Indystorm

Sunday's 12Z GFS much more sensible with the strength of the low pressure for this coming Friday. Not the extremes we have been seeing and puts more of IL and IN in realistic play.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 732 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 LAC031-081-070100- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/ DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA- 732 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 732 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF COUSHATTA, OR 13 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COUSHATTA, EDGEFIELD, GRAND BAYOU AND ARMISTEAD.

Baseball size hail approaching Shreveport. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 554 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... CENTRAL WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 554 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLAIN DEALING TO BELCHER TO NEAR KARNACK, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHREVEPORT, BOSSIER CITY, VIVIAN, HAUGHTON, GREENWOOD, BLANCHARD, BENTON, PLAIN DEALING, COTTON VALLEY, OIL CITY, DOYLINE,

That is a monster tor and tennis ball size warned cell north of Dallas at present.

First tornado warning of this 4/6/18 episode BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 352 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 352 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WILKERSON, OR NEAR BOXELDER, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... DALBY SPRINGS AROUND 410 PM CDT.

Well, for the first time in seemingly ages my IND NWS 8-10 day forecast this morning is calling for ABOVE normal temps and precip. Pattern change?

The daffodils are blooming in my front lawn. Such is the difference in climo and geography from Michigan to Indianapolis. Plus I also have a new pond in part of the yard from all the recent rain and snow melt.

And I admit I have concern for the Gadsden area later this evening as that monster cell to their nw moves se along the warm front boundary.

As if we need training west to east tornadic supercells with good inflow from the south.

I am assuming that the atmosphere is capped south of the present storms in northern Alabama and might unzip later as the LLJ increases and more forcing occurs.

Hackleburg and Phil Campbell potentially under the gun once again as in 2011.

Russellville Alabama is just under 10,000 population.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 536 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 ALC033-059-079-192300- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180319T2300Z/ COLBERT AL-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE AL- 536 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLBERT...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... AT 535 PM CDT, A POTENTIAL LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RUSSELLVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUSSELLVILLE, LITTLEVILLE, MT HOPE, LA GRANGE, THARPTOWN, NE SMITH, ROCKWOOD, LANDERSVILLE, NEWBURG AND HATTON.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 520 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 519 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RED BAY, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUSSELLVILLE, RED BAY, PHIL CAMPBELL, BELGREEN, VINA, HODGES, MT HOPE, CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR, ATWOOD AND THARPTOWN.

Funnel cloud reported by spotters east of Baldwyn MS.

550/350 m2/s2 helicity in the area of that tor warned initial cell in ne MS. We are off to what might be a very dangerous evening.

90/80 probabilities for tornadoes on the PDS watch.

Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 191906Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large hail. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep convection is expected to expand in response to this feature. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into Winston county AL. Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch.

Yes, it's kinda weird to have the neg NAO as we enter March and have it in largely positive territory during most of met winter.

If i have to wait for a sustained pattern shift I would rather have it in April/May/June when it's the height of tornado season and thermos are better to aid kinematics.

New ERTAF prediction for the last two weeks of March shows above average possibilities for tornadoes in the lower and mid MS Valley on north to central IL and IN. Pattern change anyone?

Based on 18z GFS and model trends I would say the PAH CWA from southern IL over to EVV has a good chance of svr on Monday March 19th. Interesting change from the winter wx advisories/warnings in that area this Sunday March 11th.

MO, IL, IN look somewhat interesting if we want to grasp at straws. Models have been showing something in this time period for awhile but location varies and it is still far out. We need to get some good southerly flow and stop these nw flow regimes and New England noreasters.

First tornado warning of this storm system Le Flore county in se OK.