mahantango#1

If i read it right JB is going with 10-15 for Harrisburg. He said if he has to change anything it will be Thursday.

From SS STORM CHASE AND FORECAST WE ARE GETTING VERY CONCERNED!!!! DANGEROUS TEMPS / HEAVY SNOW STRONG WINDS / BIG SNOW DRIFTS ***READ THE POST!!!!!!! PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS UPDATE…. FIRST, IT’S STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN, HOWEVER….. 4-5 DAYS IS NOT THAT LONG TO PREPARE FOR A LARGE STORM. ———-Update 2PM 1/20———- FIRST, A FEW KEY POINTS….. 1. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS & WIDESPREAD STORM ON MODELS. 2. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A MAJOR SNOW STORM BIGGER THAN ANYTHING IN THE PAST 8-10 YEARS OR SO (FOR HERE) FOR THE AREA. 3. TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. HIGHS 12-15° With LOWS 1-3° AND WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. 4. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAKES POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS WILL BE A POWDERY LIGHT SNOW BUT THEN WE DEAL WITH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS. 6. LONG DURATION EVENT OF 24-48 HOURS IS EXPECTED. 7. WIDESPREAD EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST TO TN, NC, KY, OH, WVA, VA, MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, NYC, RI, MA, VT, and Vicinity. 8. AMOUNTS ON MOST MODELS ARE BETWEEN 10-20” with a few models showing Highest totals up to 28” for the Mid Atlantic! **VERY CONCERNED** This is not to cause fear or to hype the event, however, we must make everyone aware that this is an extremely dangerous storm system if it does indeed happen as currently model. It is absolutely possible that it does NOT happen. However, most models show that a major snowstorm is likely to occur starting SUNDAY morning and LASTING into Monday afternoon or evening. (Tuesday for the NE) We will be monitoring this extremely closely, however, in addition to 1 to 2 FEET of snow we must keep in mind that WINDS will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 in addition to DANGEROUSLY COLD temperatures WHICH we have not seen in MANY MANY YEARS. **WARNING** **PLAN NOW** **BUT KNOW WEATHER CHANGES** Those that have animals outside such as horses or livestock or those that work outside with people such as housing the homeless and making arrangements for people that are outside NEED to take necessary action now to protect life and property. **BE SMART ABOUT PLANNING AND REMEMBER THIS IS STILL 4-5 days OUT AND MIGHT NOT HAPPEN!!! Again, We want to be very clear that this may not happen, however, much of CURRENT guidance IS IN agreement that a dangerous storm MAY occur and affect MUCH of the Midwest and Eastern United States from North Carolina North to Massachusetts and everyone in between. We STRONGLY ADVISE everyone to stay weather alert, and monitor MULTIPLE outlets so you can monitor any changes that may occur with this storm system. ***PLAN DON’T PANIC*** THE INFORMATION ABOVE IS BASED OFF OF VERY CURRENT FRESH MODEL DATA (12Z) 1/20/26 AS WELL AS PAST MODEL DATA AGREEMENT. EVEN IF THE STORMS ADJUST SOME IN TRACK, IT IS SUCH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WHILE IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEATHER CAN CHANGE AND THE STORM COULD MISS US. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY RIGHT NOW THAT THAT HAPPENS AND WE RECOMMEND MAKING PLANS NOW IN CASE THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. THIS WOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AND RAIN SNOW LINE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. Always REFRESH and check the page for new updates and get the NEWEST and latest information on track and strength changes. This is current as of 2PM Tuesday 1/20/26. **BELOW is the VERY ACCURATE EURO MODEL*** (12Z)

