jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We lost a decent amount today and some south facing hills started showing bare ground. But a long way to go for most.
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It did well in December when sniffing out the clipper threats and with the miss a week and a half ago.
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Did your kid cry this time when he saw it? He should. Great opportunity to bond over weenie tears.
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Big melt day today. Probably upper 40s for highs. This time of year without clouds we usually overshoot expected highs with the sun getting stronger every day and no leaves on the trees.
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March 2018 would like a word. The problem with this is we’re relying on a very fragile setup that could easily fall apart at this lead time and cold air is lacking. We need a dynamic system to create the cold air essentially and a favorable track.
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Even if we get a good track we have to deal with marginal cold at best. Of course we might finally get the storm but now the cold is gone.
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If it happens awesome. 138 hours left.
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The Little Metfan storm?
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Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion.
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I have a bad feeling the frigid waters will come back and bite us all through April and May as we sit in mid 40s and gunk/drizzle. It'll take sustained warmth to turn that around.
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Jones Beach water temp today is 33. That would explain an actual seabreeze today on the barrier islands. Sheesh. Mid to upper 30s in northern Nassau, around 32 in Long Beach.
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We’re the most difficult metro area in the Megalopolis to forecast in the winter by far. Every storm type can nail us or totally shaft us. The storm types that frequently nail Boston and it’s clear 3-4 days out can slam us, scrape or screw us. Same for the big Miller As that hit DC/Baltimore.
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They’ve been performing quite well this winter, gotta say. They did well with the December clipper threats too.
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Well- at least we won’t be envying Norfolk getting another 12” blizzard.
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There’s 1.5 to almost 2” liquid equivalent in the snow on the ground here. I agree we need a lot more but it’s not powder that’s for sure.
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Colder on the barrier islands today lol. Long Beach stuck at 29-30 and I’m at 33.
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I just can’t give this winter a good grade if we end up with below normal snow especially with blown opportunities in all this cold air. Anyone can see it as they want lol.
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Yep, your typical Miller B with the sharp cutoff where it screws you after developing too late. The day before that Feb 2017 storm was very warm, and I think it started very briefly as rain or no accumulating snow in Long Beach but very quickly started pounding and sticking everywhere.
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I’d give this winter a B-/C+ if we’re really done with any decent snow from here. Definitely cold but once again enormous potential wasted for big storms when we had the cold. Jan 25th as good an event as it was had the most snow north of me since it ended up behaving as SWFEs do. We did luck out in Dec with the clippers but across the area we’re still below average for seasonal snow and I can’t rate the winter as that good unless we make it above average.
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Try living through a Texas summer like I did (twice) and get back to me. Absolutely horrendous.
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Chance at some sleet/freezing rain later especially north of the city but maybe north shore as well.
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I mean it’s Feb 10th now. Temp averages start going up pretty substantially from here and the sun is noticeably getting stronger. It’s the equivalent of August 10th in the summer-can still be hot but the worst is in the past.
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I remember that one, was a fun event in Nassau County. I think I had 10” or so. Was one of those that blew up for NYC and NE into New England.
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Or a marine heatwave somewhere else counteracts it. It’ll be interesting next winter if we go into a Nino, hopefully the western Pacific warmth can shift east and nudge the forcing east of the Dateline.
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I have almost 31” for the season so I can’t call that a disappointment (even if it’s a little below normal for the season still) but it would be a major bummer still if we strike out on snow from here on out. Pretty confident though we can still get enough together to make it above average. Central Park is further away from normal 21”, it might be tough getting them to near 30” even though a couple events were undermeasured.
