mahantango#1

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

25/11 - Jacksonville FL this morning.

Wow!

-3 here this morning.

JB said last night he has no changes on this hitting us. But he also said he might have to abandon his idea also. But right now this idea of a storm here, looks like burnt toast

DT"s discussion: https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social/post/3mdf2hbstpk2w?fbclid=IwY2xjawPlhP1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFtSnJVbEZtTTMzcVFSS2ZNc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHtea2emH2RI-PpInSW7tv9WUy4gopaTOkMyzIZUi3XiY9ngFkpFiThN78d-d_aem_vDuHang7dhGX9a-a5v_usw

 

 

 

 

‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

along with an incredible snow amount from Central NC to new England. BUT that is 1 **possible** outcome. The question is HOW does the Euro model do this ?? First It should be pointed out that other models are showing SIMILAR OVERALL solutions in various degrees. /2

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

Not surprisingly most of the GFS and GFS AI model runs have the MASSIVE Intense LOW somewhat further east (Typical behavior with th GFS mode and BIG East Coast LOWs) This image shows how this massive storm COULD develop in to bring about such an extreme snowstorm in the this weekend. /3

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

The first map shows a major s/w ( shortwave) running W-E from Iowa to the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature develops a closed 500 low that rapidly rotates as it heads SE. It swings around in SW- NE alignment, then a N to S, then NW-SE ( negative Tilt) alignment. /4 SEE IMAGE 2

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

The 500mb Low develops a negative Tilt ( NW-SE) and " captures" the surface LOW off SC and pulls it NW. The surface LOW reaches max size /intensity FEB 1 when the 500mb LOW the surface LOW become vertically stacked off of DEL / 5

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

Note on MAP C the 500 LOW tracks across NC then turns NE off the NJ coast and captures the surface Low. THAT IS THE KEY- any variation causes a big change with how the LOW develops & which part of the coast gets hit. The 18z Monday Euro; note the 500 LOW is in SC - NOT NC /6

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

This would allow the surface LOW to the captured further to the east which would mean the big cities of I-95 from Boston to DC wouldn't miss out on the best snows while eastern VA / eastern NC and Cape Cod would get blasted. /7 See 18Z op EURO

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

18Z EURO ensemble has significant cluster of LOWS further West /8

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Another day, another day with winds 15 mph above forecast. Blowing 40. 

I'll say it again and again, I had enough of this wind.

Now with this sleet on top of the snow will it drift when winds pick up tomorrow? I seen wet snow drift after  the winds dried it out.

That sleet on top of that snow made it heavy to shovel. 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Dare I say… best rate & flake size now in Marysville!

Same here as well!

Mostly snow here with some sleet. Almost 9" accumulation so far today.

6.75" snow so far.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSStateCollege/videos/1940417826859003

NWS State college is live now on Facebook.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

Hopefully the sleet stays away.

4 minutes ago, whiteout said:

 

Where are they hosting this?

 

I think on Facebook, thats where I got the post.

US National Weather Service State College PA's

We plan to go live at 9 AM to provide a brief update on today's significant winter storm. Check back here at 9 if you're interested!

I'm wondering just how far north the sleet will make it in The Susquehanna Valley?

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Juiced up!

We need this for the drought 

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Current dew point st MDT is -7

Impressive air mass that should help us.

My dp is -0.6

We're probably less than 12 hours from the onset of our first major snowstorm in years. I hope you all enjoy no matter the outcome 

Bernie Rayno said this morning that he thinks the sleet will have a tough time making inroads on these negative dewpoints. But he said he's been wrong and right before on similar situations. That's his personal opinion.

Nws introduced snow possibly mixed with sleet tomorrow in my forecast for tomorrow evening from 6to10pm

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

82/70: Key Largo

That sucks you have to deal with that summer heat and humidity. Come back home to reality where it's 14 here.

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol 

Sometimes the GFS gets lost. Remember just a few days ago where it has the storm. I guess we'll see if the models come around.

2.5 was my low.

Just now, canderson said:

Might not break 20 degrees for the next 8 days 

This is gonna be brutal. After years of relative so called mild winters, this is gonna sting.