DT: ✳️ CRITICAL UPDATE ON JAN 24-25 EVENT-- and the Tuesday 12z OP- GFS MODEL RUN... ✳️ ...... For the love of God will somebody please fix this appallingly bad model?... The Tuesday 12z GFS / GFS AI model again for some reason sinks the whole system southward -- to the point where gotten to the point of almost no snow in DC to NYC . I have said this before many times--the GFS model is trash for East Coast winter storms beyond 78 hrs . It always over does the cold air, shows suppressed system and always has storms move off the coast. Then once are within 72 hrs we see the pathetic .., " IT IS TRENDING NORTH !!!... I can pull up the GFS Models runs from days before January 2016 ... February 2014 ... December 2009 ... February 2010 ... 9 December 2018 .... and time after time after time the GFS model ALWAYS does this. ▶️PROOF? the 12Z Tuesday OP GFS & GFs AI models dont match its own ensembles. ◀️ Look I know there are folks out there that think I take the giant dump on the GFS model for with East Coast winter storms for no reason or because I simply don't like the solution. Well I don't live in Washington DC or Baltimore Philly so it this has nothing to do with what I want. It is a bad model Beyond 78 hours when it comes to East Coast winter storms. Always has been and then probably always will be. ⚠️ Finally the crappy GFS model actually INCREASE uncertainty especially for meteorologists that don't look at ensembles or people who are just weather presenters. ⚠️ You have one solution of 12 inches and then another model which gives a solution of under 2 inches. This sort of ridiculous variance is useless in forecasting. I mean what's the weather forecast going to be? ....Partly cloudy chance of snow with accumulations between 0 to 12 inches?... #Winter2026 #SnowLovers #MidSouthWeather #SoutheastWeather #MidwestWeather #EastCoastWeather #Snowfall #IceStorm #Snowstorm #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #mass #ctwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #indwx #kywx #tnwx

Sleepless nights are certain for the rest of this week.

another good video. there are a lot of answers to be determined yet https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013605353305317530?s=20

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

Last nights northern lights.

I think You need to cut your vacation short and head home immediately to potentially enjoy the festivities that mother nature could provide.

4 this morning.

We can't shovel potential and probability, only the real deal can be shoveled. but we'll take this at this point.

DT-WxRisk ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ Follow 0Z TUES UKMET/ EURO ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL MAPS: these maps are based on 10 to 1 snow ratios. Jan 24-25 will see arctic air in Mid Atlantic/ TN valley so these snow maps could be UNDERDONE #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #kywx #tnwx 4:49 AM · Jan 20, 2026 Everybody can reply 1 repost 11 likes 1 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 55m 1 Join the conversation Create account

U gotta watch the video on the upcoming storm. I think he did a great analysis of the storm.

Great video presentation on the coming storm https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013290491517743459?s=20

From our great friend DT: THIS IS IMPORTANT --like REALLY fooking important. The amount of snow that the models are producing for this weekend JAN 24-25 in MD VA DEL WV and KY...and the historic severe ice storm that threatens the Carolinas Is mind-boggling. As I have said many times before over the past 30 years - really since the arrival of the European model- every major East Coast snowstorm was detected days in advance as a serious threat. Even more stunning is the amount of severe cold that comes in behind the storm. With the fresh cold deep snowpack across the southern Mid-Atlantic and KY the Monday AM ( 0z) European model is actually showing MIN temperatures in the period January 26-28 well below zero --even in Richmond and Washington DC and into NW North Carolina. Just mind boggling. The event begins Saturday which is now only essentially 5 days away because after all we have to get the forecast out by Thursday and Thursday night. !!! There is still of course some variation here. it could shift for the North and which case we would see heavy snow going over to a major ice storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the major snowfall would get into Philly New York and Southern New England.. But due to the nature of the upper air pattern that seems unlikely. I will be doing be video updates every days ...maybe 2x a day ...starting this evening and of course there is the NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter. As the new models come out and new data comes out I will be updating frequently over on my BLUESKY. I may make some posts over on Twitter but Twitter as you probably know is overrun with Bots and fake accounts and it's become just a monster shit show. DT:

Or tomorrow too.

Enjoy those frosty temps.

