mahantango#1

DT:

NWS can't make up their minds. This morning they my location getting 1-2 inches of rain. Now they dropped it down to half of that.

Sounds like tomorrow into Wednesday could be kinda wild for some of us.

Thoughts on this? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. · TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING ARE GONNA SUCK.... MAX WINDS WILL GUST FROM 60 - 75MPH !!! Que up the Creedence Clearwater Revival.... 1-4 inches of rain... Seriously folks... recall the summer Drought? well force of nature are making up for it. Frankly he model data here is kind of freaking me the hell out !! Expect significant power outages and if the power outage is a widespread the loss of power could be prolonged in some areas. Maybe it won't be but you know it is winter and it does get really cold at night without power Locations that typically flood and have flooded in the past few weeks will definitely flood again and that's especially true in New England and New York State. areas in New York Pennsylvania New England which got significant snowfall on Saturday. Rapid temperature rise on howling South winds Tuesday afternoon and evening will cause all that snow to melt very quickly.

Like him or not He admitted he got it wrong. Hats off to DT!: Wxrisk.com Now where I did get things really wrong was in Western Maryland and in south central Pennsylvania or I thought that the cold air was going to hang in longer

Mostly rain here. Got 3.25 snow

That band gonna make it up my way?

I was actually surprised when they issued the WSW so early yesterday. They usually lollygag around before they issue it, being their too conservative.

Snow has commenced here in the Pillow area!

Unfortunately there could be a lot of accidents today with this snow. As people have forgot (or their under the assumption their all-wheel or four wheel drive can handle anything without slowing down.)

Maybe Canderson can get snow measurements at MDT.

Maybe hes already Ruined from all this hype.

23/20 Is everyone excited for the snow? It's been awhile since most of us in Pa. got a storm of this magnitude. My biggest last year was 3", and for the season last year about 9". So I could get all of that in one shot today. Hopefully the storm delivers and doesn't fall apart and everyone will be happy. Happy shoveling!

DT'S Final call:

Were all doomed.

As long as their not all filled with clowns.

Well it's not our first rodeo...and it won't be our last.

That looks concerning.

got down to 23 overnight here. Will this be a wet snow event?

Yes its DT.

FIRST CALL MAP While the new technology and new weather models which have come out over the last 20 years are demonstrably better than what we saw back in the 1970s 1980s and 1990s… there is something to be said for adhering to the basic rules that have been around for 60-70 years when it comes to East Coast winter storms. And one of those basic rules is that if you have a coastal storm( known as a MILLER A East Coast winter storm) that comes up from the southern States, you HAVE to have a source of either Arctic or semi-Arctic air to the north that replenishes the cold air along the coastal plain. Otherwise the track of the LOW along or just off the coast will send relatively mild Ocean Air into the coastal plain and change the snow /sleet/ freezing rather quickly to all rain. That cold air source HAS to be 1) strong area of HIGH pressure that consists of either Arctic or semi-arctic air and 2) that HIGH has to be located in a certain position-- in the central / eastern Great Lakes and/ or into eastern Ontario and / or far northern New England and / or southern Quebec Canada. With respect to Saturday that cold HIGH pressure area simply does not exist. So the atmosphere that initially is cold enough to support winter precipitation in portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic and the interior portions of Maryland and Virginia does not last. And that is exactly what the short-range models are showing here on midday Thursday January 4th. This is why all the data here this morning and at midday have trended warmer in the lower portions of the Middle Atlantic region. you'll see that the snow amounts are reduced in the Shenandoah Valley and is a lot more ICE on these maps. I have moved the one inch snow line north of DC and just touching Baltimore. The start times are unchanged but I have expanded the ICE area. Because the mid levels of the atmosphere are warmer the ice concern is a bit more serious in the southern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the Virginia Piedmont. The 6-inch Snow Line is now barely touching the far Northwest tip of Virginia -mostly restricted to the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia and Western Maryland. North of NYC as well as NW NJ into the Poconos the Catskills and southern New England this looks like a very impressive snowstorm.

https://youtu.be/jlA-z0du1Pg?si=MsXoyyypQebvVfZ0

I'm glad someone remembered.