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Posts posted by Met1985
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42 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
We can't even win in fantasy land
You just did on the 06z! WTF are you smoking?
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2 hours ago, BooneWX said:
That was admittedly a fun run. One of those classic storms where if it’s coming down hard, it’s paste, if it’s not, it’s drizzle.
The pattern change seems to be firm at this point but I do wish we could just see a better signal for an anchoring high over the top. That run had a moderately strong high over the high plains but that’s not typically going to cut it. Of course, too early to parse details about the threat at this point but at least the signal has been there for days.
GAWX has been posting some exceptional stuff this winter. I'd follow him and the analogs especially this year considering we are in a NINO and it's facts that NIÑOS are back loaded.
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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:
Major Winter Storm again from the 06 GFS for PD for Northern NC/VA
Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
Yeah I just posted it. 18 inches for Asheville and several inches for the piedmont.
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I thought this was the mid range thread instead a thread to shit all over it? Some of yall in here are unbelievable and mods feel free to move if needed.
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16 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:
We are grasping at straws. It's over, folks.
Then go to the sanitarium thread.
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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
If I had a dollar every time the Weeklies were wrong I could have a great time at the local strip club
They have been decent this season as well. Sure they didn't get the cold right for this time period but they have been pretty good this season. As you should know cold doesn't always equat to snow.
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Yeah honestly the hell with just posting shit to be opposite of cold and snow.
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11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
It's not going to be fun lol
You need to move to Aspen Colorado.
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32 minutes ago, GaWx said:
The potential isn’t going away folks. Rather, it is persisting and as we get closer it is increasing. The potential on the 6Z GEFS for widespread significant wintry precip during a portion of Feb 15-20 in NC and more specifically from a classic Miller A GOM originating low throughout a large portion of the SE during a portion of Feb 17-20 is about as high as I can remember on any GEFS in recent years when looking out 11-16 days. When I consider not only the actual panels of the run but also similar model runs of the last few days along with the progged solid +PNA/-EPO/-AO, neutral to -NAO, a persistent 50/50 low, a strong El Niño related subtropical jet/split flow, and moderate+ Nino mid to late Feb climo, it is hard to hold in my enthusiasm for what MAY occur. And it is always a matter of what MAY and never nowhere near what WILL when looking out 11-16 days. The MAY is why we have these forecast discussion threads as opposed to nonexistent crystal ball threads.
Classic split flow:
Many members with Miller A GOM/off SE coast lows:
Yes sir Larry! Everything looks good from an overnight perspective of things. Looking at the big picture.
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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
It would be more promising with agreement from the EPS.
The EPS looks fine starting around the 13th. Classic west coast ridge east coast trough.
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4 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:
Really disappointed that this next system didn't work out. Did enjoy the warmer weather the past couple days.
We will score again.
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28 minutes ago, John1122 said:
Yeah I remember that year a few years back. Everything looked great! Then Europe went into the freaking freezer and if I'm not mistaken all we got out of it was a cool wet spring that started turning warm late...
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The cold is just coming into focus with the op models. The Weeklies and ensembles look on track but I mean I get it.
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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:
As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early. El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming. Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen. Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen. That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines. My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons. Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.
It's funny you post this because I've been keeping up with the winter out in Utah and Colorado and the mountains have just been getting hammered this year.
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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
It's a 3K and up winter for sure. Places below that like Spruce Pine, Asheville, Black Mtn, Waynesville, etc. Have all barely got any snow all winter.
Yeah it's definitely been elevation and sometimes elevation above 4k.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
in Southeastern States
Posted
Things look fine. Get the cold in here and something will hit. Too much energy flying around. The cold air is coming.