Decided to walk down to the creek and take some pictures while there still ice on the creek. That was the easy part. What wasn't easy was walking through that snowpack. Cardio workout for sure was not anticipated. I wonder just how thick the ice is? Questions remain. How long will the ice stay with warmer temperatures forecast? Will the ice slowly melt away? Will we get more snow adding to more water content to the snowpack? Or will we get a big sudden thaw with a huge rain storm? And then will we get the ice breaking up and producing ice jams and flooding? These questions will be answered in the coming weeks.

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

The good news is NWS has Increased their confidence in a winter storm during Sun-Mon timeframe.  The bad news is NWS has lowered confidence in the occurrence of precipitation Sun-Mon. Once again they're getting all the angles covered. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
444 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased confidence in winter storm during Sun-Mon timeframe
* Holding off on any winter weather advisories for possible ice
  accums for E/NE this evening-SW later tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light precip possible later today and this evening, with
light post-frontal snow showers and gusty winds over the
Alleghenies later tonight through Wednesday night.

2) Lowered confidence in occurrence of precipitation Sun-Mon.
Confidence in timing of possible precip is slightly higher.
Confidence in precip types/amounts remain low

 I have now lowered my confidence in them as they have increased confidence in lowering confidence.

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts on the Sunday Winter storm chance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Risk managing potential for Valentine`s Day
weekend storm

Aside from the 09/12Z GFS to some extent, an ensemble consensus
including ECMWF, CMC, NBM, and AI runs would lean toward an
increasing potential for wintry weather arriving by the second
half of Valentine`s Day weekend. That said, there is still plenty
of time and space between now and then. Wintry weather/impacts,
particularly details surrounding how much and what ptypes, are
uncertain/unclear. Confidence right now is on low side, but the
potential certainly exists and will need to be monitored in the
coming days.

Some tv mets. are writing the storm off.

1 hour ago, canderson said:

More 35-45 mph winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 

Oh great!

40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Soil? what does that even look like 

I guess we'll know in over a month what that looks like.

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

+5 here, but as I moved the Wunderground map westward, I saw the crazy negative numbers to the west. It looked like mahantango was in the minus double digits as well.

Only -5 here might drop a degree till sunrise. 

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s still windy - gusting into low 20s - that might help cap temps (again). 
 

 

Winds calmed down here, but you living near the river, I understand wind speed there will be higher.

Gonna be a very cold night tonight.

When is our next storm threat?

3.2 was my low. Looking forward to temperatures reaching the 30s this week. Seems like we have been in this ice box like forever. 

Sounds like road up here in upper Dauphin county in the open field areas, where the wind has a unobstructed shot for drifting aren't in good shape this morning. Some are down to one lane with several inches of snow on the road.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
224 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

PAZ027-028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-071000-
/O.UPG.KCTP.CW.Y.0011.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.W.0005.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.260207T0900Z-260208T0300Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Danville, Shamokin, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Selinsgrove, Lebanon, Lewisburg, Sunbury, Mifflintown, Lewistown,
Chambersburg, Berwick, Gettysburg, Carlisle, York, Pottsville,
Lancaster, Bloomsburg, and Newport
224 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Extreme Cold Warning, dangerously cold wind chills
  as low as 20 below expected. For the Wind Advisory, northwest
  winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM
  EST Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The
  dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

&&

$$

overnight low was 5.

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

Everyday we are getting closer!

How Many Days Until Spring?

Time Remaining Until Spring:

March 20, 2026

42 days

• 1 month 14 days
• 6 weeks
• 1,008 hours

1 minute ago, canderson said:

They’ll be higher 

I hope not.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060800-
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.A.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Sunbury, Gettysburg, Carlisle, Hershey,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Chambersburg, State College, Newport,
Mount Union, Lewisburg, York, Williamsport, Shamokin, Lewistown,
Lebanon, Harrisburg, Pottsville, Danville, Lancaster, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, and Huntingdon
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in layers. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia

Now NWS has wind gusts of 49 for my location on Saturday. Going to be brutal  i hope and pray the power doesn't go out.

Looks like the high temp. will be in the early morning hours on Saturday. Both the Euro and GFS have temps. near 10 or single digits during the rest of the day. Don't know why NWS is downplaying the winds either as euro and gfs have gusts over 40mph.

-7 this morning.

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Anyone know where to buy an actual metal grain shovel? Maybe grain shovel isn’t the right term - a flat shovel I can use for chopping ice and all. 

I have a pole that’s good for braking up ice but I’d love a real metal shovel to make it a bit easier. All I see is fiberglass nonsense. 

Did you check Tractor Supply they might have what you looking for.

Sounds like this upcoming clipper means business on Friday. Euro has highs on Saturday in the single digit's, GFS mid teens.

Just now, paweather5 said:

Just need it to be right this one time. 

Let's do this!