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wxmeddler

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. The H5 over upper midwest has been sheared out into a big + tilt trough, not what we're looking for.
  2. More positively tilted and a bit of a wave disconnect in over the northern GL's at 90 hrs.
  3. 18z Euro Ensemble has some members with a tucked in surface low close to the coast at h120. Waiting on graphics.
  4. 1-3... "hmm" or "hey" Otherwise this is solid. 10+ for FOLKS seems like a decent threshold.
  5. It's a tad bit more progressive than 12z but it still is a major hit.
  6. I have to say I’m a bit disappointed in the flake quality. Not nearly supersaturated enough upstairs to get the dendritic growth. This is mostly looking like plates. The kuchera stan’s are gonna get a surprise when they stick their ruler in for this part of the storm. 8:1 to 11:1 Edit: It should get better when we get to the firehose stage of the storm in 4-6hrs from now.
  7. Everything south of I-70 should get flakes in the next 20-30 min.
  8. A bit of a radar artifact. There is the main snow push coming through S NoVA and Charles/St.Mary's county, then a band developing in a line from about Point of Rocks to BWI. That band has not quite made it to the surface yet as LWX radar would have you think. BWI is still reporting 30/8 with 3800ft ceilings.
  9. This is why looking at "1km simulated reflectivity" for a start time is a bad idea. Gotta look at 1-hr QPF. We're still on track.
  10. Yes, please and thank you... 2 GFS slam dunks in a row.
  11. lol, that's always been there, it's fine. Its beam blockage of the radar itself from Bull Run Mountain.
  12. Manassas airport reporting -SN
  13. That's an all-timer WSW for St.Mary's county.
  14. We're getting there. DCA TDWR is showing under 5000 now. Should start to see reports of flakes from south to north starting with Manassas, Woodbridge etc. soon.
  15. The 1/3rd rule is actually pretty darn accurate. Wetbulb = Temp*.66 + DewPt*.33 is scary good for how simple it is.
  16. Not that I've heard of! They rise pretty quickly. They're made mostly out of styrofoam. At Sterling, they call the Dulles tower to let them know they're releasing them.
  17. It's launched from the weather service office just outside of Dulles. They launch at 0z (7pm) and 12z (7am) daily.
  18. Donut is holding around 6000ft...
  19. Correct. The models had this pretty well outlayed. Euro especially. Those wishing for a 9pm start time were in for a disappointment. Totally agree on the cold to start! Rather have instant stickage than waiting for rates to overcome.
  20. 0z balloon from Sterling shows very dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. It will take awhile for those snowflakes to make it to the surface. Talking hours.
  21. 0z sounding out of Baltimore ()Morgan State Univ) for CoURAGE
  22. Nothing like flashing a new operating system to a dead snow depth sensor on a sunday afternoon before a pasting.
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