87storms

I just like seeing an actual wave in the south. If it gets suppressed, so be it, but it’s at least something fruitful to track beyond the leftover scraps we’re getting from the northern tier.

Lol

Another round of wind has made an appearance here.

Having the gulf open for business is music to my ears.

That’s actually a pretty weak correlation with the relationship potentially caused by outliers. Not sure where you got the 62.5% from unless you were looking at a sample of data? I only say that because R^2 in that case is 6.25%. I think when looking at these indices, it’s easy to get caught in a chicken/egg loop unless there’s clearly pressure-level signals for snowier winters like with nao/ao, etc.

Slightly different than Sunday's fish storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=72

this is much more inspiring than what we've been working with lately: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=180

You mean you don’t like it when it’s below freezing, windy, and cloudy with no snow?

Late next week definitely looks like the period to watch.

There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

Eastern shore is basically a different climate than i81, so I could absolutely see how this ends up a Richmond/Norfolk to OC special.

So somewhere between pretty damn good and awful?

Yea we don’t really get the crazy surprise storms anymore. The models also do a better job at drying up northern stream systems as they cross the mountains. Those types of systems were a source of busts back in the day. One of the presentations at the AMS in New Orleans mentioned how there’s gradual improvements in modeling even up to day 10.