87storms

I feel like I could live in the northeast for the sake of the outdoors/new trails to explore/not having to track a rain/snow line on the reg, etc...but not sure how I'd feel about 4-5 month long winters. I'm usually a 3 month season type of dude.

I'm right there with ya. Drove through a few non-accumulating snowshowers from Frederick to Bethesda. We're better than this lol. It's legitimate snowstorm or Spring for me at this point.

March 23 is the start of Sweet 16, to give you an idea of how far away that is.

I don't think the cost/benefit of getting hyped over a 5 day range is worth it at this point, let alone 7-10+ days. We're entering the portion of climo where a 850 warm nose can show up within 24 hrs after a week of tracking. I'd be interested if I was in the higher elevations and I'd like to see a storm before the season concludes, but too much needs to go right once we get past mid-March to get invested. Average high temp is approaching 55 degrees lol.

I think part of what's going on is this idea that we can outforecast the models. Looking for potential is one thing...wishcasting (which was prevalent for several days in this thread) is...well, it's wishcasting lol.

Snow tv has commenced. Little bit of radar/rate lag here, maybe due to the easterly component to the wind, but these might actually be the best dendrites of the season so far. Too bad it's only gonna last about 15 mins. Radar has the look of a system that isn't tracking where we want it.

Daytime snow gets bonus points.

Without any arctic airmass in sight, we usually need a favorable H5 track. I don't think it's absolutely necessary for an ULL to track under/over our location, but without having sufficient cold in place, we need to be on the colder side of the upper levels or it's a dice roll...and it's even a dice roll with precip as I think that introduces the potential for dry slotting. I'm still learning...I could have some of these details wrong, but long story short, we usually need the northern stream to dig further and/or phase earlier. With that said...both waves are close enough for at least snow tv, so might as well track 'em.

You forecasting for Brooklyn or DC? Lol. The potential is there and the Euro surface is inspiring, but verbatim that looks like a setup where the SS runs out ahead and we get a Miller B late developer. Maybe Bmore could cash in if things pop quick enough...but that's a big maybe with that kind of setup. I don't recall closed lows in the GL or upper Midwest being a good thing for the DMV...we really need that northern stream to dig further. In fact, one thing that's been absent for a while is getting a clipper to dig far enough south to impact our region.

lol, that was Rev, not me, but that's the type of snowstorm we need in this forum.

Now that's a snowstorm. I'm done with the cartoppers. I'm gonna see what happens with that follow-up wave. I may end up chasing that one if it ends up being a late forming Miller B.

Seems like such an unusual setup, but that hp to the north on the Euro looks pretty legit, so maybe we don't need the typical "H5 track under us" this time as much as we normally would.

I mean, needing the jet stream to be further north in mid-March is better than needing cold. Precip is always easier to weasel our way into.

Yea, the gom looks closed for business on this run, but it’s early in the game.

Flow is kinda flat after that 1st wave, but still looks workable if that trailing northern stream wave can dig further.

I missed the Terps game, but so far they're overachieving this year. It's gonna take Willard another year or two to recruit the squad that he has in mind. As long as they make the tourney this year, that's a plus for a first year coach....and should help with recruiting.

Honestly, a storm that's chaseable to Harrisburg would be an upgrade over what's occurred this winter. If it's snowing as south as Michaux, I'm in.

0z might be the most important runs of the winter since 18z. Stakes are getting higher.

Oh, trust me, I'm all in lol. Only a few weeks left anyway...might as well finish strong. Hopefully, the Terps do, too.

It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150 I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble. Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is.

Is that a low or a weak high? I'm kidding, but I think a Miller B needs to get serious quickly off the coast before we can really ever benefit, at least in this relatively wonky setup. Funny thing is that it's still only Sunday and this system is 5+ days out...so who knows what could happen.

Glossing over the 12z suite, that follow up wave looks like the one to pay attention to. For the late week system, it looks like snow showers as the upper level low swings would be a win for that one…which is kind of how things typically work in our favor during a pattern change (ie, cold front swings through with a test taste and then a follow up wave).

The shading is the departures from normal. I think it's basically saying getting a low to track further south is less likely at this time of year. (I should edit this part to say likelihood is also dependent on the track/time of year, etc.) This chart is probably better if you don't care about the anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023030400&fh=186 (clearly showing a west track for this particular run).

lol, seems like until we get the troughing out of the west, it's gonna be rough sledding for a snowstorm aside from a well-timed wave on the heels of a departing arctic airmass (the latter of which hasn't occurred except for a couple times all winter). On the bright side...spring training and March Madness incoming.

It's gonna be a lot of raising of the poker hands for each run until Monday lol.