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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    Numbers are fun, but the confusion matrix in ML has taught me just how misleading they can be. To me, a 2-4/3-6 event is a success if the grass is covered. Small branches on the ground can stick up, but I only accept it on small quantities. And that’s my version of not knowing what that means.
  2. 87storms
    I find the rgem to be a budget nam.
  3. 87storms
    Oh, trust me, same lol. But keeping expectations in check.
  4. 87storms
    Kind of a weak surface low and it's gonna be zipping as the cold air moves in. I've been getting February 2, 2010 vibes with this one. Nice little event, but not a very high ceiling given the entire setup.
  5. 87storms
    Approved.
  6. 87storms
    Frederick seems to do pretty decent with these "rare" southern storms due to the combo of upslope and valley CAD. NS dominant storms are a little more sus as I get that downslope component. I think NPZ lives in an area where those effects are amplified. What makes that Clarksburg to Damascus area in Moco (and along that line) underrated for snow is they're usually not too far north or south and have topography working for them. I think they actually average a little more snow than downtown Frederick.
  7. 87storms
    Dr Nod
  8. 87storms
    Maybe already posted, but the afternoon LWX disco sums up the event well and indicates the Euro AI might be the better model to use for this event.
  9. 87storms
    I think the lower qpf is more a product of the quick-hitting nature of the storm more so than it being just a bunch of snow grains falling from the sky.
  10. 87storms
    This winter is slowly moving up the rankings. We can't seem to escape snow.
  11. 87storms
    I vote amped. I’ve retired from cosmetic snow events. That’s a December thing.
  12. 87storms
    I don’t think I can get past the texture lol, but never say never I guess.
  13. 87storms
    Snow would probably look awesome there.
  14. 87storms
    Sometimes it just takes an open mind. I thought I hated oysters until I ate fried oysters last night.
  15. 87storms
    Surprised to see barely a dusting at Bwi. Got a coating in Frederick. Roads were fine, but it clearly was sticking earlier. Side streets still had spotty accumulating. Looks like up to a half inch might have fallen.
  16. 87storms
    Looks like I’ll be arriving back in town to a whitened ground.
  17. 87storms
    My coworker, who was an operational forecaster for several years (and still checks the models, though now in biz dev) insinuated similar. Polar vortex might push things south, but how south who knows. Interesting pattern regardless.
  18. 87storms
    Dc getting more snow than Frederick is believable tbh
  19. 87storms
    Looks like a suppressed pattern next week…maybe too much of a cold push. But still intriguing. I want a snowstorm.
  20. 87storms
    Not sure if anyone can watch live, but I just got to the major upgrades in modeling presentation at ams. The euro and gfs are at 9 and 915 (CT), for those interested. You might be able to watch it via the ams website.
  21. 87storms
    Some Euro reps have a booth at the AMS conference. Let me see if I can get some intel.
  22. 87storms
    I was trying to figure that out while on an ams break lol. In other news, Cantore is one of us. He was attending the “winter weather in a warming world” presentation this morning. Also briefly met Jason Samenow, who sat down next to me and my coworker (saw the name tag). I recognized the name from cwg. Tons of presentations and posters here. Heard the Bmore one was also pretty big.
  23. 87storms
    Lol, the sun is making a strong appearance today
  24. 87storms
    Feels mild outside compared to what it’s been. Mini-torch ongoing.
  25. 87storms
    I didn’t even realize the super bowl was in nawlins. They should have had the ams conference that week lol
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