jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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In Boston and I-90 corridor which get plenty from SWFE type systems absolutely, and then the buried scenario happens when they have much more time than us for the miller B to crush them. For even the relative table scraps in NYC scenario to work out, the trends for confluence need to get better. If in the next 48 hours we don't see more improvement I'm closing this one out (models so far look about hold-serve, GFS a little worse). Remember also that if anything these SWFE type events trend warmer at the end because models usually don't pick up the mid level warmth until the end. We don't want this to still be a SWFE when it gets here.
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The 3k NAM has over 150 inches of snow in some of the mountains NE of LA from the upslope conveyor coming in. At 60hr which is the end of the run the heavy rain is still coming in too. That's overdone but some of the snow totals in those mountains will be obscene with the low snow levels and due SSW upslope flow.
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I wouldn’t get excited until we’re within 96 hours and probably 72 hours. Any Miller B setup for NYC is very fragile. Could definitely work out but we need strong blocking and some cold air at least better than we’ve had to force redevelopment off the Delmarva and it to be snow. There needs to be a brick wall in place to force that redevelopment in time to save us from going all or mostly rain or fast dry slot. Us-south of I-84 especially west of CT. The "default" with these is that SNE gets buried and we beg/do tricks for some table scraps SW of NYC.
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A kick in the groin like that would totally fit this winter. Rain/sleet mix in Melville. Another T.
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Euro’s probably insanely overdone but the fact remains that we need an earlier transfer. There could definitely be a powerful coastal storm given the untapped warm waters off the coast and the fact we’re headed into prime season for some big ones. Without the early transfer it’s essentially another crap SWFE as far as we’re concerned.
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All depends on where such redevelopment would happen. A NAO block/50-50 in place would be best. If not it could be congrats Boston or even another sucky SWFE like the others.
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So DC gets the summer like warmth, I-90 to Boston gets the winter storm, we get the lousy raw crap with drizzle. Sounds about right.
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We also need something to lock the cold air in here 90% of the time. We can’t rely on SWFEs to give us decent events like I-90 and north can. Storms will try to cut when they reach us unless something like blocking or 50-50 low suppresses the track. The other 10% are the lucky occasions like the trailing wave etc.
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Thanks for the analysis. Definitely agree that more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how persistent they’ll be going forward.
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The block in December was in a bad place and linked up with the SE ridge which is obviously game over for us. We don’t want these NAO blocks to keep trending south.
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Something I’m curious about is why the NAO blocks keep going south based over the last few winters. That obviously does us no good either since we want the 50-50 low south of the block to create confluence and force the storm tracks underneath us.
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We’ve been due for regression given the bonanza winters we’ve had, but until that massive W PAC warm pool goes away or is outdone by something else like a solid Nino, it will keep reinforcing this winter pattern. Nino/Nina isn’t just about what happens in the eastern Pacific, the counterpart in the western Pacific is just as important. The Atlantic warm pool is a double edged sword and I can see actually helping us when we have a Nino by maybe helping nudge an otherwise suppressed storm north 75-100 miles. This year with the background Nina state it’s obviously a disaster. But in a Nino state I can see it being helpful.
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That’s just in your face depressing.
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Another T. Woo-hoo!
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Spring plants are sprouting up everywhere here.
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If we’re relying on SWFE events to bring snow, 95% of the time we’ll be disappointed south of I-84. New England is closer to the cold air source and does much better in those. If the low won’t redevelop south of us and we’re dealing with a low plowing into Erie PA, most of us are toast.
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No worries.
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Guess I won’t be sleeping for 16 days.
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I was just in Albany and even there there are a few small parking lot piles and that’s it, on 2/16. Remarkable’s right.
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Congrats DC is usually good for us too. Other than rare occasions like 2/6/10 which I think was the only occasion NYC recorded a trace and Philly anything like their 24”. There have definitely been lesser NYC screw occasions like in March 2014 that were good events in S NJ and the DC area but the big dogs usually find their way north enough to get to NYC. There are also many Congrats Boston events that are good for us too but shaft anyone west of the Delaware if not worse. That’s why NYC is so tough to forecast for. We’re on the fest vs bust line on any big event. There hasn’t been one huge event I can remember where it’s been “given” that NYC would get slammed more than 72 hours out. The huge Nino events and Blizzard of 96 were given to nail DC, 2/8/13, 1/25/15 were given to nail Boston. Had last Jan’s big storm been just a little better consolidated like Boxing Day 2010 (which gave zero to DC) vs. the mess of convective lows it was, the best snow might’ve been over the NYC area. NYC in all was on the line until eventually we had to fall on one side of the knife.
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I missed that winter living in TX but weren’t there several other decent snowstorms especially for the coast in Feb and March? LI easily passed 40” that winter. Whether it’s one storm that does most or several, to me that’s a success.
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Feb 1983, Feb 2003, 75 miles away from 2 feet on 2/6/10 and several others that winter that did hit, etc in addition to Jan 2016. I’ll take a Nino any day. If 97-98 wasn’t so overwhelmingly warm it would’ve been a very solid winter since there were so many good tracks. Not endless cutters like so many Nina years. The real wild card is the W Pacific in any Nino now though since we had the W Pacific warm pool in 18-19 and much of the winter behaved like a Nina as a result.
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Yes 2/26/10. The storm tracked due north and eventually looped around so New England had all rain while NYC and northwest were crushed. I had about 10” after a ton of rain on western LI so I can believe NYC had 20” when they were all snow. And the snow I missed out on would’ve been very heavy.
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-20 wind chill at ISP is impressive, but this was blown out of proportion at least for here. Some blocking or at least a favorable PNA to make this last a few days would be more notable in the long run. When we make a run for 70 later this month it will be just as abnormal if not more so and that pattern will last.
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A due north flow down the Hudson would have been colder. There's still some downslope component when it's a NW wind. And yes, snow would've helped. But Feb 2016 in the super Nino just had giant snow piles everywhere and it managed below zero.
