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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It would be cool to see a larger sample size, and also time of year. My guess is NAO is very important for NYC, 2:1 to 3:1 for snow.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really impressive warm SSTA.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Why has State College had like 50% of average snowfall in the last 20 years?
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's good to clarify. I'm loosely referring to NAO as 500mb anomaly over Greenland and Iceland. Officially, it's SLP difference, Azores/Iceland.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really nice and anomalous -NAO happening now! (Conditions around the rest of the Northern Hemisphere do not favor this - and the NAO is quite negative!) This is, once again, a big indicator for the upcoming 3 months.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Classic -NAO now Super -NAO upcoming
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Legitimate -NAO November - Dec/Feb correlation is something like 65%
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm referring mostly to NAO and flow at the northern latitudes.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Another note is that the La Nina in Pacific is setting up more east-based, or subsurface based vs surface. Now with a +500dm+ block in the North Pacific in the next few days, it's starting to move in the direction of more favorable Winter pattern (cold), -NAO/-AO long term pattern Winter. 95-96 is a decent analog.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good signs happening now. Models bring back -NAO beyond day 10 and the general momentum of pattern is supportive of "-NAO lock" for the Winter.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Vera was the strongest typhoon to ever hit Japan, Cat3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Vera Much different path, this one. Beyond that, 30% of Japans population is at projected landfall in maybe the best angle possible for maximum impact.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I never really expected it to be cool. NAO while negative will probably be mostly transitory, which means less snow. It would have been really nice to have a different Pacific right now, -EPO or GOA ridge all month, then with -QBO loading pattern, something cold and snowy is 5x more likely. As it is now, the tendency for Atlantic blocking will often be in battle with forces to shear it out.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The way the whole Northern Hemisphere is moving right now feels like a warm Winter to me. Probably Pacific driven.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Historically, the inverse OctoberAO-WinterNAO signal ends around October 25, and then there is increasing similarity, peaking around November 20. Pretty text book right here.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Hermine shifted 240 degrees in the Gulf. It's early in the season for NHC track

  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    re: post

    It's just lazy. those things aren't modeled well 5 days in advance vs climatology. They accept average error mark of X and keep doing it 

  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Strong La Nina and El Nino historically dominate with a strong Polar vortex, overpowering the -QBO times past, although I don't think this to be true in El Nino in theory. Historically data -1.2 to +1.2 ENSO with -QBO is 60% chance of -AO Winter.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    QBO-Winter temps correlation is actually weaker than random on 70 years of data. This also applies to with ENSO. re: post above, throw any 6 years together and you'll probably get concentrated anomalies. I get it lure as predictable. QBO has to do with Stratospheric warming, and -QBO generally means more -AO events, although this works better with El Nino.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    October's AO is 60-65% oppositely correlated to Dec-Feb NAO. Most, maybe all, other months in the year are similarly correlated (maybe one in the Spring was 49%). November is strongest direct correlation. -October/+November is 70%. October is the forecasting stone and it's +AO on models, even where this graph in the long range shows mix.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You're right
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    El Nino/-QBO 60% correlated to -NAO La Nina/+QBO 60% correlated to +NAO
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Interaction signature law of balances states that you can estimate the impact A had on B by seeing what B did to A?
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Storm is really expanding in size. very symmetrical. back to Cat 4 next 24-48 hours.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Becoming more cyclically organized but starting to bias toward the NE side. It's hard to get Cat 5 in this condition. The radar is probably off center or something
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    less weight on Jose, I think. easy model bias identified. Maria is its own beast
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