Upstate Tiger

Looking like end of the month before any real chance of rain and even then it’s not a given.

I am sure many of you have already seen this report. I did not read it until this morning. Those rainfall totals are absolutely insane. The wind gusts were also bad for such a large area. https://www.wyff4.com/article/hurricane-helene-final-report-released-damage-deaths/64240516

7 of the next 10 days here forecast to have lows in the 30s. Just spring in the South. Will be begging for these cool days in a couple of months.

Yep. Been waiting on this March warmup but it's been a roller coaster at best and seems a lot more cool than warm. Not good for my new grass.

Visiting family in the upstate of SC today. Sun broke through about 30 minutes ago and it’s feeling juicy out.

Hope we get the rain but the severe can stay away

About as ominous as you will get from GSP this far out... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS with a 973MB bomb over the Midwest this weekend. That'll create some wind and some weather headlines. Edmond Fitzgerald storm was a 978.

Yes. That’s the point. Most of the big dogs I recall happened after a warm or mild spell, especially Feb or March. The Holy Grail March in the early 60s would certainly be an exception.

I’m ok if there’s no more winter weather. We had 3 minor events IMBY and we were in the mountains for an event. Plus it’s been cold since December. Need warm weather for the fairways to green up. However, keep in mind that major winter storms in the SE don’t usually occur in the middle of cold outbreaks. PD 1 it was 70 degrees one day before the storm. PD 2 it was 75 degrees on the Saturday before the big storm on Sunday Superstorm 93 it was in the 70s all week before. March 1, 1980 it was in the 60s most of the week. etc.

Since we have missed out on a big dog, would love to see one good area wide storm during this time frame, then I will be ready for spring. My fear is when it warms up, we will get dry.

On my way from Gastonia to Belmont and I 85 getting snow covered in the center lanes. Shoulders white.

Nice little dusting this morning in West Lincoln and still coming down. 28 degrees

I am looking for a March 93 re deaux during this time frame. Of course it will have to overcome... March sun angle - strong enought to melt glass Soil Temps - like lava Dry slot - like the parting of the Red Sea Gulf of America thunderstorms - they will have to evacuate oil rigs Warm nose - mid levels hotter than Chernobyl

Coming down good in West Lincoln.

NAM was better again for most of the state.

Would love to be posting on the obs board Thursday morning this same thing

GFS looked good for most of NC. Even some snow in northern GA and the upstate.

GSP mentioned this afternoon that climatologically freezing rain is typically not widespread with a Miller A.

Disappointing Euro run considering other model trends.

GFS definitely gives some hope to the I 85 crowd. Let's see where the trends take us today.

Noticed on the last GFS and latest NAM snow bands building on the backside. Be something to watch as energy drops in on the backside.

Looking at the 18z GFS, that’s a text book Miller A track. Best set up we’ve had in a long time.

Maybe North Hills should change this thread to Wednesday Morning Minor Event. Sometimes you have to challenge the narrative for change to occur.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off