Jump to content

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,753

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The era of really obvious long term model bias continues... They want to build a -AO I think because of MJO and Stratospheric warming, but it's not mathematical progression, and something intuitively else. My guess is it's different and this could change the outlook Day 7+ more than usual
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty solid match to what's happening, PV establishing over Canada
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end).
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The stuff here is impressive and makes me think this pattern change is favorable to above average Spring.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yo the 18z gfs is not wet through the frames that count
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I've watched the GFS produce those maps all Winter, it's pretty simple that in the pattern it won't happen.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah man. check out this drought
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah it would be unrealistic that there wouldn't be some snow with a +600 block over the arctic circle in mid Winter. It's really thin ice though with the NAO going so positive.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    CPC long term outlooks really missing things right now... I don't understand it. this is a smiley face https://ibb.co/iWkOmb
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I wonder what's going with models? CPC has been continually above average precip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day for about 3 weeks. It's obviously going to stay dry for a while. West coast ridge really flexing on 12z GFS ensembles in 7-14 days, pretty new development since 2009, was a little bit weaker for the last month.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS very dry through the run... surprising. This should not be such a dry time normally.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    PV is lower than 456 pretty far south. There is also a >100 gradient east and west. pretty rare
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Can we turn off the pop ups please? Every new page load, and it's in the way of posting.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty cool
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Regarding ENSO, I think SSTs are so warm right now we would default to +0.5c as the new average, especially in the Spring.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not really possible. Can I have a job?
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The way it's moving now, there is pretty much no way the La Nina holds. Peak season is not passed so there is still some time for a cold push, but subsurface and surface are all moving toward Neutral. Record warm Northern Hemisphere SSTs are the real thing, and I wonder if this will drive weak El Nino in the Spring. It seemed to work last year. Imagine these record SSTs and a developing real El Nino... The jump in certain statistics would be so large I wonder if it's even possible.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Ive noticed in this La Nina- Aleutian ridge/-PNA is overdone or completely wrong on models day7+. Arctic blocking is the strongest tendency right now, and these Pacific ridges get bunched up near Scandinavia/Bering Straight/Alaska. There is also a reverse wave of the North Pacific High, for whatever reason. But this is a cold pattern.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A few individual GFS ensemble members have had some nice snows pretty far south. There should be a few good shots, the Aleutian ridge models have is something that will change soon, default Nina programming or something, I've seen it before, it's a model glitch.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Negative AO will likely be stronger than modeled after January 15. Could be record breaking cold to finish out January, I'm not sure any type of -PNA can build against an arctic block right now.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How did you do in the heart of 13-14?
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    +Polar 10mb heights in December almost always correlates to -NAO/AO mid-January. Probably 80%. This is showing up nicely on GFS ensembles, and they didn't have it a few days ago. This will continue trending stronger, likely +400-+500dm at peak. Split into a 4-wave PV.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How are you doing? Is the blizzard kind of a warm wet snow?
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It can get really really warm, overperforming long range models. Basically, something needed to break in this cold pattern and it didn't, and seemed to maybe strengthen. A lot of extra energy like you would see in El Nino's...
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    lol the roads are wet.
×
×
  • Create New...