jm1220

Yep, even more impressive how fall lasts for 8 months now!

Actual water droplets falling from the sky!

Quite nippy this morning. @nycwintermust be drowning in hoodies.

We had our August deluge on parts of LI and CT last year but after-dry as a bone like this year.

Yep it was in my western sky. It was definitely bright for a split second.

Saw a shooting star about 20min ago in the western sky.

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious.

I’m thinking where I am there’s another couple 90 degree days left, but we’re beginning our first step down towards autumn. With this cooler pattern some leaves might start changing soon in the Adirondacks/Green/Whites etc.

Flooding on Fire Island and the Hamptons, and water up to the dunes elsewhere. Jones Beach looks pretty rough. High tide looks to be coinciding with the worst of the waves. We’re lucky this turned out to sea.

0.4” or so of drizzle. Get this gunk out of here.

Moderate coastal flooding expected along the south shore tomorrow evening. Definitely enough to flood the low lying spots in Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park etc.

This isn't any kind of band from Erin. It's actually the system that's booting it out.

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”.

Lots of misery mist/drizzle.

Yep, a somewhat smaller and more organized version of Sandy. Thankfully this one is headed NE soon. Sandy’s pressure was also a Cat 3 strength but also put any strengthening into a larger wind field.

Maybe it has a run back to 110-115mph left in it but the pressure falls seem to be going into expanding size vs stronger winds and the core still looks degraded/half-a-cane like. The huge area of strong winds are churning up lots of ocean still.

That would be great but as always this summer I'll believe it when I see it. Could easily focus way inland/north. Have to watch it evolve.

I can't think of a PRE that was ever decent IMBY. They're good inland over NJ or the Hudson Valley.

Nina in and of itself isn’t unfavorable for NYC, it’s more of a killer south of the M/D line though last winter was very good snow-wise even in the Deep South when the pattern deamplified. But NYC is in a particular Goldilocks geographic area where there isn’t a defined storm type that can be relied on to produce-we’ve had huge Miller B and more suppressed Miller A, and can if we’re lucky get 3-6” from a SWFE, just about all types other than cutter can produce for NYC but also be a dud. The fast Pacific along with the Nina arranged the pattern in such a way that it caused dud after dud despite cold enough air in place multiple times.

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much.

Could be some pretty significant erosion later this week. 12-15 foot waves possible especially due to Erin expanding in size. Any weakening unless it’s rapid won’t affect the wave heights much-the fetch is a bigger player and it nudging west doesn’t help either.

Also, not saying this to you or anyone specifically but don’t quote him-that will cut down on the posts of his you see as well. I agree that he should put the phone or keyboard away when he’s on his tenth pint in Ibiza or wherever.

Had some thunder when it blew up a little over Plainview. But maybe two drops here.

Maybe a shower here if we’re lucky, the rest is collapsing as it heads over LI or staying over the city as usual.

The lawns kneel and genuflect in anticipation.