mahantango#1

ABC27 said it will be blustery after the storm on Monday.

Maybe someone dropped a Viagra in with latest gfs run to increase amplification.

BRRR!

Today marks the all-time record low for Harrisburg, too, at -22° back in 1994 after the blizzard

I'm wondering the same thing, and will there be wind ? Could be a bad setup with no power and those frigid temps...and if theres wind to boot.

Looks like you have me beat on that low temp. Mine is -2.2 Congratulations on your low!

-2 this morning.

I thought he was forecasting, because he used the word now.

If i read it right JB is going with 10-15 for Harrisburg. He said if he has to change anything it will be Thursday.

From SS STORM CHASE AND FORECAST WE ARE GETTING VERY CONCERNED!!!! DANGEROUS TEMPS / HEAVY SNOW STRONG WINDS / BIG SNOW DRIFTS ***READ THE POST!!!!!!! PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS UPDATE…. FIRST, IT’S STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN, HOWEVER….. 4-5 DAYS IS NOT THAT LONG TO PREPARE FOR A LARGE STORM. ———-Update 2PM 1/20———- FIRST, A FEW KEY POINTS….. 1. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS & WIDESPREAD STORM ON MODELS. 2. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A MAJOR SNOW STORM BIGGER THAN ANYTHING IN THE PAST 8-10 YEARS OR SO (FOR HERE) FOR THE AREA. 3. TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. HIGHS 12-15° With LOWS 1-3° AND WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. 4. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAKES POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS WILL BE A POWDERY LIGHT SNOW BUT THEN WE DEAL WITH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS. 6. LONG DURATION EVENT OF 24-48 HOURS IS EXPECTED. 7. WIDESPREAD EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST TO TN, NC, KY, OH, WVA, VA, MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, NYC, RI, MA, VT, and Vicinity. 8. AMOUNTS ON MOST MODELS ARE BETWEEN 10-20” with a few models showing Highest totals up to 28” for the Mid Atlantic! **VERY CONCERNED** This is not to cause fear or to hype the event, however, we must make everyone aware that this is an extremely dangerous storm system if it does indeed happen as currently model. It is absolutely possible that it does NOT happen. However, most models show that a major snowstorm is likely to occur starting SUNDAY morning and LASTING into Monday afternoon or evening. (Tuesday for the NE) We will be monitoring this extremely closely, however, in addition to 1 to 2 FEET of snow we must keep in mind that WINDS will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 in addition to DANGEROUSLY COLD temperatures WHICH we have not seen in MANY MANY YEARS. **WARNING** **PLAN NOW** **BUT KNOW WEATHER CHANGES** Those that have animals outside such as horses or livestock or those that work outside with people such as housing the homeless and making arrangements for people that are outside NEED to take necessary action now to protect life and property. **BE SMART ABOUT PLANNING AND REMEMBER THIS IS STILL 4-5 days OUT AND MIGHT NOT HAPPEN!!! Again, We want to be very clear that this may not happen, however, much of CURRENT guidance IS IN agreement that a dangerous storm MAY occur and affect MUCH of the Midwest and Eastern United States from North Carolina North to Massachusetts and everyone in between. We STRONGLY ADVISE everyone to stay weather alert, and monitor MULTIPLE outlets so you can monitor any changes that may occur with this storm system. ***PLAN DON’T PANIC*** THE INFORMATION ABOVE IS BASED OFF OF VERY CURRENT FRESH MODEL DATA (12Z) 1/20/26 AS WELL AS PAST MODEL DATA AGREEMENT. EVEN IF THE STORMS ADJUST SOME IN TRACK, IT IS SUCH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WHILE IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEATHER CAN CHANGE AND THE STORM COULD MISS US. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY RIGHT NOW THAT THAT HAPPENS AND WE RECOMMEND MAKING PLANS NOW IN CASE THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. THIS WOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AND RAIN SNOW LINE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. Always REFRESH and check the page for new updates and get the NEWEST and latest information on track and strength changes. This is current as of 2PM Tuesday 1/20/26. **BELOW is the VERY ACCURATE EURO MODEL*** (12Z)

