mahantango#1

From DT: THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere. The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest. Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

Same amount of rain here .14

Looks like between 2-4 inches of the snow, ice pack left on the ground (at my place) to melt this week. The snow piles...thats a different story.

Please no more 20 to 50mph winds.

Congrats on this astounding snow victory!

If I look closely I can see it snowed on the exposed grass in the yard that I shoveled from the January snowstorm. On to the next threat of snow.

Wet snow here and 34 degrees.

Rain here.

Enjoy your prep mixture. Too bad they don't recommend mixing it with vodka, or some other kind of alcohol. That would make the experience better when your shitfaced getting to the bathroom.

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

from NWS this morning: The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing, elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute impacts.

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

Is there any other model support for Sunday? We need an February 1983 repeat

NWS kept updating the amounts during the storm.

I think Harrisburg had that too if my memory serves me correct.

I remember this storm very well. Original forecast was 1-3 than 2-4 till it was all set an done i received 18 inches. I think Harrisburg got 24 inches. There was Thunder and lightning during the storm. February 10-12th, 1983: Called the “Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm,” this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall of up to 25 inches fell in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities.

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine

Wind now gusting to 34mph.

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.