jm1220

Definitely a positive with this storm that there seems to be a floor of at least a decent event with the initial overrunning surge and potential for something really great if we can get this coastal to crank in time.

Oh sure, if this stays intact it looks good for a few hours at least of couple inch per hour rates. That's a thumper if I ever saw it, and tons of moisture coming into the overrunning dome.

Yep I’ve seen it before where it’s been 10 degrees outside and we get tiny needle and sand flakes.

That would make sense, if we start out with good saturation and lift in the -12 to -18C cloud layer we get the best ratios from good snow growth. If that warms up we lose the best ratios. 20:1 is very rare even in the best setups and I’d argue we wouldn’t even want that as that would be pure fluff that would compact/blow away. I’m fine with less snow overall but longer lasting.

Look at 500mb before you look at the surface. What happens at 500mb drives what happens at the surface. You want to see strong confluence in SE Canada if we’re getting a full phase to our west. We’re having a ton of Gulf moisture overrunning into the high pressure dome so the surface is definitely relevant here, but the 500mb confluence allows that high to be in place and to force a redevelopment to our south. And you also want to pay attention to the 700/850mb low tracks, if they stay intact and track to our NW that means we have strong southerly flow from the Gulf at those levels and they will warm. But the big initial overrunning surge can mean a ton of snow falls before that warm air gets too potent at 750-800mb and whatever sleet just hardens up the snow pack into cement once it freezes up. I’ll gladly take 10 or 12” of mixed snow and sleet that freezes into cement.

Would have been 20” easy in Long Beach where I was then had we not wasted hours on heavy sleet. It absolutely dumped.

If this is turning into a SWFE those caveats apply. We need the snow to come in like a wall which hopefully we can make happen into a big high/overrunning surface like this, and it’s a race between the warm mid level air and how fast we can accumulate. The mid levels couldn’t care less about how cold the surface is. If we have 700/850 lows going NW of us and late transfer we will mix. But there could be a lot of snow before that happens. Plenty of time for trends in either direction and if the full phase happens we need the confluence or it will try to cut.

People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing.

If we get 12”+ from heavy dumping snow on the front end and an hour of some sleet at the end I don’t think anybody would complain and if you do you need help. Like I said before our bigger 2020-21 storms mixed at the end.

Yikes. At the airport about to head home, currently 5 at the closest station to my house.

I’ll be perfectly fine with mixing for an hour at the end after a huge front ender thump. Other than the Super Bowl 2021 event all of our major events that winter mixed at some point. The 2/1/21 storm dumped 15-16” IMBY but a small part of it was sleet/rain.

If there’s less confluence and a full phase we could absolutely see an outcome like this where the primary goes well west of us. In that situation the usual caveats about SWFE apply: I-90 corridor is favored for all snow, here hopefully we get the heavy wall of snow before any warm air aloft comes in. But if you have closed mid level lows going west of you it will eventually happen.

If the temp is 30-31 with the heavy freezing rain absolutely-a lot will just run off. When it gets below about 28 or so much more of it will accrete.

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol.

Just want to emphasize again that snow ratios aren’t determined by surface temps when it’s below freezing. It’s much more determined by the snow growth and to some extent winds. Strong winds break the flakes apart which lead to lower ratios and it’s quite possible to have very cold surface temps in the teens but bad ratios because of bad snow growth-sand or needle flakes. You want saturation and lift in the atmosphere layer between -12 and -18C, that creates dendrite flakes that pile up efficiently. I’ve seen it happen several times where it would snow at like 10 degrees but sand flakes that accumulate like molasses.

Coming back tomorrow, would love for a MECS in the teens on the doorstep.

I purposely stay away other then for an occasion because I buy half the store and weigh 5 pounds more a week later haha.

I’m in Italy right now and not quite as good but close second. They put a lot of effort into it there (Uncle Giuseppe’s)

It’s 33-it’ll be tough to do much with lighter rates.

Glad there’ll be snow on the ground when I come home.

Looks like a nice event shaping up for you guys. Enjoy! I’ll be back on Wed night.

I started at Bill Evans then Tri State then here. Over 20 years doing this now lol.

Good luck for Sunday-it’ll be a decent event because I’m away lol. Hopefully between today and tomorrow something for everyone.