cbmclean

I would love to see a rigorous analysis of RDU temp statistics based on observation locations. Over the last decade or so, seems like like instances of it being warmer than KFAY are becoming way more common. I have to question the reality of that.

Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me. Realities that I need to learn to accept . 1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now. It is August part deux. 2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year) 3. February is a spring month. 4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April). Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time. 5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me. 6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative. Do not buy into the weekly forecasts 7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one. 8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again. 9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity .

Wow. 1954 was a miserable early October.

Even better is the experimental 12.5 month forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec 2020. The good cheer never ends.

Amazing how warm 1925 was; must have been awful in those pre-AC days looking forward to Fall relief and getting a face full of high summer. Also, amazing how soupy last year was at Asheville.

Where were you located?

One thing has me perturbed. A few days ago it looked as if the front was going to stall and we would get several days of elevated rain chances. Now it's going to barrel through in one day. If I miss out on Tuesday, it's dry for another week. I'll be anxious all day.

Don't look over in the MA forum. They have a thread already cancelling this upcoming winter.

Baby steps. From the RAH forecast discussion. Some notable trends have unfolded in the guidance over the past day or so, namely a trend toward a more unsettled weather pattern for especially the first half of the long term, which would in effect limit the excessive heat potential that we are expecting for the mid- week period.

Also, neglected to post this earlier. Here is a hailstone from the beginning of the storm on last Friday. I think this one is a due to several stones melting and refreezing together.

Had some torrential windy rain in Wilson.

I was just about to post the same thing. Keep hope alive.

All right, looks like it's about time to lower the blinds, turn out the lights and wrap this one up.

Ah, southern Wake screwjob. Cold Rain will be happy.

Him and his dang snow shields.

Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC.

MA folks worried about suppression as shown on GEFS. Often a good sign for us.

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960. Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Just plain sigh...

Well, the wording of his statement "I take full responsibility for my actions ..." kind of suggests to me that he did something bad to someone else. I could mention the first thing that comes to mind, but it would be baseless speculation. Man, I am bummed I grew up with him.

I am seriously bummed out by this. I wonder what the heck happened.

First I heard of this. What the heck happened?

It amuses me that even with biblical snow in Alabama, it still shows a harsh Wake County gradient. Cold Rain would approve.

The NAO is known to be streaky on a decadal scale, so I am hoping that some the warmth of this past decade might be natural variation. That being said I expect regular snowfall (ie a nice one every three years or so) in the non-mountainous areas of NC/SC to cease in the next decade or two.

Well, if you have to have only one model on your side, I would prefer it to be the euro.