87storms

In a zonal flow, yes. I miss the days when we’d get an easy west to east system that redeveloped over the TN Valley.

I wouldn’t go that far lol, but it has improved. I can recall numerous winter storm watches and warnings growing up that ended up being a bust for a variety of reasons (downsloping, temps, etc.). Models didn’t seem to handle the impacts of terrain very well.

I’m starting to crave another Feb 87. That storm had elite, top tier rates that overcame a mild day leading into it. 1-3” was forecasted and we ended up with a foot.

March is gonna be epic… Match Madness, that is.

I was hoping for a more classic torch this week, but seems to be favoring cooler than expected so far.

We need an El Niño in the worst kinda way.

45 degrees here. Way too cold outside today.

Yes.

Eh, gotta see the data to see how much to weigh that type of median change. I think it would be more fruitful to take the interquartile range and get the average from that, so there’s no outliers skewing things.

Yea, but that’s why the confusion matrix exists. In machine learning, having a 90% accuracy is fruitless if you’re missing all the true positives (leading to 0% precision and 0% recall). Likewise, if you say it’s gonna snow all the time, you’ll catch all the true positives (snowstorms), but even though your recall will be 100%, your accuracy and precision will be 10%. F1 score is a key metric in weather forecast scoring, I would imagine.

I will say though that to my surprise one of the basketball courts near me is now 99% dry…which was actually surprising, though it does get some good sun (when there’s sun). Fog eating snow might actually be a thing. Really won’t be much left of this snowpack by next weekend.

This is the Cal Ripken of snow cover. It’s gonna take a day off on its own terms.

Oh I’m just referring to euro ai as a product lol, but good to know the ensembles haven’t turned into a fish storm yet.

The euro ai is impressive to say the least. Neural networks ftw, though the black box, lack of interpretability of nn’s needs improvement.

To be fair, I think our bigger miller b busts are from systems that are almost entirely northern stream dominant with very little Gulf Stream return flow leading in. I think the question with this next storm is how diggy that NS wave is.