cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Yes, I meant Jan 2017. Sorry.
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To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion). I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.
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He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here.
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Most of them bad, apparently.
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So what does "getting NAMed" mean? I had thought it was when the NAM showed a rediculously overdone QPF at range. But I saw a post in the main storm thread which seemed to imply it meant when the NAM was first to sniff out a warm nose and rained on your snow parade. Which is it?
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By the way, I like your little header "1899 Repeat, Please". I learned about the great 1899 cold outbreak in my well-loved copy of Christopher C. Burt's "Extreme Weather". -2 F in Tallehassee! Here is a link to a journal article about it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0305%3ATGAOAE>2.0.CO%3B2
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You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm. An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding, aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground. And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.
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Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend
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Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?
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Good to see you posting Downeastnc. I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us. Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.
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We're used to it.
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Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?
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That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality. Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof.
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Looks like ENC is going to get an epic dose of...cold rain.
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Oh, it's academic for me. I'm not getting anything anyway. It's just that they were really hyped yesterday but were bummed after that last model run. It;s a roller coaster ride for sure.
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The MA forum is frowny-faced right now.
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That surprises me, the Raleigh area has been burnt so many times. Not that he has anything to do with the RAH forecast, but I think Greg Fishel lost 3 years of life just from the Jan 2016 debacle alone.
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It was last year right after Christmas in the Dec 29ish time frame where there was a large storm modeled which went poof due to being suppressed. In retrospect, I am glad that it did, because that suppression was the herald of an arctic outbreak the likes of which I had never seen before, including frozen-over lakes in Wilson, NC. In my opinion, that is more enjoyable than any individual storm. And much of NC still got to cash in on some snow later anyway.
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Thanks, Don.
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I'm not sure I understand the part about the winds. Why did winds predominantly from the east (offshore) make Tampa relatively warmer than cities actually in the center of the peninsula, where I presume there would be the least moderation from the ocean?
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I have to admit I am curious, are the other Florida stations reporting similar records?
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Wow, that is unusual. Actually, I find it unusual in the first place that its previous record month was a June. I expect the vast majority of warmest months in the NH temperate zones are either July or August.
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Do you mean warmest September on record, or warmest month PERIOD.
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Sorry I didn't see this question until today. I'm not sure if they drained the lake or just lowered the level. In any event, the dam held, although it was over-topped.
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I think Solak is scarred because his location has apparently replaced wherever Shetley lives as the desert spot of the east. Seriously though, some folks in my hometown of Hope Mills are at risk of being flooded out for the second time in three years.
