April 1. March 2018 was snowy here.
