mahantango#1

Wxrisk.com · Because of the importance and size of the snowstorm FEB `19-20 I have decided to do a video update this evening. Briefly the 12Z European and the GFS models are moving to closer agreement. They take the LOW further east as opposed to NE which means much less sleet and freezing rain in Richmond Central Virginia and even now accumulating snow into Southeast Virginia and Hampton Roads. The early Saturday morning models ( 0z and 6z) European model as well as the Canadian the GFS and the British models had the surface LOW tracking a little further to the north which pushed the sleet and freezing rain mixture deeper into Central Virginia into the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey and had essentially all rain in Hampton roads. The new data however is says no thats not correct. There is a new piece of energy which comes in from the West Coast that forces the big winter storm LOW w pressure area in the Midwest and the Deep South to track east -- NOT NE -- which means it stays colder in all of Virginia Maryland Delaware with impressive if not huge amounts of snow. Now that doesn't mean this new solution here at midday on the European British model and the GFS and the Canadian (which are all colder and snowier) for all portions of Virginia Maryland and Delaware… will end up being the correct solution. That has yet to be determined. but for those who really like big snow --more important is that the Ensemble data is also taking the system further east so the LOW pressure area does not move into Southeast Virginia but instead tracks along the Carolina coast to Cape Hatteras and then off the coast. This is NOT great news for areas north of Philadelphia but it's fabulous news for snow lovers in Maryland Delaware Southern New Jersey Virginia and Western and central North Carolina

Temp 31.8 and basically rain here. 1in. of snow fell.

Looks like small sleet here with an occasional drop of rain. Temp 30.6

Just a little less than half inch of snow has fallen. currently very light snow here, seem to be missing the bulk of it.

Thats a good indication in about an hour and half that I'll changeover here too.

Hope you get a foot of the snow.

Wasn't the Canadian right a number of weeks ago when other models didn't show basically anything?

Light snow falling here.

31.5/20.7

Seeing first flakes here.

Yesterday I walked down to my mailbox to check to see if I got mail. On the way back I decided to cut through the yard. There was grass showing through the ice in the yard. I thought by walking on that ice on the grass I would break through the ice. Man was I wrong. I took a tumble. Now I hurt both wrists trying to break my fall. I landed on my one wrist that I broke about 29 years ago. The one I broke my vickular bone. The one I had a cast on for about 5 months. Its a little swollen and weak now. I don't think it's broken, I think it's sprained. I learned a lesson of don't walk on ice no matter if you think it's not that thick. The other hand I really stubbed my pinky finger. Hopefully my injuries get better.

Wondering if this snow were supposed to get will turn to rain sooner than expected since the temp. seems to be rising fairly rapidly.

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 3h Euro and Canadian in support of analogs we showed on Feb 11 that lead to the blizzard of 25 on the East Coast AI still way out at sea

Wxrisk.com poroesdnSti91lhu6g33gc1mug7548h828clah0mc51ht4407f1t1c7132h0 · UPDATE FRIDAY PM MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THREAT FEB 19-20 12Z FRI EURO HELD COURSE the wretched GFS wobble and came up with NEW totally different inconsistent solution. This is why the GFS is not my primary model of preference for east coast Winters winter storms in the 84-192 hr time frame

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 233 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 PAZ005-006-010>012-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-152245- /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0001.250216T1700Z-250217T1700Z/ McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Southern Centre- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Williamsport, Lancaster, Mansfield, Carlisle, Wellsboro, McConnellsburg, Gettysburg, Laporte, Sunbury, Renovo, Shamokin, St. Marys, State College, Bloomsburg, Ridgway, Berwick, Mount Union, Emporium, Lebanon, Hershey, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Huntingdon, Coudersport, Bradford, Lewisburg, Pottsville, Trout Run, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Chambersburg, Danville, and Lewistown 233 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts will occur just behind the cold front on Sunday afternoon, but gusty winds will continue into Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not touch downed lines and report any power outages to your electric company. Travel is highly discouraged due to slick roadways and the possibility of downed trees and power lines.

Wxrisk.com drtenoSspoi5m9a0g0hg08mfh9011hc0f8g87h574107h1m2lg1u55t5gt86 · Expect additional shorter weather videos Sunday Monday Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of this next potential significant snow storm. Tomorrow I hope to present the full review of the previous event on February 11. Again I'm getting the occasional request Asking where the donation button is but I can no longer do that because of the tax code. But you can send Starbucks gift cards if you are so inclined to this email [email protected]

I see a high wind watch has been issued.

28/18 here.

Maybe your call will stand.

That there could keep temps. from rising too fast.

So maybe tomorrow could be trending colder and keeping wintery precipitation a little longer than originally thought. If that happens maybe Sunday won't get as warm as was forecasted.

MU has a special discussion on tomorrow's event. He says probably more snow and sleet will tend to keep temps lower on Saturday.

From JB talking about gfs: give it credit. It looks like its hitting the warm advection snow tomorrow. I am still wondering if that low will wind up south of New england to hold the cold air into the interior northeast meaning one heck of a snow/ice event from NYC ( a few inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain, not rain and 50) to BOS

He probably can't hold a laptop while trying to hold on to that greased light pole. So his responses will be limited today.

Should there be any concern with the amount of precipitation and frozen ground and runoff that could lead to ice breaking up on smaller streams and possibly leading up to ice jams?