mahantango#1

.DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday over practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania. Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure rapidly developing off the east coast today as a very dynamic upper trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies across the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The latest 00z Sunday guidance continues to come into good agreement on the position and strength of the coastal low as it strengthens/bombs out as its heads from the Outer Banks late this morning NNE to about 125NM east of KSBY this evening. GEFS Ensemble Plumes and their respective anomalies of various parameters show a well-defined inverted trough over Central PA today, extending NWWD from the aforementieond coastal low. This trough is at the western edge of a highly anomalous East to NErly LLJ (falling into the minus 4-5 sigma u-component of the wind at 925 and 850 mb). Increasing upper level diffluence ahead of the digging upper trough will support gradual enhancement of snowfall rates across all of Central PA today with snowfall rates within these quasi north/south bands of snow exceeding 1 inch per hour (possibly over 2 inches at times in heavy CSI bands across our far eastern CWA. A complicating feature that will enhance and extend significant impacts from this storm will be the increasingly strong NNE to NNW wind - that will gust over 30 mph tonight (and likely over 40 mph) on Monday. This will lead to significant/extensive blowing and drifting snow with localized near whiteout conditions possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with expected snowfall over the rest of northern PA. Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over the rest of North-Central, NW PA and the Middle Susq Valley considering the likelihood for a quasi-stationary nearly north/south band of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more) along the axis of an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of the lower/deeper DGZ that will be situated from the Scent Mtns to somewhere between KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday afternoon/Sunday night. A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall forecast: * As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding will likely set up just east of the CWA, but could still develop across parts of our central and eastern zones. * Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals on either side of the band.

Heard the geese last night around 11pm sounds like they were headed north. So the signs of spring are starting to show.

If it keeps snowing like it is now till tomorrow morning, we won't have anything to worry about. Seems where i'm located at I might be in the screw zone. Even though I'm technically in the WSW.

I guess I woke the forum up.

SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites ·tdronesopSlagahm882fm0tmtft318hh1f1l78m7a0g3t720368f826ci8f6 · LATE SEASON WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR AREA !!! **ANY CHANGES IN TRACK WILL AFFECT TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY. **WE WONT KNOW THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. Just a few REMINDERS! @8 AM Blizzard Warning For PHILLY AREA was added overnight! Keep in mind these few key points….. 1. Precipitation will start this morning for many as light Rain or Rain/Snow. THIS IS AND WAS EXPECTED! 2. STORM will not be very impressive until LATE afternoon or evening around 3-6 PM. Once the sun goes down the coastal storm will gets its act together and rapidly strengthen. This will allow precipitation to get thrown our way from the ocean and that’s when accumulating SNOW will begin to pile up. Best time for accumulation snow to fall will be OVERNIGHT tonight into Monday. 3. **REMEMBER** A slight change in track can make BIG changes in totals. A more WEST track would give us higher snow totals AND a track even SLIGHTLY EAST would LOWER totals. LET THE EVENT PLAY OUT!! ***This storm will take time to get organized and cranking. Be patient and LET THINGS PLAY OUT! It will be SLOW GOING until AFTER SUNSET. We are watching and waiting! A STORM THIS SIZE DOES WHAT IT WANTS! Stay Tuned! we Will update throughout the day!!!! (AS NECESSARY) Please consider donating to our Coffee And Food Fund! We are Exhausted but we will keep going and keep you SAFE! We truly appreciate your support! Please Copy And Paste Our Name to avoid copy cat accounts! Venmo: @ssstormchasingllc CashApp: $SSSTORMTEAM GOD BLESS AND STAY TUNED Enjoy The EARLY MORNING SHORT RANGE SHREF MODEL! #TeamSS-LLC-2026

The forum would surely wake up when you start talking about 90 degree heat and 77 degree dewpoints and aa heat index of 115.

Down to 27 here.

I'm located in Northern Dauphin County. I can throw a stone across the creek into Northumberland county. Yea all these forecasts are all over the place.

All this talk of snow. My NWS forecast has not changed even with the WSW it's still saying 2-4.

