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mahantango#1

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    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    We think the next 4 weeks will be consistently cold for Pennsylvania with at least 20 of the next 28 days featuring high temps below average. Not the news you wanna hear for your heating bills!

    615417619_1748061379940440_6029318000100370287_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s590x590_tt6&_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=GBynyqy_3-UQ7kNvwFeEyJv&_nc_oc=AdmH3GwqycxMLLOPGXmpjXPLxRGzAh3uoNPql8Q1P25fNY4MWZHySKz-zqPHCVLa8WI&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-2.xx&_nc_gid=KfRVyGG1ze8JoG2_HxKTKg&oh=00_Afo4vUnk-6yONHWWSChRRq62pbMU8YrKgQq5hcMWNLhWag&oe=696FF63A615818670_1748061383273773_2648960021915852166_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s590x590_tt6&_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=el6SJ7Zyzv8Q7kNvwEMZ8jP&_nc_oc=Adky6s4IskoTXpZ8WNzQfNxogmjgSnxpTbUABh_QKbgCl2mdDwePobM4Zfh9Diko_qs&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&_nc_gid=KfRVyGG1ze8JoG2_HxKTKg&oh=00_Afor6qQJHNw-ZmUGmtKgrJhPDir0wWvGWe7Ky7b-q7mG4w&oe=697018ED

     
    Brian Lamont
    What happened to the mild February prediction.
     
    • 8iuTX4LlGZO.pngAuthor
      Weather World
      Brian Lamont This forecast only goes through February 11. It’s still possible that the 2nd half of the month trends warmer, although this warm west/cold east pattern really is showing some stubbornness.
     
     
     

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    JB this morning: 

    As for snow. Week two with the negative PNA for a time vs the negative NAO means warm air will be able to fight and create oppurtunities, the risk is that storms pull far enough north before sensing the negative NAO so some places warm up ,. That is most likely from the mid miss Valley to about where I am, the northeast likes to get snow out of this as storms tend to shift south further east

    As far as the week 1 sucker runs. Look every once in while you get a digging trough in the northern branch that hits the jackpot. The most famous example is the blizzard of 78, a phase 7 running into 8 storm that came diving out of central canada. But most of the time unless you can have some warm advection, producing snowstorm out of height falls is a tough thing to do. Not saying it cant happen, but a wave with a strong baroclinic zone like for instance we saw in 1994 with a few events is a better bet, and week 2 looks like we have that window

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event.

    If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

    Hopefully we get our paralyzing snowstorm.

    OIP.hj84j5Qn0IiFnWAtnNqu9wHaDt?pid=Api&P=0&h=220

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    ABC27 said basically they are taking snow out of their forecast for the overnight hours tonight. Didn't even mention possible icy roads tomorrow morning. Nws on the other hand issued a HWO for possible slippery travel overnight and early tomorrow morning. I have a Dr. appoint in Camphill @7:30am tomorrow and i'm on the fence of canceling it, because of possible icy roads. And being about 40 miles from the place where my appointment is scheduled for, forecast matters. And I doubt Penndot will do anything until there is icy conditions or accidents, in my neck of the woods. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Maybe the possible icy conditions will not exist tomorrow morning.

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted 

    Flash freeze?

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

PAZ010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-150945-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain mixing with or changing to snow along with plummeting
temperatures below freezing could result in slippery conditions late
tonight into Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances.

    This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. 

    I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical. 

    It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell.  And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day. 

    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Wxrisk.com
    NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
    and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT
    One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome.
    When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast.
    I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here.
    In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models.
    That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours.
    Why does that happen ?
    As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there.
    For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean.
    On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010.
    The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly.
    With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical
     
     
     
     

    Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Need a comeback today on the models for the late week period.

    Things were looking good through 12z yesterday & then the wheels fell off.

    Hopefully today we see a better trend.

    I think even JB seemed to throw the towel in too. At least were not down to the 2 minute warning with no timeouts left and down by 7 points.

    • Like 1
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