Indystorm
-
Posts
5,309 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Indystorm
-
Cells on the TX/NM line are becoming more eastward oriented than the previously north direction maintained by earlier cells this afternoon. This can be good for moisture ingestion. Confirmed tornado 11 miles north of Clovis.
-
I suppose everyone's watching the storm sw of Clovis for development.
-
Yep, I don't usually think of New Mexico with 70/40 probs for tornadoes. Weird. To find the probs go to the SPC tornado watch page then look at the top for Probabilities.
-
Yes, baseball size hail reported at Prosper with that Collin county cell.
-
Yes, it is instructive to watch the DFW composite loop over time and see the storms coalesce into five cells from ne to sw as they move in a southeasterly direction.
-
I have concern for new storms developing on the flanking line westward from the tornado warned cell south of Gainesville as these storms move se to the metroplex.
-
And the cell aiming for Gainesville needs to be watched carefully.
-
Tishomingo has a little over 3000 people. That oncoming storm is also warned for baseball size hail and 70 mph gusts,
-
I'm watching the area around Wichita Falls then eastward. DMC concerntrates there. 3500 to 2000 CAPE as one moves eastward. Good shear with stronger helicity to move in as evening progresses. Supercell composite up to 12 and Effective tor 3 at present.
-
Radar confirmed tornado just south of Carroll Iowa., which is now svr warned.
-
Baseball size hail warning with our Comanche/Barber Co. KS cell.
-
Quite the storm north of Omaha with tennis ball hail and 70 mph gusts.
-
Tor now on the ground in nw MO per new warning.
-
I assume a cap is what is preventing those nw OK cells from taking off?
-
Initiation trying to get going nw of Woodward OK.
-
For the Nebraska cell at least it's another instance of relatively high CAPE (3000) and relatively modest shear and helicity values somewhat similar to yesterday. Not saying by any means we'll get such a whopper of a tornado. But low to mid 60's dews are available ahead of those cells.
-
Wow indeed. Helicity just borderline on that huge Dimmit cell but surface CAPE 3000 to 3500 and all the room in the world to take advantage of the situation. Surprise Surprise!
-
Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Indystorm replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
Yes, on occasion pattern recognition and parameters are such that you can identify a potential significant event a week out. It is interesting that the normally conservative SPC would highlight this 7 days out. -
Helicity is very high in the area where these cells are heading but dews are only in the low 50's. This will be kinematically driven.
-
Svr watch now issued for ne OK with cells progressing northeast.. SPC cautioning that tor risk could increase as storms interact with WF although dews are not that high.
-
Yeah. if you can get dews up near 60 and pool along the front later today things could get a bit interesting in ne OK. Svr storm watch forthcoming soon per meso discussion
-
Tor watch now issued for much of se TX till midnight....40/20 probs
-
Looks like the mass of rain nw of Shreveport is taking on more cellular characteristics along with the cells east of Austin and Waco moving ne. Expect things to get more active as models indicate later in the evening as LLJ ramps up. Could get interesting.
-
Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Indystorm replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
DFW area now looking quite ominous for sig svr for Sunday evening with CAPE and helicity quite favorable per 18z GFS this Tuesday if it continues to hold and the first system gets out of the way. -
Interesting how today's convective outlooks went from marginal to slight to enhanced when I really wasn't anticipating much of anything . Reminds me that svr weather really is a day of event in forecasting.
