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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Last year at this time was actually more of a developing El Nino than this year
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface warm pool is now weakening. It will probably peak at the surface for another 1-2 weeks, but we look to be heading straight toward Neutral/Weak Nino.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like, on the 18z GFS, that the subsurface wave is still going strong Day 15+.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's the lowest 5-month SOI since 1997. That was February. We could easily break 1982 and 1997 SOI-wise if the El Nino strengthens in the Spring. Check out the Indian Ocean signal.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really solid El Nino developing now.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We might be going into a 2-year Nino.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks, as per subsurface, that the event will peak in April.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The way this +PNA is unfolding with the developing Kelvin wave makes me think this will not rush into Strong territory. It's a NorthPacific-ENSO even signal if that makes any sense. Weak-Moderate continuation, although something may happen in the Fall. (The point is, we are probably staying below 1982,1997) Edit: ie, in strong events you would usually see the NOI bottoming right now, and a off the west-coast or GOA trough.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    They are saying the same thing in central/south Europe.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Something people don't really know.. 1965-1966 was a Strong Nino that peaked in the Fall. 2.0, 2.0, 1.7, then 1.4 djf. This was a -PNA Just like this year. We are peaking on the other end of the seasonal scale.. El Nino likely to continue.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface continues to lead surface significantly so. Check out the western subsurface leading up to the 2015 El Nino. We seem to be doing it again.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty cool.. I posted earlier that there is an inverse correlation between February SOI and the next years ENSO state. AAM is something like rotational speed of the Earth, faster in El Nino, slower in La Nina. AAM can been in 500mb heights as this: Febuary 15-28 2019 has been -AAM (what you usually see in La Nina) Check out these strong El Nino developing analogs and what happened Feb 15-28 AAM-wise. All were -AAM.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The North Pacific is not acting like El Nino at all despite El Nino conditions in the subsurface.. this was completely different,connected until about 6-9 months ago.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty significant.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA, you don't see this in El Nino, but Neutral. You do see this N Pacific pattern in El Nino. It will be interesting to see if a new Kelvin Wave develops in 10-15 days.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I posted this before, February SOI actually has an inverse correlation to the next years ENSO state.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ^ I also got the warm SE Canada signal in analogs using -PNA/El Nino conditions. The subsurface is still Weak El Nino but the globe is no longer +AAM.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprising, they are probably going with re-development.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of convection over ENSO. This is actually the strongest El Nino-OLR push of the entire El Nino event. Second strongest +subsurface wave, only October was greater. I'm surprised the Pacific is so -PNA right now.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It will be hard to do La Nina. The Earths pattern is in opposite, rotational speed index I call it. El Nino or Neutral.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd still call it an El Nino.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to have a -PNA in El Nino like this, although it can happen like in 65-66. I think it speaks volumes about the long term PDO state and longer term ENSO state, which is probably closer to 0.0 vs the global average of +0.3. Subsurface trends continue to suggest that this is a Weak-Moderate El Nino (although subsurface looks weak now I think that is because of SOI/MJO, which cuts into but is not necessarily the predominant state).
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you look at subsurface data, one could argue 95-96 was Neutral.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The only way this can really develop in El Nino (north pacific ridge) is with a cooling trend in the subsurface.. increases chances of transition to Neutral/La Nina
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