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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    I was in the screw zone for weeks, but I've been hit good three times in the last four days. I picked up another 1.07" this evening. The first line crapped out and dropped very little, but the second line really came through. Previous 7 weeks: 0.98" Last four days: 2.75" I could not have asked for more out of this pattern. My luck has flipped hard. Let's keep this going.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    There is no wind with this second line, just very heavy rain with some lightning/thunder (first line had none).
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Nice little bow moving into Cedar Rapids. The shelf cloud was pretty nice.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    It's very gusty behind the outflow boundary, but the storms are bit bubbly moving into CR.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    So the Euro has gone from Mexico to Texas and now Louisiana.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Iowa's sloppy seconds for the win again.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    A nice line of storms sank southeast through eastern Iowa this morning. The rain rate wasn't super heavy, perhaps because it wasn't particularly warm and humid, but ninety minutes of steady to occasionally heavy rain dumped 1.13" on my yard. The driest part of the area got the most rain, so it worked out perfectly. Now we just need a few more of these south-sinking lines this week. It's possible the building heat could keep everything north.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    17" of rain is insane. In my lifetime I think about 7" is the most Cedar Rapids has received (and that was at least several hours). It has been thirteen years since our last 5" rain.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    The latest recon dropsonde measured 988 mb, so no change. Maybe the new convective blowup can get the pressure down a couple mb.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    Officially 988 mb, per dropsonde.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show a tropical cyclone in the western gulf at the end of the month. That's pretty good agreement considering it's still over a week out.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Ironically, just as they upgrade it to hurricane the core convection craps out.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    The storms dropped 0.56" of rain here overnight. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal, but I haven't had a solid rain like this since June.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Dropsonde says 996 mb with 31 kt wind, so ~993 mb.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    The deep convection is still firing well southeast of the center. Recon just fixed the center near 31.5N 74W, at the nw edge of the cirrus canopy.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    One final recon plane is now en route.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    The 12z HWRF never drops Henri below the 980s. A few to several runs ago it was taking it down to the 960s, 950s, or even 940s. It was never going to drop that low, but the HWRF is oddly now among the weakest models.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    980 mb, should be final recon pass for now. I'm not sure they'll even send another plane down there given how close it is to landfall.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Per recon, definitely a hurricane again... 983 mb 92 kts flight level wind
  21. hawkeye_wx
    A couple things I noticed on today's models... First, the UK initializes Henri too strong (low to mid 980s). Second, while the Euro initializes it pretty well, it then weakens it as it heads north. That is odd considering the rest of the models strengthen it during the same period.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    So far, today, every attempt to fire core convection has poofed out rather quickly. Dry air appears to be a problem.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    The latest GFS does bend Henri back into the NYC area, but during its last day over water it is rapidly weakening.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    The intense blowup of convection over the center quickly knocked the pressure down several mb first thing this morning, but the core convection has waned since then and the pressure has plateaued. The overall organization continues to improve, though. At some point today or tonight we should see more intense convection fire over the center again.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    Grace had been gradually building the east side all night, but this morning it has finally been able to pull that deep convection over the center. It'll be interesting to see what it can do before it reaches Cancun/Cozumel.
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