mahantango#1

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

CTP won’t update 

6pm they will.

DT: WILL DO A NEW SHORT VIDEO THIS EVENING ABOUT JAN 15-16.

The last few runs on the operational GFS continued develop a huge snowstorm for the middle I thank New England coast. the model not me but the model is showing something like the January 2016 blizzard or Something like the 1909 or 1922 blizzards on the Mid-Atlantic coast. it's a very extreme solution. it's not out of the question but most of the data is against that kind of massive system.

 on the other hand the upper level energy on the 12z Saturday midday European model has taken a big step towards the GFS idea of a big Mid-Atlantic winter storm on January 15

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It will be interesting to see if they start changing their tune with their update this evening.

Time will tell. Maybe DT was right on his rant yesterday.

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

They’ll update it an hour before the storm hits.

Or when ther is 6 inches of snow on the ground and traffic is snarled.

22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The good difference in the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro last night shows well in the 48 hr. total precipitation through Friday early afternoon.

Quite the positive jump.

My NWS has no precipitation in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

6 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Rainfall total has sure dwindled down. Originally .76” then it went to .51”

30 degrees 

Yes those rainfall totals dwindled. What looked like a good rain event went to crap. Just like our snow storms they went to crap too so far this winter. Hopefully Blizz can pull that magic rabbit out of his hat 30 here also.

From DT: 

ABOUT  JAN 15-16   only 6  days away ....  

You undoubtedly will see some dumb weather weenie  trying to play Jim Cantore  OR some  meteorologist  on TV or social media attempt to tell you that this thing is a week away blah blah blah . That is  Bullshit 

Remember folks the purpose of issuing  weather forecasts is to get the weather information out to people /businesses. organizations BEFORE  the event actually begins. 

If the data is correct the event begins on January 15 which is 6 days away -do the math 

Anybody telling you this is 7 or   8 days away is full of shit-  either they are  stupid  or too lazy to be bother so they  bullshitting you  hoping that  they dont have to work too hard.

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.) 

DT is starting to get excited too. But I don't know if that includes Pennsylvania.

Good discussion with DT and others.

What a beautiful day to work in the yard. Sunshine and no wind! 48 here.

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be.   

Glad you have those records from way back!

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Been thinking the same.  Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops.  At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen.  Prepare for blizz's snowmaps 

I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again.

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Global ensembles overnight continued to ramp up snow amounts for week 2 through day 16.

We should at least have chances for Winter weather tracking starting next week & beyond.

Maybe the best of winter is yet to come! Waiting for that 2' snow storm, it's been awhile!

Much need rain is coming, as of now.

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion.

The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me.

Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

Wish we could get more of them this Winter.

Yes i'm rooting for a big, big snowstorm. One that keeps people home for a few days. But constant cold without any threat of storms to me imo is a waste of the cold. Maybe if i'd see the sun more here this winter it wouldn't' be so bad. It just seems so dismal out.

this increase in daylight will definitely help me out. Harrisburg sunrise and sunset times:

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Who wishes for warm weather in winter?

It's been a boring pattern. Not to mention the seemingly continuous cloud cover.