Wxrisk.com · Shared with Public TIME TO START TO TALK ABOUIT JAN 25 NEXT WEEKEND In January 5-6 edition of the NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter I discussed three possible East Coast winter storm threats (THREATS= chances) JAN 15-16… JAN 18- 19… JAN 23-25. And I stated SEVERAL times in those newsletters and on the videos that the problem with the first two events was that the MJO was going to be either Phase 6 or Phase 7 and that's not good for East Coast snowstorms. (January / PHASE 6 / La Nina 500mb pattern = VERY unfavorable. The one I was really focused on was Third possibility or threat around January 23-25. But that was based on the hope or belief that MJO will be moving either from Phase 7 into Phase 8 or in Phase 8. Based upon all the current data that appears to be exactly what is happening. IMAGE 1 is the snowstorm Bible. It is a 2 Volume study produced bn the AMS written by snowstorm specialists Paul Kocin and Dr Lewis Uccellini. It covers 33 major East Coast snowstorms since 1950… up through 2005 . Obviously there have been several winter storms since then so at some point the book may be upgraded again. In studying East Coast snow storms you learn a few things. One is that the vast majority 25 of the 33 occur when the MJO is in Phase 8 or 1 with some East Coast snowstorms occurring in Phase 2 or Phase 7. Second things about Big East Coast sno storms is that happen when the normal jet stream pattern across North America is disrupted by strong blocking in Greenland or having a giant ocean low that is over Southeastern Canada such as Nova Scotia or Newfoundland AND by having Arctic air Displaced out of Canada deeper into the US. As you may know right now, most of the eastern CONUS are experiencing drought conditions. Even though the winter has been cold y east of the Mississippi River and on the East Coast in particular… it has been extremely dry. This is due in part to La Nina. However, with La Nina weakening the strongly indicates the MJO to move into phase 8 in late January and a good portion of February and then moving to Phase 1 IN he second half of February. SEE IMAGE #2 Does this guarantee a snowstorm for the East Coast? no of course not . Does it increase the probability ? Yes it does. TOO MUCH COLD AIR ? Yes of course that is a problem during the winter season. A lot of people get really excited about big arctic outbreaks and they are important since they can cause heating bills to rise, disrupt plans, shut down schools, and cause all sorts of infrastructure problems. But having a persistently cold pattern with the Arctic air pouring out of Canada -- essentially a dominating Northern jet stream pattern = cold and dry. In short a pattern which does not produce East Coast snow storms. If you are a long-term follower WXRISK then you know I said for many years and in many videos that *** SPLIT FLOW WEATHER PATTERN ** are really good for the East Coast In terms of producing significant winter weather. Of ourse this depends on some Arctic air just not too much. Having buckets of art of gear pouring out of western Canada doesn't do anything except make the pattern cold and dry.. IMAGE 3 is the 500mb European model valid for Friday January 23rd. It is an extremely impressive winter storm pattern for the East Coast. The Polar Vortex is located just north of the Great Lakes which is extremely far south. But more importantly the jet stream pattern has split. The key to this event occurring is going to be the UPPER LOW off the southern CALF coast and how it interacts with the Polar Vortex in the northern Jet Stream as it comes East and tracks across Texas and the Gulf Coast. IMAGE 4 = shows the early morning European model from Sunday and then the new afternoon run (0z and 12Z) . The early morning Sunday European model suggests that the southern CALIF LOW is going to come far enough north to drive warm air into the middle levels of the atmosphere. If so then the Mid-Atlantic would be hit by is a long duration serious heavy ice storm with significant power outages and all sorts of infrastructure problems with heavy snow OH PA NY New England . The 12z Sunday afternoon European has a major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic because California LOW tracks for the South. The LOW tracks further south because the Polar Vortex is stronger and bigger. SUMMARY January 25 event was one of the three events I talked about in early January that would occur this month. The first two were misses and did not really happen as I thought. This one -JAN 25- however has a better chance because of the MJO going into the favorable phase 8. And the development of a split flow pattern. Right now all I will say is that the pattern looks really great for next weekend for some kind of significant winter weather in the Ohio Valley the Mid-Atlantic and New England. But that is s all I am saying. It could be snow… it could be ice …it could be a combination. 3 KEYS The MJO has to go into phase 8. The pattern has to develop a split flow on the west coast of North America. The Arctic air has to be in place across the Great Lakes in New England but not too much are together to push everything to the South and crush the southern system

Gonna be brutal if you have to be outside for any length of time tomorrow night.

Wow I just looked at my temperature it's 8 outside @10:15pm. Didn't think it would get that cold tonight.

JB said he expects a phasing event next weekend. Something going up west of the mountains and a secondary on the coast.

On my phone.

pics from this morning.

I wonder with the last 2 snows if we get a big snowstorm if it will run along the boundary that these 2 set up?

Looks like 2 in of a wet snow, beautiful landscape this morning!