cbmclean

The Atlantic bathtub certainly can't help, but I will be personally focusing on the Pacific next winter at least for a first evaluation. If and only if it cooperates will I worry about what the HL/Atlantic are doing. Actually I would like to ask you guys about this: when exactly was the last time we had a "good Pacific"? I know the last three years it has ranged from sub-mediocre to horrible. I remember that two week period at the end of 2017, beginning of 2018 which brought extreme cold to the east. It doesn't seem to be too fondly remembered up here because it was just cold/dry, but it was fun for my neck of the woods so I am calling that "good". Other than that when was the last good Pacific period? 2013 - 14? I don't really remember it being particularly good or bad in 2014-15. 2016-17 was a very bad winter for me because I had that December torch but I didn't have the Jan 2016 event to sweeten it. I associated the problems with that year being from the super-duper-hyper el nino though. Not sure if that is the same kind of "bad Pacific" we usually mean. I think the Pacific was mostly bad in 2016-17 as well. So two weeks of "good Pacific in the last six years? is that accurate?

I think Ji may be one if the few exceptions. I've seen pictures if him before but in my head I still picture him as looking somewhat like Sheldon from Big Bang Theory. Not sure why.

I look more cursive in person than I do in the pic.

That catchy theme song with cash register effects us running through my head right now.

That makes me sad.

In my Head i picture everyone as their profile pic. Stormtraker let IS Beethoven. You are Bob Dylan. Mrs. J is Mrs. Slocombe be from Are you being served. Maestrobjw be is a sentient treble cleff. I get disappointed when I see peoples real pics and they look nothing like I pictured them. Eta: Just noticed someone else Ninja-ed me.

So what us the thermodynamic mechanism where clouds cause the nighttime temp to rise? I can understand them slowing the rate of cooling, but how are they warming?

Always hug the least see snowy model

Thunder and lightning to go along with heavy rain in Wilson.

Glad to see something trending well for once for you guys. I now return to my endless CAD rain event here in NC.

You mean they actually had history on the History channel? I thought it was 24 hours-a-day of Alaskan gold prospectors and crab fishing.

So does that sum up to 0?

Quick question. What the heck is the RDPS?

Winter weather fail lesson #17235: If the HP isn't in the right place, the cold air ain't getting past the mountains, not matter what the models show.

Incredible.

Model and time?

So hypothetically, what would it take to get that arctic air pointed at us instead of just battering helplessly against the mountains. Where should the HP be?

Yeah that was a bit of a gut punch. Its completely reasonable to be negative about our chances now.

After you have had your fill, can you please give it a push to the east? The cold seems to be hung up on the mountains. See if you can unsnag it please.

So, how bout them Caps?

In depressing news, here is a graph I made of the long sad story of the 2m temp at 1 pm for one particular gridpoint in central NC according to the GEFS for the days Feb 14 - 16. A tale of opportunities missed.

Well someone earlier was saying they they wish they had a 1044. Ask and ye shall receive. Until the next run taketh away.

Weenie fight between psu and loosetoa6.

If he never enjoys what he accomplishes, what is the point of accomplishing it?

That would be disappointing, concert in Brownsville TX than at RDU. But the models seem to be completely unable to pin the PV down. I wouldn't say we are out of the running yet.