jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much.
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Pretty crazy this close in. I’m sure today the models will start to converge on something. Hopefully the western models come east more. If you take a consensus of everything I should be good.
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Seems like all the models hit that area with at least a light to moderate event and even though the RGEM backed off slightly it wasn’t much. I’d rather be there for this than east of the city. Maybe the Euro AI can save us all.
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16 this AM. Again colder than expected.
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Tough call where I am. RGEM looks a little better but verbatim still a washout, GFS at 6z definitely got more amped to the point that just SE of me doesn’t get much. Euro still better but generally weaker. The best zone looks to be 30-50 miles west and north of the city, here I’m definitely sweating but hopefully can get a few inches. Hopefully we see a consensus just a little less amped like the last few GFS runs.
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Yup pretty much totally perfect on that run.
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It's been steady if not trending even further west, and its outcome makes sense if the S/W is sharp and trough orientation isn't favorable for the coast. I wouldn't discount it but I'd note it as an outlier and hope other models don't trend towards it.
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Looks like a nice outcome actually.
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NAM is absolutely horrendous. It can make a 180 turnaround within 24 hrs of an event. It needs to be retired.
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I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.
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Would be fitting for this winter though. Suppressed garbage, dry windy cold, then on 2 days where it spikes above freezing a coastal hugger all rain rushes through, then back to even worse dry windy cold.
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Yup, that run's a disaster. It's been consistent so can't discount it.
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Awesome. Hope we can get good ratios to max those amounts. You want temps -12 to -18C in the snow growth zone for best ratios.
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Light snow-dusting on cars.
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If we have the better 500mb look aloft I’m not so worried about QPF since we should have better lift and banding. Although this will be out in a hurry so amounts will be limited that way. This won’t be a major snow event but a 3-6” type event would be great for all. Hopefully we can edge it up for some to get 7-8”. Last thing we want is more useless dry windy cold with bare ground.
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Good that other models aren’t pushing west like the RGEM.
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It’s the GFS but hopefully that’s exactly what we converge to.
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Hopefully in 24 more hours we're converging on a snowy outcome for everyone. But it's thread the needle based on the wave spacing and trough orientation. There's no confluence/blocking to the north to nudge it east. I don't see this as a slam dunk moderate event that others seem to. Maybe this fast Pacific pattern can save us for once.
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Yup, a washout from the city east. Icon not quite as bad but close.
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Few flurries here.
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HRRR has flurries to maybe a dusting here or there. Hopefully you’re right.
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Sure they do-now. I’m not locking onto anything for another 24 hours. In a whatever can go wrong will winter which it’s been up until now, best to have that mindset. I hope they’re right as much as anyone but I can see how it turns into another fail. Nothing really stopping a hugger other than the trough orientation being favorable. It could definitely amp more since there’s no blocking out ahead of it this time. But sure if we can lock onto a GFS type solution it’ll be a very nice system.
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Sure it could. If it’s too amped like the GGEM it rains for most of it NYC East. There’s no confluence/block forcing it east and the cold air around comes in behind the storm. We want the trough/orientation east of GGEM so it has to take the offshore track. That’s why I want the track 50 miles or so SE of that so we all have a nice event.
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If we can just get the RGEM outcome 50 miles SE that would be perfect for everyone. Not a huge storm but possibly 6”+ for some. It’s a matter of the S/W sharp enough to generate lift and on a good track as others pointed out. Would be nice to have a decent snow before this cold push.
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Models are showing us in the low single digits and below zero just inland on Tue AM and any snow cover would make it even colder. It’s not historic cold but impressive all the same.
