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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You can pretty much guarantee the AMO will be rising for the next few months. With a continued strong Atlantic ridge, expected cold thunderstorm activity through the Summer.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty cool, I'd put a watch there too. It's not going to develop though. Global warming, that's why. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northrockies_loop.php
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can see more evenening out of the 2013-2016 El Nino. There's probably a really strong El Nino coming up in the next 10 years.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. SOI is also up since 1998.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If it stays at +Neutral/weak El Nino range, A lot more options globally, where I think a stronger Nino would have narrowed it down quite a bit in this post-2013 pattern.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Atlantic SSTs are cold, El Nino conditions since April, basically really above average precip. I'm just pointing out a pretty significant pattern change.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Furthermore, this subsurface warmth building in the west (~140E) is a sea-saw to La Nina conditions in time. (I cant get it to animate.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check it out, I wonder what's going on? This is last year-like and a definite trend in the last few days.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Trending away from El Nino
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So this cold pool around -200m may stop the El Nino altogether
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS ensembles are trending more northern-US ridge, constant above average. Maybe a derecho setup down the line. It's kind of trending away from El Nino.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Moderate is possible. Subsurface warmth is backbuilding west now.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Long term GFS ensembles even have a +PNA so..
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's a saturated airmass. The tropical Atlantic ridge goes much further west.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking really good for Winter. Weak El Nino and huge bias for Hudson Bay-south trough/+PNA/-EPO pattern right now, the Summer through...
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What an awful year for storms. The worst, probably ever. The air has this constant ice-cube-like tint. Call it natural or whatever, I think it's a reason for the clouds.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Updating my prediction to Weak El Nino peak. The cold in the subsurface near 180 degrees is concerning for stronger than +0.8 ONI trimonthly high.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Check out this strong +PNA which you usually don't see in La Nina, 52-46-2 (Nino-Neutral-Nina). Then the NAO is positive and this whole evolution is really developing-El Nino-like http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It goes something like every event that has broke in June-July peaks in October-November or later. Subsurface looks like a 2 month warming at least.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The upper midwest one's aren't that impressive. -50 in Chicago? Big deal. I bet the further south has some better extremes. I bet the western 1/3 of the country has some better extremes.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, not a big deal. More -PNA duality than anything else. Surface SST trend doesn't necessarily correlate to North Pacific +PNA, although sometimes shown on models. Easy 3-5 day bias-correction I think
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    There's been two substantial anomalies in April and May. On Feb 21, 2018 when Washington DC had 500mb heights of 591dm, breaking its old record of 583, there was a major PV in this area.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Hadley Cell Atlantic, Hadley Cell Pacific
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of water in the Hemisphere right now
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