Indystorm

Wow indeed. Helicity just borderline on that huge Dimmit cell but surface CAPE 3000 to 3500 and all the room in the world to take advantage of the situation. Surprise Surprise!

Yes, on occasion pattern recognition and parameters are such that you can identify a potential significant event a week out. It is interesting that the normally conservative SPC would highlight this 7 days out.

Helicity is very high in the area where these cells are heading but dews are only in the low 50's. This will be kinematically driven.

Svr watch now issued for ne OK with cells progressing northeast.. SPC cautioning that tor risk could increase as storms interact with WF although dews are not that high.

Yeah. if you can get dews up near 60 and pool along the front later today things could get a bit interesting in ne OK. Svr storm watch forthcoming soon per meso discussion

Tor watch now issued for much of se TX till midnight....40/20 probs

Looks like the mass of rain nw of Shreveport is taking on more cellular characteristics along with the cells east of Austin and Waco moving ne. Expect things to get more active as models indicate later in the evening as LLJ ramps up. Could get interesting.

DFW area now looking quite ominous for sig svr for Sunday evening with CAPE and helicity quite favorable per 18z GFS this Tuesday if it continues to hold and the first system gets out of the way.

Interesting how today's convective outlooks went from marginal to slight to enhanced when I really wasn't anticipating much of anything . Reminds me that svr weather really is a day of event in forecasting.

Yes, evening shows starting soon. Even if no tor touchdown occurs large hail could do a lot of damage to cars in those theater parking lots.

Tor warned storms with reported funnel clouds at both the east and west ends of the cells in Missouri.

Branson 68/59 with sw gusts to 25 mph

Funnel cloud reported per spotters 6 miles ne of Monett near Hoberg

That storm is becoming one dominant massive supercell.

If the hailer continues hard right Branson may be in trouble.

Greater tor threat may actually be in se MO area as LLJ increases and we have better moisture. But hail and straight line winds are the main concerns.

Good thing that dew points are only in the upper 50's to 60 down by Fort Smith.

SPC meso page has 2000-2500 CAPE now in sw MO with good lapse rates nosing in. Dews leave something to be desired but moisture transport moving northward. Storms trying to fire in se KS nw of Joplin.

Agree. NAM continues to emphasize a good threat for ne OK and sw MO Monday eve/night with parameters increasing in severity. NAM did better than the more progressive GFS on the Feb. 27/March 1 system so it certainly bears watching as we get closer. Springfield AFD beginning to express concern.

LSR's say trees and power lines down in Whitney area with 4-5 homes damaged, one without a roof.

Good couplet now showing up on NWS velocity radar.

Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars. HHave had this issue before. Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way.

As Thundersnow posted the current parameters look very favorable for one of the best set ups we have yet seen this year if they come to fruition. Any analog mentioning 5/3/99 certainly has my attention.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383... VALID 020052Z - 020215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH 02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS. ..DIAL.. 07/02/2015

Effective tor of 6 in west central MO south of the tor warned cell.