hawkeye_wx

Rita sub-900mb.

Almost there....

It has been a long time since we've seen a sub-900mb Atlantic storm. I think this one will come up just short.

With the CDO becoming so thick and uniform, ideal for an outer band to form and contract, an eyewall replacement cycle can't be too far away.

I will go with 916 mb, 140 kts.

Yep, the satellite presentation is improving rapidly this evening from the high level it already was. Recon should be there in a couple hours.

Eta continues to strengthen. Even colder tops are uniformly wrapping around the warming eye. I'm not even sure what pressure recon is going to find. 930 something maybe?

Clearly at its peak right now. Also, the recon plane is back up in the air and headed south over the gulf.

Today's recon planes were not going to tell us much we don't already know. No lives in Nicaragua will be saved/lost because recon finds, or doesn't find, the exact pressure. It's just a major bummer, as weather/science geeks, we aren't getting the exact details for one of the two best storms of the year, especially one with a pinhole eye that makes it more difficult to guess the exact strength. This latest recon, which flew into the gulf but then turned around, would have been into the storm this evening during peak intensity.

The clouds filling the eye was temporary. Eta now looks about as good as it ever has.

You've gotta be f'ing kidding me. The recon plane just turned around and is heading back to the US.

Some models have shown a south dive and stall, or even a lift back north a hair, before once again turning west into Central America.

The eye is filling with clouds.

The next scheduled recon flight on today's list has a takeoff time of 1945z. Maybe this plane can get off the ground.

Once again, the Euro re-develops Eta in the nw Caribbean and turns it east, then slams on the breaks, bombs it out, and tracks it n/nw through the Caymans.

Satellite shows new clearing of the tiny eye over the last 30 minutes. We need a recon in there. Why can't they just send a different plane in there?

NHC is going with 120 mph, 957 mb at 1pm.

Over the last 30+ minutes, the 1-minute meso loop is showing eye shrinkage and even colder tops immediately surrounding the eye.

Apparently, the midday recon got canceled as well. The schedule had it in the storm late this morning. Ugh.

I think the NHC recon schedule says the new plane would leave around 15z, but it is now 16z and Tropical Tidbits has no new recon listed.

A satellite page I like to use is COD (College of Dupage). Their non-meso loops are every 5 minutes and update to within 5 minutes of real time. Their meso loop is 1 minute and updates to within 1 minute of real time. Tropical Tidbits has more of a delay. COD meso satellite loop

The 1-minute meso satellite for Eta is back.

Someone at NOAA just bleeping removed Eta from the 1-minute meso satellite loops. They need to get it back ASAP.

Estimated 10 mb drop in 2 1/2 hours.

This thing really appears to be bombing.