Indystorm

Mesoscale Discussion 0230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...northern AL...southern TN...northwestern GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 250005Z - 250100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...A new convective watch is possible to the east of Tornado Watch #61. A tornado risk will continue this evening for portions of northern AL and southern middle TN. DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD show further intensification of the low-level wind profile during the past 1-2 hours. 0-1 km SRH has increased from around 300 m2/s2 to over 600 m2/s2. Surface analysis indicates the area with the lowest temperature/dewpoint spreads (10 deg F) is in the counties adjacent to the TN border in northern AL. Farther south, warmer temperatures have resulted in spreads in the 15-20 deg F range which would lessen but not nullify tornado potential. Given the strengthening low-level shear for mesocyclone organization/persistence, it seems plausible the tornado risk will eventually include the eastern counties of Tornado Watch #61 later this evening. An additional convective watch issuance is possible to the east of the ongoing watch during the next hour or so

That TN cell appears to be a right mover at the present. Not good for Chattanooga environs if this keeps up.

Hackleburg cell now tor warned

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Areas affected...northern AL and southern middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 242235Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely maximize through 8pm CDT near the AL/TN border. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Trends in KHTX VAD data show a strengthening of the wind field in the 2-3km layer during the past 1-2 hours. This trend seemed to be necessary in order for more organized low-level mesocyclone development. The intensification of flow is resulting in around 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per observed storm motions. Surface observations show temperature/dewpoint spreads around 10 deg F and reduced mixing compared to areas farther south. It continues to appear that the corridor for greatest tornado risk will focus near the AL/TN border with the stronger updrafts/supercells through the early evening.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIMESTONE...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES... AT 642 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COURTLAND, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF MOULTON, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DECATUR, ATHENS, TRINITY, COURTLAND, NORTH COURTLAND, HILLSBORO, CHALYBEATE SPRINGS, CADDO, WHEELER AND BASHAM.

Tuscumbia and Muscle Shoals area under tor wrn now for rotation. Storm could be cycling.

And I worry that the cell may be headed for the Florence/Muscle Shoals area as well in the near future.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 534 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 534 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TISHOMINGO, OR NEAR TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHEROKEE, RED ROCK, MALONE, POSEY LOOP, MYNOT, MT HESTER, SRYGLEY CHURCH, NEW BETHEL, CROOKED OAK, ALLSBORO, AND MAUD.

Both currently warned tor cells are moving into an area of higher helicity.

First tor warning of this episode this evening. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 522 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT. * AT 522 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BURTON, OR 9 MILES WEST OF TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TISHOMINGO STATE PARK, TISHOMINGO, BURTON, MIDWAY, PADEN, OLDHAM, MINGO, HOLCUT, BLOODY SPRINGS, PETERTOWN, NEIL AND CARTER BRANCH.

70/40 probs for tors this evening

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeastern Mississippi The southern half of western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next couple of hours from western Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. The storm environment will be favorable for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, in addition to damaging winds and large hail. Storms will spread eastward through late evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Huntsville AL to 55 miles south southwest of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

I definitely support the precautions being taken. But it is part of the psychological need to feel like we are in control. I remember in elementary school having nuclear war drills (not tornado drills) where we would sit under our desk for protection. LOL.

It might as well be spring! Actually I have been watching the storms down in Arkansas in the central thread....new overnight watch raises EF 2 or greater tor probs to moderate from low.

A little surprised that the possibility of EF 2 or greater tornadoes was raised to moderate in the new overnight watch. Must be the low level jet and helicity.

Meso discussion out for probable tor watch for the lower Ohio Valley and adjacent areas. Very good shear and surface-3km helicity up to 500 or better. Gotta watch these warm fronts in spring especially..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 332 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 332 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PINCKNEYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DU QUOIN, PINCKNEYVILLE, REND LAKE AREA, SESSER, VALIER, TAMAROA, INA, NORTH CITY, WALTONVILLE, BONNIE, EWING, NASON AND ST. JOHNS.

Meso discussion also out for area from KC north to Omaha.

Well, remember they did include the classic phrase in reference of "persons in and close to the watch area."

Thought they would because of the mention of increased moisture off to the eastern sections of the area in particular.

PAH now 70/64, cloudy with a south wind gusting to 24. The threat down that way and into sw to central IN has always been for late evening into the overnight hours and kinematically rather than instability driven. Will have to see how things progress today. Any scattered clearing could rev things up a bit.

We can hope the storms remain outflow dominated. But there must be a new wave coming with storms in west Texas getting warned.