Met1985

The ensembles are catching onto this today as well. Doesn't look like an all out dumpster fire.

Yeah the torch has never materialized..We've been at or below normal essentially. I really don't think this so called torch will either. Glad I live in the mountains. I don't envy those that don't.

Hey it does look like we will see a nice upslope even here the first of next week.

More rain tonight. The river is way up but I don't see any flooding concerns. Maybe this weekend though.

Hey I'm just trying to stay in my lane. Just living in reality lol.

Still a signal but get your shorts on and tanning lotion out because it ain't going to snow ever again. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This is fake news guys. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This is what the rest of our winter is going to look like. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

No winter is over guys. Get ready for spring and the beach.

Carver say it ain't so. I was told winter is over now. Close the blinds, put out the grass seed, start getting ready for beach weather...

No freaking kidding! Yeah it was anything but warm.

Still a great signal for a significant upslope event during this torch. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This would definitely line up with what the ensembles are show for sure.

Excellent post Larry and some of what I was alluding to but you put it in a much better context than me. Keep it up warm or cold.

Lol rough crowd guys, rough crowd. I do understand yall outside the mountains. Hopefully everyone can score.

I can understand that for sure. What I don't understand is people thinking this was not advertised in the mid range forecast. Larry has posted some great statistics for a possible snowy February. Tennessee has scored and hopefully the prevailing pattern to come will help us score as a state in whole. I'll state this again looking at op runs after op run will only get you more and more frustrated. We all know that the time period for a significant change back to a much better pattern is going to be around February 8th and then some. So maybe use this time to take a little break and enjoy the weather we have.

For yalls area I do understand your frustration. It is way harder to get snow down yalls way than up here in the mountains. But I still wouldn't completely take your area out of the probability to see some snow this year.

Euro Weeklies. Heading into much better territory. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The GEPS also agrees on the solution from the 2nd to around the 7th. Again all the ensembles are heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Also the GEFS agrees. Heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

On the eps we go from torch on the 2nd to a much better look 5 days later heading in the right direction. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The indices look like they are heading in the right direction in the mid to long range. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I have to disagree on that. This winter has been nothing like the last few. Last winter we had what 2 cold spells? One minor snow. Yes snow wise things have been lacking but it's still only January 24th. Temp wise we have done much better. We've seen several weeks and days with below normal temps or near normal temps. Sure We've seen the 33 and rain but we are really close to scoring region wide. This warm.up has been advertised since last month. The weeklies had flipped to a warm January for a few runs then came back down to reality. Sure the weeklies have flipped here a d there but they have been the most stable out of the long range models to date. The eps has also done a great job noting the current pattern. It you watch run to run op solutions you are going to go crazy. Just the fact of things. And now the mjo is showing signs of moving through the warm phases quicker so the actual cool down coming back is moving up at this hour. No can kicking that I can see. No pushing this pattern back at all at this stage.

Yeah you are going to get hammered with rainfall.

For the most part we have been at average or below. We just haven't had a synoptic storm line up. But our friends to the west sure did make out nice. This warm up has been well advertised for over a month. This is not a surprise and people who act like this is a surprise do not follow this hobby well.