AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Tendency for high heights in the Arctic circle has been strong. If this holds, favors a lot of Atlantic recurving storms. 2009,2010,2011,2014,2015 Central Atlantic ridge at 850mb was strongest ever this Winter, up to +30% of mean average (Dec-Feb)! It reversed March with -NAO and has generally been NAO driven through April and early May. My guess is it would come back for the Summer.

Ok.. look at how this filled in in the north part of Greenland then become an arctic circle block (models were consistently negative anomaly here until a day ago). I think this is the same trend from the Winter and it will be a large arctic ice melt season

Where we are behind the 2 Strongest El Nino's since 1997

These only started appearing in the last few weeks. It was opposite every day Summer - March.

Actually all the way back to 1998 there isn't one higher than +2.4 (today is ~+2.7)

Highest NAO today since 2013... 5 years

Apr 29 - May 16 looks to have the most +NAO on record for that time (and all 18-day periods between April and September actually.) The only other time Apr 29 - May 16 has had +NAO since 1997 are 2009 and 2015, interestingly, the 2 strongest El Nino's since 1997.

Weak storms though. They always blow up humid airmasses severe wx threat.

This is pretty interesting. Nino 4 usually doesn't rise this fast, first. When Mar -> Apr is 0.4 difference or greater: 1997, Neutral - Strong El Nino 1987, El Nino - El Nino 1973, Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina 1972, La Nina -> Strong El Nino 1966, El Nino -> Neutral 1958, El Nino -> Neutral When coming from Neutral or La Nina it goes to Strong El Nino 2/2, 2 of the 4 events since 1950, but the other regions are also rising fast by now. I wouldn't forecast Strong El Nino this year. (None of the events listed above Nino 4 led Nino 3) In 2015 Nino 4 led Nino 3 (Strong El Nino). Maybe it's just a sign of the times.

Pretty incredible happening right now with the strength of these ridges. Strongest +NAO in 2.5 years now has 3 bursts, next being Day 5 and Day 9. By the end it's downright hot.

MAM will be +0.3 or greater higher than FMA. Since 1950, this difference has happened 21 times, 13 (61.5%) went into the opposite ENSO state, El Nino or La Nina. Per this, 60% chance we go into El Nino but since it's not still La Nina, maybe 65%. (2016 was the strongest difference)

It's hard the imagine the jet stream would be anything but north this Summer

It seems like the clouds where you are, are 20 years in the future or something. I've always had this feeling about Detroit area.

+NAO is max today - 5/4. Highest since Dec 2015

Clouds are cool. Billions of suspended water crystals. I wonder if fluffy clouds happen for everyone, looking through my parents old pictures there is none of it. It was in my life all the time 1987-2005~2008 range

Have been visualizing this today with regards to the winter

We'll get close to a weak El Nino in a week or two. For the first time, warm anomalies outweigh cold in ENSO.

April 22- May 10 looks very +NAO. Since 2005, 4 years have been -NAO in this time, 2 were La Nina Summer's, 2 were Neutral... 2 years were +NAO, 1 was El Nino, 1 was Neutral. 2-2-0 / 0-1-1 . This is another argument toward El Nino

I think that when this occurs (Pacific trough), there could be pretty serious short term surface warming, up to +0.3 or so

+NAO.. I think if the +NAO can hold, there will be some hurricane season hits

The subsurface is hitting a wall just as the surface is evening out, too mathematical.. but models have a pretty +AAM pattern setting up which is sign of El Nino

It gives the impression of an unwavering cap, moving toward the darkness...

Central centering of subsurface warm pool. This is healthy and should make it to the eastern longitude by late May, probably associated with North Pacific trough and +PNA pattern last week of May. Next 2 weeks, weak -PNA probably.

This is a good thread. Clouds are so different now. I remember large cumulonimbus in the 1990s here in Maryland. Even on Sunny Sunday's it was a sky full of fluffy cumulus 80% of the time. Now it's these wispy clouds, saturated raindroplets. Someone said the earth has more water/ice now, but I think there is less rainfall.

Not really close. For the eye to pick up 50-200 unique strands on a single bolt is pretty incredible imo. If you want to talk, these are just averages. The real story is the temporary balance (in high-low pressure?) the storm caused.