Good ole SS: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites ·onSstdepro818titci105u1hilut7tiam0i2h476l7958090t018762f3htt · READ THE ENTIRE UPDATE!!! *THIS COULD BE A BLIZZARD *OR* THIS MAY ONLY BE A FEW INCHES. ***WE DON’T KNOW JUST YET*** ————————————————- **STORM MODE ACTIVATED** ————————————————- **THIS FORECAST COULD EASILY CHANGE TODAY** STAY TUNED!!! ————————————————- **WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW THE TRACK DUE TO MODEL SPREAD! ————————————————- PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST! ————————————————- STARTING: SUNDAY DAYBREAK ENDING: MONDAY DAYBREAK (HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY) ————————————————- WHAT: VERY HEAVY WET SNOW! AMOUNTS: 6”-30” Depending on your location and the track of storm. Areas along 83 may see close to a FOOT while areas WEST of 83 may only see 4-8”. Areas near I-95 may see 2-3 FEET (Maybe More). Highest amounts of 2-3 Feet will likely be near the coast! If the storm shifts east heavy snow will move out over the ocean. If it shifts west heavy snow will move over Central Pennsylvania. There are so many variables and we do not know. —————————————————- WE BELIEVE MANY PEOPLE FROM 83 AND POINTS EAST will “LIKELY” see significant WET snow! HOWEVER that’s NOT a guarantee! **Models are all over the place!!!** Look at these models and you will understand. THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD in totals and not much model agreement. There’s ALSO TIME today for TRACK changes to happen. We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 24 feet of snow!- This storm is so big and powerful it will wobble and just a slight wobble WEST will SHIFT huge totals over SCPA. YES THAT IS A POSSIBILITY!!! BUT, we don’t know and likely WONT KNOW until the event is happening!!! WE STRONGLY SUGGEST GETTING SOME GROCERIES AND SUPPLIES IF YOU ARE NEAR 83 & POINTS EAST!! You may not need them but time is running out and it’s better to be prepared and not need it !!! We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 2-4 feet of snow! BUT WHERE???? Even if you only get 6 inches of snow, it’s going to be a very heavy wet snow and extremely hard to shovel. Just imagine if the storm shifts and you get 12 to 20 inches of snow? With this being a very heavy snow that changes things significantly. Please be prepared for that and even possible power outages. There are lots of possibilities with this storm and we just do not know where exactly things will be the worst. We are monitoring and we will do our best to sort through the data, but it may be a storm that we have to just watch and report on in real time. Stay Tuned For More Updates!

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 28m I do not believe there will be any shifting east of the modeling.The storm track is LOCKED IN.The only remaining question is how quickly the upper low strengthens. This impacts the DCA to PHL to eastern MD zone. Sending maps to explain. Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 42m X live this later this AM. MY THOUGHTS.3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 11m All modeling has the upper low placement in nearly the exact same location 1 am Mon. Every single model shown below. The question is strength. A old forecaster rule of thump is a a foot of snow for every closed contour.GFS is the only one that does that fast enuf for 6-12 in DCA.

Maybe the roll of the dice at this point.

Sunday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats my NWS forecast.

FIRST CALL SNOW MAP

Yea 27 is really downplaying this coming event.

Whiteout fog.

I hope we all the the most accumulation possible...then we can all move on to Spring

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-211145- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg 140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

After today and tomorrow the snow (wha'ts left) on the ground will be gone...except the piles of snow.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi storm 2 days out and the US GFS continues to have an epic storm in places where the euro has next to nothing I have no changes on my idea of 6-12 locally 18 DC to Boston, which almost seems like a mid-ground. This model battle should be something GVT officials are looking at. If GFS misses, what good is it? Why spend the money it took to develop this model if it consistently is least accurate vs the major models, though it beats up on the Navy NoGaps and CFSV2 , which is like beating up on a division 2 school if you are Division 1 The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 2h I will show the method I use for numbers later today You might find it interesting. Will do Bos,NYC, DC, State College and ACY

So is it still early for a final outcome of this storm, were within about 50 or so hours of the storm?