jm1220

Maybe in part but that death band sat over central Suffolk which made it cold enough. Up where I live now it's usually 2-3 degrees colder than NYC all else being equal which made it cold enough to flip to snow sooner. In Long Beach where I lived then it was infuriating watching the wasted heavy rain and sleet for hours. I remember seeing posts where it was heavy snow down to Sunrise Highway but still sleet at my house. It of course did snow hard eventually but 2 degrees colder and there would've been 20" instead of 10-11".

I was a toddler then. My focus was throwing spaghetti on the walls lol. I remember 93-94 as a cold snowy winter but 95-96 really got me into weather.

The Feb 8 2013 event wasn't ruined for many of us by the track, it was the primary low bringing in warm air that had to be dealt with by the bombing coastal, which SNE is far enough north to not worry about. Without that initial warm air NYC would've gotten over 20" easy. Parts of Westchester had over 20".

This Dec will probably be slightly below average temps. See how well that's working for us.

It's frustrating but we obviously have way long to go. Feb 2021 was a purely awesome winter month despite Jan being horrendous and walking into Feb 1st with only the 8" I got before rain on 12/16/20, then 30" in 15 days and the snow lasting. Hopefully we can get some blocking to come back later in the winter and we can time that with a cooperating Pacific. One thing this new climo is good for is making something work in a big way when we can get the pieces together.

Hence my being hopeful but not excited when this pattern was being advertised. We also saw ways it could go wrong when the Pacific refused to play ball and here we are. Maybe we can salvage a good January run like many of us last winter.

I doubt it happens like that with this weird multiple centers evolution. That usually happens when the model can't figure out where to put the main center under the strong dynamics/lift advancing NE. What I want to see is it digging a little later/further east. If we have a strong neutral tilted trough over the MS Valley we're in trouble.

Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to.

Maybe not that cold. Strong 970mb low over Hagerstown would likely spike us to 50 for a while.

N winds behind the low finally pulling cold air down.

Something else Nina’s are known for… northern stream dominant systems. I know there are many other factors influencing things but this Nina has to end.

Apparently there was moderate flooding today in the Nassau/Suffolk south shore bays during high tide. I don’t see any media/Facebook photos yet so maybe not too bad.

AVP’s snow average is probably in the mid to upper 40s per winter. They definitely have a shadowing effect from the Poconos nearby as well as the lower elevation. Central PA can get messed up so many different ways in winter storms especially over the last 15 years when big miller A type storms became more rare, which is how they get their big time storms-the March 1993 type storms. It’s honestly better here on Long Island than Central PA these days. To me not many surprises with this storm but the warmer/less snowy models did better, which I expected and you nailed.

This is a storm 168+ hours out. We want to see the storm signal and overall upper air pattern. The R/S line is irrelevant here. If we see more blocking and a western ridge nudging east a title more, that’s really what I’m looking at.

It was known 5-6 days ago this wasn’t our storm because of the crazy wrapped up primary which ruined the airmass and consistent hugger track from the redeveloping low when it finally did meet the block. As long as we had this easterly flow we were done here. We needed a stronger block or early redevelopment.

The storm signal not track is the most important takeaway right now but hopefully we have enough of a block in place to force a further east track. But it definitely makes sense for the jet fuel water temps offshore to try to pump a ridge east of the storm and force a westward track. On the other hand, maybe we can get the “convective feedback” to come in handy for once lol.

Anything’s possible at this stage. We have a signal for a big storm which is just about all that’s given now. Minor fluctuations could mean a raging cutter driven washout and Pittsburgh blizzard or an offshore slider.

This is crazy and has to be exaggerated to some extent. My snow average here is in the low 30s annually probably, there's no way Kingston/Poughkeepsie are 20" per winter. Downtown Albany only 40"/winter?

The airmass was lousy out ahead of this and if anything is even lousier than expected. Where I am was out of it as long as it was clear the strong easterly flow was happening but a better prior airmass could've saved a decent event for more and maybe even had a couple hour burst of snow here before rain. Maybe downslope and the warm easterly flow are hurting areas E of the Hudson.

Umm, what? Today's storm is up the coast. We just got skunked with an awful previous airmass. 12/26/10, 12/6/03, 12/5/02, 12/19/09, 12/25/02, 12/30/00, 12/16/20 etc etc etc? What a joke.

Pretty much a complete fail for this winter storm in central PA-precip is breaking up/ending sooner than expected, less snow when there was heavy precipitation etc. But it could be totally different for places in this sub forum. As I said in an earlier post Central PA is one of the worst most frustrating places for winter weather now where it’s almost a given that winter storms will fail in some way. Soundings are always best to look at vs clown maps. The models with the heavier snow had more dynamic cooling that held back any mid level warming. Southerly 700-850mb winds are never ideal.

Keep in mind some of what looks heavy S of NYC is bright banding which are what would've been our snowflakes melting in our delightful 41 degree maritime gunk. The liquid forming around the snowflakes artificially makes the radar think it's heavy precip. The radar is orange over my house and I'd say it's barely moderate rain. A few thousand feet up though at 850-900mb it's still cold enough for snow.

I'd care a lot more about the upper air setup, ensembles and the storm signal at this stage. Tracks over the BM, more minute details like when/if any capture happens we won't know for several days. Even 72hrs out it can be very fickle. But this has the hallmark of something that can work out very very well for us if it comes together.

Good point, gusts on the shore may reach 45mph. Wind advisory out for E Suffolk but may be shifted west. There’s a strong high north of us which will provide a solid pressure gradient.

Not sure if or how it’ll translate east but this looks pretty underwhelming so far in central PA. Looking at State College webcams there’s a thick coating of probably sleet from earlier today and it’s been 32 degree cold rain for the last few hours (maybe some is accreting but not much). Colder models had them getting 7-9” even using Kuchera and the official forecast was 4-6”, doubtful that happens. Back edge is also steadily pushing east and dynamics won’t work to flip it to snow very well if precip gets spotty.