Indystorm

DFW area now looking quite ominous for sig svr for Sunday evening with CAPE and helicity quite favorable per 18z GFS this Tuesday if it continues to hold and the first system gets out of the way.

Agree. NAM continues to emphasize a good threat for ne OK and sw MO Monday eve/night with parameters increasing in severity. NAM did better than the more progressive GFS on the Feb. 27/March 1 system so it certainly bears watching as we get closer. Springfield AFD beginning to express concern.

LSR's say trees and power lines down in Whitney area with 4-5 homes damaged, one without a roof.

Good couplet now showing up on NWS velocity radar.

Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars. HHave had this issue before. Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way.

As Thundersnow posted the current parameters look very favorable for one of the best set ups we have yet seen this year if they come to fruition. Any analog mentioning 5/3/99 certainly has my attention.

I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed. Better you than me. Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period!

Good research, Quincy, on your tornado forecast. I suppose it is always more difficult to forecast trends with tornadoes than what a hurricane season might look like as Dr. Gray at Colorado State and others have done well in advance. My concern for May at least with recent model runs is the apparent lack of a strong jet stream in the CONUS. That, of course, can change.

I wish I could give you a Pulitzer prize for web journalism for this historic thread for your outstanding documentation of this event from its inception through ongoing recovery.

Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.

These commemorative articles and postings are informative and hopefully cathartic,JoMo. It is truly hard to believe that it has been a year and you have done a magnificent job preserving this record for posterity.

It is amazing to re-read this thread and so educational, particularly wrt model differences and what actually played out. I guess I was most surprised by the NAM and GFS catching the morning convection while the RUC totally missed it.

Sure beats the measly winter we had in much of the Midwest this past season. Dramatic early spring warmup and now freeze warnings that have orchard fruit growers in particular concern for apples and cherries in temps drop to 27 or 28 for awhile.

A medical team from the destroyed Mercy St. John's Hospital in Joplin is sharing their experiences here in my Michiana neck of the woods at South Bend Memorial Hospital and at a conference at Notre Dame. Good to learn disaster preparedness procedures for hospitals from those who were directly impacted. Good coverage of their visit by our local news media, especially since the recent tornados in Henryville IN and Dexter MI.

A blessed New Year to you and all those in Joplin. Glad that the church response went so well. Many religious denominations have well structured and experienced relief organizations. Glad you got your personal tornado shelter that exceeds requirements. Living in the Dunlap area of Elkhart with the 1965 Palm Sunday disaster right here I know many people who were affected as victims or in search and rescue. Thanks for all the updates.

JoMo, this is certainly an historic thread and thanks for all your contributions. One thing I was wondering. Did the tornado hit or miss many hotel/motel complexes along its path through the area? I don't remember reading too much about that, mainly St. John's, the schools, homes, and retail.

Birmingham mentions they had the foremost national expert in storm damage assessment to assist their team in determining the strength of the Hackleburg storm. That would have to be Tim Marshall IMHO.

I honestly never thought I would see a death toll from tornadic activity that high again in our day and age. But with so many intense tornadoes churning into densely populated areas it is perhaps almost inevitable even when warnings are timely, heard, and responded to by the general public. Community shelters for mobile home parks and public housing projects could help. I think SPC and NWS forecasters did a terrific job along with local media. I remember in late winter you thought this was going to be a very rough season for various scientific reasons, and I shudder to think we are just now entering May.

Good luck tomorrow Fred. I have meetings in Indpls. Wed. and Thursday and will be away from a computer grinding my teeth until I get back to the hotel to see TWC and news media reports of what's been happening.

Yes, and RUC also has a 110-130 knot 300 mb jet rounding the base of the trough in the afternoon in the warm sector. Not good.

That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.

The Superoutbreak got its name because it is one of a kind and rarely invites comparison. However, I believe the progged low pressure on the NAM for tomorrow if it verifies is lower than the pressure of the system with the superoutbreak for what it's worth.

From this evening IND AFD with respect to Wed. system... VARIANCE STILL EXISTS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS FINAL SYSTEM...WITH THE ENSEMBLES CONVERGING ON A TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA ON THE WESTERN END...TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO ON THE EASTERN END. APPEARS THERE MAY BE STRONG DEEP SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD ALIGNMENT OF THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JETS POSSIBLE...SO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

I think a met commented earlier that it is very rare to see such intensity on a NAM precip display such as this.