Met1985

6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

29 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Temps dropping now. Down to 44.

Fell off a cliff for a few minutes here with this line of showers. Went from 48 to 42 in about 8 minutes. Might have heard little hail but I didn't hop outside to check.

Yeah down to 40 now. It is dropping like a rock.

Temps dropping now. Down to 44.

If it makes you feel any better the NE is having a rough winter also. A lot of them just went from a winter storm 8-12 inches to literally nothing in 24 hours....

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Northern Madison County in western North Carolina...

  Mitchell County in western North Carolina...

  Northern Yancey County in western North Carolina...

* Until 1045 PM EST.

* At 940 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line

  extending from 16 miles southwest of Kingsport to 9 miles southeast

  of Greeneville to 12 miles west of Marshall, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...

  Burnsville, Hot Springs, Bakersville, Buladean, Bandana,

  Ramseytown, Green Mountain, Swiss, Faust, and Allenstand.

Some of tonight's short range models.

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45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, I do the opposite. My walks in the park are typically more frequent during winter than in any other season. But then again, I’m down in Savannah, where unenjoyable heat and humidity dominate much of the year and thus I enjoy walking in chilly conditions. Regardless, I can usually get in a good number of enjoyable walks well into April. The treadmill usually takes over starting in May.

Yes we visited Charleston a few weeks ago and we had lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and it was perfect for walking around the city.  We are going to get down to Savanah soon. You'll have to tell me all the good places to eat. I've heard Forsyth park is amazing. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Short range looks pretty decent for border counties tonight. Might even get a dusting in the valley (Asheville)

Yeah with the low staying further south this has helped us out a lot more with some flow snow.

HRRR looking decent with some last minute shifts south.

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36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

With as accurate as the Weeklies have been,  now I expect cold and snowy

I hope Mexico enjoys that colder weather. 

Euro a lot colder than previous run.

Flooding concerns starting tonight for the southern mountains. 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z UK is significantly warmer than the 0Z that I showed last night. So, the overall warmer trend of models vs yesterday continues. The flow is overall now being dominated by the moist subtropical/Pacific flow instead of a true split flow of a nice mix of N cold and ST moist.

That figures.  We just cannot get out of the state of LA Nina. 

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That was the perfect blend almost. The cold pressed just enough and the storm track was ideal

Yeah that's all we need. We don't need bone chilling cold because things will be suppressed too far south. 

Also I'll add that yes again the damn cold is in Europe.  They have had a heck of a winter out there.  From unusual blizzards to extreme boughts of cold. 

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It was a weenie run

That would work for several. 

This winter has been all about scoring whenever we have favorable weather.  That really goes for all around the country and not just us. From the NE to the Midwest, to the mountain west. It's just been that kind of winter for the entire country. 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's not a huge hit but I would take it in a heartbeat

That would at least get a lof of people some flakes. Literally from the mountains to the ocean. In the Euro we trust.

The only reason I asked is because it's a hot topic and can go down a ton of different rabbit holes. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing at all. Just trying to stay on topic. If yall want to challenge me then please do.

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

37 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Lol not trolling. The euro loops back to 7 and then low amp phase 8. Don’t love that.


.

The MJO hasn't and isn't the only driver this winter and the lead plots have been horrible this winter. There are MULTIPLE variables in the coming up pattern. 

32 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm cautiously optimistic we will score in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Obviously mountains have the best shot but north of 40 folks in the foothills could do well too 

Yeah I think that's about all we can be. Just getting a new pattern set will help. I'm watching the jet screaming across the SW which is interesting. 

The cmc and it's ensembles look fine.

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Overnight eps looks great in my opinion. GFS is out to lunch.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS is awful. When you are behind the Canadian it's a real shame. Idk why our supercomputers can't come up with better data/modeling. 

Seems like with each "update" the model just gets worse.

18z gfs ens looks good. Remember the longer in time the smoother the composites are.

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