mahantango#1

From our good friend DT: NEXT TIME SOME IDIOT ARGUES THE GFS HANDLES EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS WELL... TIME TO CANCEL THE GFS..... 33 INCHES OF SNOW DC ? Yeah its broken every Single run of the operational GFS for the past 3 days has showed a massive historic record shattering blizzard for some portion of the Middle Atlantic... now even the GFS AI is saying "WTF op-GFS !? " The 6z and 12z GFS ensembles are waaaaaay east The problem is that the operational GFS goes Bonkers with the 500mb LOW. It is over developing the 500 LOW amplification and it grabs the surface LOW and pulls a NW to just east of Wallops Island on the lower Virginia Eastern shore. Then every run of op- GFS stalls the LOW for 24 hours producing this incredibly heavy snow area from a monster rapidly intensifying Coastal nor'easter. This is nonsense. There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night or Monday morning then this solution as proposed by the operational GFS of a massive historic BLIZZARD of record shattering proportions in the Mid-Atlantic actually concurring As I stated in the video there is an upstream kicker and all the other models see it except for the operational GFS. When the GFS AI and GFS ensembles don't even support this kind of extreme solution then you know the operational GFS is just busted. I figure it's about 12 hours before somebody starts blaming immigrants for fucking with the model.

Capital Weather Gang: We're going to get out ahead of this because we know we'll get questions. No, we do not believe the GFS (American) model (just in), which shows 3 feet of snow for DC Sunday-Monday. It is ranked 4th for accuracy for a reason + not supported by other models which generally show a modest event. We'll post our analysis of what's most likely early afternoon today. Posted 11a Thursday.

We need that come up about 60 miles north and west!

Maybe we should start raising the flag with the fork on it. Quite a few letdowns again this winter.

And it again it's been cloudy for awhile.

From DT: and his video about 25 min ago he's still calling bull on the gfs. Yes I saw the 18z wed op GFS . There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night then that model verifying.

From DT: THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere. The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest. Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

Same amount of rain here .14

Looks like between 2-4 inches of the snow, ice pack left on the ground (at my place) to melt this week. The snow piles...thats a different story.

Please no more 20 to 50mph winds.

Congrats on this astounding snow victory!

If I look closely I can see it snowed on the exposed grass in the yard that I shoveled from the January snowstorm. On to the next threat of snow.

Wet snow here and 34 degrees.

Rain here.

Enjoy your prep mixture. Too bad they don't recommend mixing it with vodka, or some other kind of alcohol. That would make the experience better when your shitfaced getting to the bathroom.

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

from NWS this morning: The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing, elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute impacts.

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

Is there any other model support for Sunday? We need an February 1983 repeat