DT: ✳️ CRITICAL UPDATE ON JAN 24-25 EVENT-- and the Tuesday 12z OP- GFS MODEL RUN... ✳️ ...... For the love of God will somebody please fix this appallingly bad model?... The Tuesday 12z GFS / GFS AI model again for some reason sinks the whole system southward -- to the point where gotten to the point of almost no snow in DC to NYC . I have said this before many times--the GFS model is trash for East Coast winter storms beyond 78 hrs . It always over does the cold air, shows suppressed system and always has storms move off the coast. Then once are within 72 hrs we see the pathetic .., " IT IS TRENDING NORTH !!!... I can pull up the GFS Models runs from days before January 2016 ... February 2014 ... December 2009 ... February 2010 ... 9 December 2018 .... and time after time after time the GFS model ALWAYS does this. ▶️PROOF? the 12Z Tuesday OP GFS & GFs AI models dont match its own ensembles. ◀️ Look I know there are folks out there that think I take the giant dump on the GFS model for with East Coast winter storms for no reason or because I simply don't like the solution. Well I don't live in Washington DC or Baltimore Philly so it this has nothing to do with what I want. It is a bad model Beyond 78 hours when it comes to East Coast winter storms. Always has been and then probably always will be. ⚠️ Finally the crappy GFS model actually INCREASE uncertainty especially for meteorologists that don't look at ensembles or people who are just weather presenters. ⚠️ You have one solution of 12 inches and then another model which gives a solution of under 2 inches. This sort of ridiculous variance is useless in forecasting. I mean what's the weather forecast going to be? ....Partly cloudy chance of snow with accumulations between 0 to 12 inches?... #Winter2026 #SnowLovers #MidSouthWeather #SoutheastWeather #MidwestWeather #EastCoastWeather #Snowfall #IceStorm #Snowstorm #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #mass #ctwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #indwx #kywx #tnwx

Sleepless nights are certain for the rest of this week.

another good video. there are a lot of answers to be determined yet https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013605353305317530?s=20

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

Last nights northern lights.

I think You need to cut your vacation short and head home immediately to potentially enjoy the festivities that mother nature could provide.

4 this morning.

We can't shovel potential and probability, only the real deal can be shoveled. but we'll take this at this point.

DT-WxRisk ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ Follow 0Z TUES UKMET/ EURO ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL MAPS: these maps are based on 10 to 1 snow ratios. Jan 24-25 will see arctic air in Mid Atlantic/ TN valley so these snow maps could be UNDERDONE #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #kywx #tnwx 4:49 AM · Jan 20, 2026 Everybody can reply 1 repost 11 likes 1 1 ‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬ · 55m 1 Join the conversation Create account

U gotta watch the video on the upcoming storm. I think he did a great analysis of the storm.

Great video presentation on the coming storm https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013290491517743459?s=20

From our great friend DT: THIS IS IMPORTANT --like REALLY fooking important. The amount of snow that the models are producing for this weekend JAN 24-25 in MD VA DEL WV and KY...and the historic severe ice storm that threatens the Carolinas Is mind-boggling. As I have said many times before over the past 30 years - really since the arrival of the European model- every major East Coast snowstorm was detected days in advance as a serious threat. Even more stunning is the amount of severe cold that comes in behind the storm. With the fresh cold deep snowpack across the southern Mid-Atlantic and KY the Monday AM ( 0z) European model is actually showing MIN temperatures in the period January 26-28 well below zero --even in Richmond and Washington DC and into NW North Carolina. Just mind boggling. The event begins Saturday which is now only essentially 5 days away because after all we have to get the forecast out by Thursday and Thursday night. !!! There is still of course some variation here. it could shift for the North and which case we would see heavy snow going over to a major ice storm in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the major snowfall would get into Philly New York and Southern New England.. But due to the nature of the upper air pattern that seems unlikely. I will be doing be video updates every days ...maybe 2x a day ...starting this evening and of course there is the NEXT 3 WEEKS Newsletter. As the new models come out and new data comes out I will be updating frequently over on my BLUESKY. I may make some posts over on Twitter but Twitter as you probably know is overrun with Bots and fake accounts and it's become just a monster shit show. DT: